Xinda International: ZIJIN MINING's (02899) Global Diversified Mineral Portfolio Boosts Stock Performance

ZIJIN MINING (02899) has implemented a global strategy, operating multiple mining projects across 17 countries. This year, the group completed the acquisition of the Akyem gold mine in Ghana and the Raygorodok gold mine in Kazakhstan, directly increasing its gold reserves while expanding its footprint in West Africa and Central Asia. Additionally, the group finalized its controlling stake acquisition in Tibet Summit Resources (000408.SZ), enhancing its control over the Julong copper mine and adding strategic potassium reserves, further strengthening its copper and lithium resources.

Key insights from Xinda International include: 1. **Supply Disruptions and Tariff Risks**: Multiple large-scale mines halted production this year, impacting global supply, with market forecasts repeatedly downgrading copper output for 2025 and 2026. Expectations of a potential 25% U.S. tariff on refined copper by mid-2026 have prompted inventory shifts to the U.S., exacerbating shortages elsewhere.

2. **Triple-Demand Drivers: AI, Green Energy, and Defense**: Copper, a critical conductor, is widely used in transportation, defense, and power grids. Despite economic uncertainties, demand is projected to grow, driven by AI investments (e.g., the U.S. Genesis Mission), green energy transitions, and defense upgrades. China’s newly announced GHG reduction targets and Europe’s increased defense budgets (e.g., Germany) will further support demand. The IEA estimates that by 2035, planned mines will meet only ~70% of global copper needs.

3. **Strong Financials on Volume-Price Synergy**: ZIJIN MINING’s 2024 five-year plan targets a 49% increase in copper output (1.5–1.6M tons) and a 47% rise in gold output (100–110 tons) by 2028. In Q1–Q3, gold output rose 20% YoY to 65 tons, while copper output grew 5% to 830K tons. With rising metal prices, revenue climbed 10% YoY to RMB254.2B, and net profit surged 55% to RMB37.86B, beating expectations. Operating cash flow jumped 44% to RMB52.11B, underscoring robust fundamentals.

4. **Upside Potential**: Bloomberg consensus forecasts a 28% YoY rise in 2026 EPS to RMB2.475, with shares trading at ~12x 2026 P/E. Further copper/gold price highs—fueled by supply-demand imbalances—could lift earnings estimates, supporting stock performance.