Copper mining stocks are trading broadly higher, with China Gold International (02099) climbing 8.26% to HK$196.20, MMG Ltd (01208) rising 5.75% to HK$9.01, China Nonferrous Mining Corporation (01258) gaining 4.29% to HK$15.81, and Jiangxi Copper Company (00358) advancing 4.51% to HK$37.08.
The rally follows a sharp tightening of global copper supply driven by a surge in US imports. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has broken through the $14,000 per tonne mark for the first time since June 3. Reports indicate that refined copper is flowing into the United States at the fastest pace in 12 years, with July shipments exceeding 200,000 tonnes 鈥?a record high for seaborne deliveries.
Analysts attribute the US stockpiling to a dual dynamic: tariff policy expectations and cross-market arbitrage opportunities, which have distorted trade flows. This is compounded by the rising strategic value of copper. Meanwhile, copper inventories in China have fallen sharply over the past three months, with Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warrants dropping to around 70,000 tonnes 鈥?a more than 80% decline from the March peak of 430,000 tonnes and the lowest level in over two years.
A Goldman Sachs report warns that the supply deficit outside the US could balloon from 60,000 tonnes to 640,000 tonnes, with inventory cover falling below 10 days. Looking further ahead, Everbright Securities notes that new copper mine projects remain scarce, while demand from AI data centres, electric vehicles, and grid upgrades continues to grow. This structural imbalance is expected to widen the annual supply gap, gradually pushing the copper price floor higher over the medium to long term.
Comments