On April 30, gold experienced a significant decline as anticipated, starting with a slight rebound at opening before trending downward. After the rebound above 4600 lost momentum during the midday session, short positions were initiated. Subsequently, the gold price continued to fall, hitting an intraday low of $4509 during the U.S. session. The short positions were closed with profit at $4520, securing a gain of $80. Later, gold stabilized somewhat, eventually closing at $4543, marking the third consecutive negative daily close.
Early Thursday, April 30, the Federal Reserve held rates steady as expected, but with as many as four dissenting votes—the first instance of such significant disagreement since 1992. Chair Powell concluded his final press conference as Fed Chair, entering his final phase in the role. He stated he would not act as a "shadow chair" and congratulated Waller on passing the Senate Banking Committee vote. Regarding policy stance, he indicated that rates are at an appropriate level to wait, with no need for hikes, and most members see no necessity to alter the dovish bias. The dismissal of rate hike possibilities and the moderate tone alleviated market concerns over an aggressively hawkish stance.
It can be said that Powell's moderate remarks served a stabilizing role. Markets are digesting the signal that "hawkish fears are overblown, and the bell for rate hikes has not yet rung." Additionally, with the domestic Labor Day holiday approaching tomorrow and many international markets closed, it is advisable to control positions to avoid liquidation risks from sharp fluctuations in overseas markets during the holiday.
Technically, gold's overnight drop to near $4510 found support at the lower boundary of the hourly chart's descending channel, allowing for a technical rebound. However, the rebound should not be overly extensive during the day. Initial resistance is observed near yesterday's high of $4600, which remains a short-term key level. A break above this level would still face heavy pressure at $4620 and $4650. Therefore, the primary intraday outlook for gold remains adjustment-oriented, with limited expectations for a technical rebound.
In summary, today marks the final trading session of April (monthly close). Key U.S. data to watch tonight include jobless claims, GDP, and PCE figures. With the Fed decision's bearish impact already priced in, gold is entering a phase of bottoming at lower levels, with the core trading range between $4520 and $4600. However, caution is warranted on Friday as some short positions may take profits, potentially shifting the bearish trend into consolidation.
Today's trading recommendations are as follows: Gold: Execute long positions between $4560 and $4558, with a stop loss at $4550, targeting $4600 to $4620. If the rebound lacks momentum, consider reversing to short positions. If support at $4540 is breached again, abandon long positions and switch to short, targeting further declines.
Key economic data and events to watch today, Thursday, April 30, 2026: 20:15 ECB Monetary Policy Decision 20:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 20:30 U.S. Core PCE Price Index Year-over-Year 20:30 U.S. Personal Spending Month-over-Month 20:30 U.S. Labor Cost Index Quarter-over-Quarter 20:30 U.S. Preliminary GDP Annualized Quarter-over-Quarter 20:30 U.S. Preliminary Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Quarter-over-Quarter 20:30 U.S. Preliminary Core PCE Price Index Annualized Quarter-over-Quarter 20:30 U.S. Core PCE Price Index Month-over-Month 20:45 ECB President Lagarde Press Conference 21:45 U.S. Chicago PMI 22:00 U.S. Conference Board Leading Index Month-over-Month
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