CATL (03750) fell more than 4%. As of the time of writing, the stock was down 4.06%, trading at HK$477.2, with a turnover of HK$675 million. Since early December, lithium carbonate prices have surged relentlessly, breaking through the 100,000 yuan, 110,000 yuan, 120,000 yuan, 130,000 yuan, 140,000 yuan, and 150,000 yuan thresholds in just one month. This morning, the main lithium carbonate futures contract hit the daily limit-up, gaining 9% to 156,060 yuan per ton, marking a rebound of over 150% from the low point in June of last year. On January 9th, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an "Announcement on Adjusting the Export Tax Rebate Policy for Products Such as Photovoltaics." It states that, starting from April 1, 2026, until December 31, 2026, the value-added tax (VAT) export rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%; effective January 1, 2027, the VAT export rebate for battery products will be abolished. Huatai Securities believes this phased reduction in the battery export tax rebate provides a buffer period for the lithium battery industry. The brokerage anticipates two waves of front-loaded exports by battery enterprises before April 1, 2026, and again before December 31, 2026. Furthermore, Huatai Securities suggests that the reduction in the export rebate rate is expected to increase the overseas prices of the corresponding goods. Overseas production capacity, unaffected by the export rebate cut, stands to benefit from the rise in overseas prices, thereby boosting company profits. The firm is optimistic about leading battery manufacturers that have already established overseas production capacity.
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