Abstract
Autodesk will report fiscal fourth-quarter results on February 26, 2026 Post Market, with consensus pointing to revenue around $1.91 billion and adjusted EPS near $2.65; investor attention centers on subscription momentum, margin discipline, and updates to guidance.Market Forecast
For the fiscal fourth quarter, market projections indicate Autodesk’s revenue at $1.91 billion, up 17.17% year over year, and adjusted EPS at $2.65, up 23.81%; EBIT is estimated at $699.20 million, rising 23.30% year over year. While the company has not provided formal margin guidance for this quarter, the most recent reported gross profit margin of 92.44% and net profit margin of 18.51% set a high-quality baseline for profitability as investors assess potential sequential changes.The main business remains subscription and maintenance, supported by renewal durability and upsell of platform capabilities; management’s recent communications emphasize cloud and AI investments as near-term priorities for monetization. The most promising revenue engine is subscription and maintenance at $1.74 billion last quarter, complemented by a smaller $111.00 million “Other” bucket; company-wide revenue grew 18.03% year over year, underscoring the demand profile heading into the print.
Last Quarter Review
In fiscal third quarter results, Autodesk delivered revenue of $1.85 billion, a gross profit margin of 92.44%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $343.00 million, a net profit margin of 18.51%, and adjusted EPS of $2.67; year over year, revenue rose 18.03%, EBIT increased 21.82%, and adjusted EPS advanced 23.04%. Net profit increased 9.58% sequentially, reflecting operating leverage on strong subscription dynamics.A notable financial highlight was broad-based outperformance versus internal and external benchmarks: revenue exceeded the prior estimate by $46.08 million, adjusted EPS surpassed consensus by $0.17, and EBIT outpaced projections by $38.08 million. Main business concentration remained high—subscription and maintenance delivered $1.74 billion, representing 94.01% of total revenue—while overall revenue grew 18.03% year over year, reinforcing durability in Autodesk’s largest cash-generating stream.
Current Quarter Outlook
Subscription and Maintenance Momentum
Subscription and maintenance is the core driver of Autodesk’s quarterly performance, and expectations hinge on sustained renewal behavior, cross-sell across suites, and adoption of platform features that increase average contract value. The latest consensus implies total revenue of $1.91 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.65, both supported by consistent customer engagement and delivery of expanded capabilities across design, engineering, and collaboration workflows. The recent workforce reallocation and cost actions directed toward cloud and AI initiatives are intended to improve operating efficiency, positioning subscription economics to benefit from lower overhead and increased product velocity.Autodesk’s high gross margin baseline (92.44% last quarter) suggests limited hardware or service-cost drag and enables more incremental profitability from incremental revenue. The net margin backdrop (18.51% last quarter) also sets the stage for operating leverage if sales efficiency remains stable and if discretionary spend stays contained following restructuring. Investors will monitor sequential margin outcomes closely, given that net profit rose 9.58% quarter over quarter in the prior period and that EBIT and EPS grew faster than revenue year over year, indicating healthy mix and disciplined expense controls.
Beyond renewal stability, subscription growth typically gains from upselling multi-product bundles and platform-centric features that compress time-to-value. In this quarter, the focus is on whether that bundling and platform strategy sustains elevated growth rates into seasonally strong renewal periods. If management pairs product innovation—especially around AI-enhanced workflows—with go-to-market execution that captures incremental seats or higher-tier subscriptions, the subscription and maintenance line could again deliver notable upside relative to revenue estimates.
Autodesk Construction Cloud and AECO Execution
Autodesk highlighted strength in AECO-related solutions during recent communications, with sustained demand dynamics across data centers, infrastructure, and industrial building programs contributing to execution. That set-up supports positive expectations for Autodesk Construction Cloud and adjacent AECO workflows as customers drive standardization, collaboration, and compliance across complex projects. The key question for investors is whether fiscal fourth-quarter revenue acceleration to $1.91 billion, up 17.17% year over year, is accompanied by incremental traction in these project-centric solutions that deepen stickiness and cross-sell opportunities.The AECO momentum is particularly relevant because it often catalyzes adoption of multiple tools under a single subscription, enhancing attach rates and retention. As ASSC (Autodesk Construction Cloud) integrates more data, design, and field management features, customers benefiting from complex build-out cycles may continue to expand usage, supporting sustained double-digit revenue trajectories at the consolidated level. If Autodesk’s integration of cloud workflows continues to streamline project delivery and aligns to enterprise procurement frameworks, the company could sustain high-value expansions among large accounts even if smaller project cycles fluctuate.
