Guoyuan International released a research report stating that the new import beef quota system will alleviate domestic supply pressures. Coupled with the ongoing reduction in domestic cattle herds, domestic beef prices are expected to continue rising, directly boosting the profits of pastoral companies. The firm recommends attention on: YOURAN DAIRY (09858). Guoyuan International's main views are as follows.
The Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement deciding that from January 1, 2026, safeguard measures on imported beef will be implemented in the form of "country-specific quotas with additional tariffs imposed beyond the quota." A 55% additional tariff will be levied on portions exceeding the quota, with the safeguard measures to be in effect for three years.
On December 31, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce officially announced the ruling on implementing safeguard measures for imported beef. The investigating authority ruled that "the increase in the quantity of imported beef has caused serious injury to the Chinese domestic industry, and there is a causal link between the increased imports and the serious injury." It was decided to adopt safeguard measures in the form of "country-specific quotas with additional tariffs imposed beyond the quota," effective for three years.
This quota system primarily targets countries with large import volumes. Taking 2026 as an example, the beef import quota is set at 2.688 million tons. Brazil's allocation is 1.106 million tons, Argentina's is 511,000 tons, Uruguay's is 324,000 tons, and Australia's is 205,000 tons. For 2027 and 2028, the beef import quotas are set at 2.742 million tons and 2.797 million tons, respectively. A 55% tariff will be imposed on quantities exceeding each country's quota.
Imported beef accounts for a high proportion, and the quota system is beneficial for domestic beef prices. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's beef imports in 2024 reached 2.87 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. Imports from Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Australia were 1.34 million, 590,000, 240,000, and 210,000 tons, respectively, accounting for 46.6%, 20.6%, 8.4%, and 7.4% of the total. China's domestic beef production in 2024 was 7.79 million tons, meaning imported beef volume exceeded 30% of domestic production. From January to November 2025, China's beef imports were 2.59 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.38% year-on-year.
Based on past years' data, the new quota volumes are estimated to cover approximately 70-80% of the beef imports from these countries, with the remaining portion subject to the 55% tariff. Since 2025, the industry has begun reducing breeding cow herds, and tightening supply has pushed beef prices higher. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the price of beef in China on December 26, 2025, was 53.5 yuan/kg, a significant increase of 14.4% year-on-year. This quota system will further optimize domestic supply, benefiting domestic beef prices.
Comments