According to Woofun AI, driven by expectations of progress in US-Iran peace negotiations, international oil prices fell by more than 6% in a single day, while gold and silver prices rose by more than 2% against the trend. Bitcoin, however, failed to follow the rally, instead pulling back and hovering around $76,000.
The easing of Middle East geopolitical tensions directly hit the energy market. Iran's negotiating team completed talks with the help of Qatari mediators and is discussing a revised peace plan. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the negotiations were progressing well, and if the US lifts its port blockade, Iran could implement seven peace measures within two days and may reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, US President Donald Trump had previously rejected the related proposals, and Iranian sources are more concerned that the US may launch another attack rather than reach an agreement.
In the precious metals market, gold rebounded after experiencing its worst October since 2008, while silver recovered to $50 per ounce. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that gold's market capitalization increased by $428 billion within 4 hours, mainly due to rising asset valuations rather than new capital inflows.
Although falling oil prices help ease inflation concerns and reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, bond yields and the US dollar remain key variables. In contrast, Bitcoin has shown weakness, falling 0.06% over the same period, mainly constrained by the recent $6.3 billion Binance hack and $643 million in outflows from the Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT.US). Glassnode estimates that the average cost of ETF and institutional Bitcoin purchases is approximately $80,000 to $81,500, and the current price below this range has put some investors under pressure from unrealized losses.
Market focus has shifted to the US midterm elections on the 3rd and the employment report on the 6th. If the US-Iran negotiations break down and trigger an oil price rebound, or if employment data comes in stronger than expected, both could reignite concerns about interest rate hikes and create new downward pressure on risk assets.
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