This report addresses the following key questions: 1. Which sectors have seen recent price hikes, and how crowded are they? 2. Historically, what happens when price hike sectors become overly crowded? Can they rebound to new highs? 3. Which current price hike trends are likely to persist? 4. How should we view sectors where crowding has declined?
**Key Takeaways:** 1. Since October 2025, price hike sectors have regained attention, particularly in new energy, AI, and select commodities (metals, chemicals). Many of these sectors are nearing historically high crowding levels. Past experience suggests short-term overheating often leads to temporary corrections.
2. Historically, price rallies driven purely by sentiment/expectations tend to peak when crowding reaches the 90-100% percentile, followed by a correction. Without incremental catalysts, rebounds rarely surpass previous highs.
3. Sectors that break previous highs post-correction typically require new drivers: - **Fundamental validation**: For example, rare earth and memory sectors in 2025 saw sustained high crowding due to confirmed upward trends (earlier cases: coal, new energy). - **New catalysts**: Such as agrochemicals (phosphates) and copper in 2025.
4. Currently, two sectors may sustain price hikes: - **Industrial metals**: Supported by global rate cuts, economic recovery expectations, and supply constraints. - **AI-related chains**: AI remains a high-conviction growth area with potential catalysts (e.g., memory chips, energy shortages driving new energy demand).
5. **Buying opportunities**: Strong sectors often bottom when trading volume drops to 50-70% of prior peaks (e.g., defense, biotech, metals, optical modules in 2025).
6. **Low-crowding sectors**: Long-term themes like TMT and Hang Seng Tech, though not yet at historical lows, warrant monitoring. TMT may rebound when trading volume recovers to 20-25%, while Hang Seng Tech needs 30-35%.
7. **Tech sector adjustments**: Historical data shows tech sectors (e.g., semiconductors, new energy) average 40 trading days of correction with ~15% declines. Current adjustments (15-20 days, 15-20% declines) suggest patience is needed.
8. **Near-term strategy**: Favor calendar-driven plays (banks, white goods). However, with potential early Fed policy shifts and spring rally anticipation, growth sectors (e.g., TMT) could rebound if trading volume returns to 20-25%.
**Risks**: Global economic volatility; U.S. policy uncertainty; China’s macro policy shifts; inflation surprises; industry delays; policy misinterpretation; historical method limitations.
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