Looking at profitability, the ability to scale AECO solutions without commensurate service cost inflation supports the gross margin baseline, while subscription delivery keeps operating expense absorption efficient. For this quarter, investors will gauge how AECO traction translated into both top-line momentum and bottom-line resilience, especially as management directs resources to areas of accelerating product-market fit.
Near-Term Stock Drivers and Watch Items
Two immediate catalysts are the EPS outcome versus the $2.65 consensus and revenue outcome versus the $1.91 billion consensus. Because adjusted EPS is expected to rise 23.81% year over year and EBIT to rise 23.30%, investors are primed to see whether operating leverage again outpaces top-line growth, a dynamic that often supports valuation expansion when coupled with confident guidance. Any commentary on pricing actions, renewal rate durability, or cross-product attach can materially influence forward estimates, given the overwhelming contribution of subscription and maintenance to total revenue.Management’s stated shift of investment toward cloud and AI has set expectations for sustained innovation productivity and potentially improved unit economics; this quarter, investors will look for specifics on how AI capabilities are deployed across Autodesk’s portfolio and how that translates into differentiated value in subscription tiers. Autodesk’s announced investment partnership with World Labs at $200 million underscores the company’s ambition to advance physical-world AI research and model development. Any update on how those initiatives feed near-term product roadmaps will be a meaningful signal for monetization pathways and time-to-revenue.
A separate watch item is litigation involving Google over the “Flow” trademark on AI-enabled media production software. Investors will assess both direct and indirect implications, including brand clarity and competitive differentiation across creative workflows. While legal outcomes are uncertain, management commentary could address product positioning and customer communications to mitigate confusion risk. Additionally, given the high gross margin baseline, small shifts in operating expense and revenue mix can produce outsized EPS changes; the interplay of restructuring benefits, new product investments, and go-to-market efficiency improvements will be closely evaluated against margin expectations.
Analyst Opinions
Across recently published views since January 1, 2026, the ratio of bullish to neutral/bearish opinions is solidly favorable to the bullish side. Notable buys include Berenberg Bank maintaining a Buy rating with a price target of $370.00, Goldman Sachs issuing a Buy rating, William Blair reiterating Buy with the thesis of restructuring-driven efficiency and reinforced outlook, Morgan Stanley maintaining Buy on strong performance and attractive valuation, and RBC maintaining an Outperform stance while adjusting its price target. Meanwhile, neutral views—such as Bank of America’s Hold and a Goldman Sachs Hold—are fewer. Based on this distribution, the majority view is bullish.The positive case hinges on several data-backed pillars relevant to the upcoming print. First, consensus forecasts for the quarter indicate revenue of $1.91 billion, up 17.17% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $2.65, up 23.81%, which, if delivered or exceeded, would reaffirm execution quality observed last quarter when revenue, EPS, and EBIT all surpassed estimates. Analysts emphasize the company’s subscription mechanics and operational discipline, noting the 94.01% revenue share of subscription and maintenance last quarter and the high gross margin baseline of 92.44% that supports faster EPS expansion relative to revenue. These characteristics underpin confidence that EBIT growth can continue to outpace top-line growth in the near term.
Second, the bullish cohort points to management’s prioritization of cloud and AI, including tangible steps such as the $200 million collaboration with World Labs to accelerate physical-world AI research and model-level cooperation. Analysts expect that these efforts will translate into product enhancements and tiered value propositions that help sustain upsell and cross-sell within subscription. The link between investment focus and go-to-market leverage is at the core of the Buy theses, especially where innovation can improve customer outcomes across design, collaboration, and production workflows without materially increasing delivery costs.
Third, the majority view recognizes that Autodesk’s fiscal third quarter demonstrated robust momentum—revenue up 18.03% year over year, adjusted EPS up 23.04%, and net profit up 9.58% sequentially—signaling that cost actions and sales execution can deliver operating leverage even in the face of mixed macro signals. Analysts argue that if the company reiterates or raises full-year parameters after the fiscal fourth quarter, that would validate confidence in subscription growth durability and margin progression.
Finally, bullish analysts acknowledge watch items—such as the trademark litigation with Google—and incorporate them as manageable uncertainties rather than thesis-defining risks. In their view, clarity around product naming and customer messaging can mitigate confusion, while ongoing product delivery and a sharpened innovation roadmap should anchor customer retention and expansion. On balance, the majority of institutions expect Autodesk to meet or exceed quarterly benchmarks and to offer guidance that maintains or slightly lifts the path for revenue and EPS, aligning with Buy or Outperform ratings issued in recent weeks.
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