深度解析：散户又嗨翻，这轮逼空的诱因和后果是什么

格隆汇2021-06-03

周三，AMC院线一度暴涨126%，数次初次熔断，截至收盘涨幅仍高达95.5%；3B家居大涨超62%，高斯电子大涨超68%，黑莓涨超31%，Express涨38%，游戏驿站涨幅亦超过13%。WSB概念股的再次振作，意味着年初那场惊世骇俗的散户逼空大战偃旗息鼓后，时隔数月，美国散户们卷土重来。只不过这一次，舞台最中央的主角从游戏驿站换成了AMC。昨日大涨后，AMC的市值已突破300亿美元，超过游戏驿站...

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again”。5月23日早间，万达集团发布消息，公司已全部退出AMC董事会。一纸通告给长达9年的跨国联姻画上了一个句号，并且累计回笼了14.76亿美元资金，相较最初7亿元的投入也赚了一倍有余。但截至周三收盘，AMC市值飙升至313亿美元。以此估算，万达至少少赚了25亿美元，约合159亿人民币。万达虽然少赚，但不能说亏，AMC的大涨也跟万达清仓无关。事实上，万达离场之后的一周内，AMC累计暴涨357%。但年初至今，AMC累计涨幅已经超过3000%。因此AMC涨不涨，跟万达关系不大。本次大涨真正的导火索，是AMC两天前发布的一则融资公告。当地时间6月1日盘前，AMC宣布向Mudrick Capital Management发行850万股A类普通股，将融资2.305亿美元，增发价格为27.12美元/股，较上周五的收盘价高出3.8%。公告显示，这笔融资将用于收购影院资产、租赁以及投资，并探索去杠杆化的机会。消息传来，股民振奋。当日开盘后再次大举买入AMC院线，股价一路高歌猛进，盘中一度大涨超28%，最终收盘涨幅仍高达22.66%，美股盘后，AMC院线继续拉升，大涨超18%。参与此次融资的Mudrick Capital可不是泛泛之辈，这家机构是AMC院线的重要股东，在去年12月底和今年1月初对AMC进行了大手笔投资，帮助后者避免了被破产清算。在年初的第一波散户狂潮中，不但连续飙升的股价给Mudrick带来了丰厚回报；并且它本身也通过做多AMC院线的债务和股票期权，并参与游戏驿站的交易，获利超2亿美元。这家会赚钱的机构，这次又狠狠秀了一把操作。6月1日刚刚参与了AMC的融资，当天盘中，Mudrick便抛售了其持有的所有AMC院线股份。按AMC周二最高价33.53美元计算，Mudrick一天以内最高可获利超过3.2亿人民币。Mudrick的突然倒戈并没有熄灭散户们大举买入AMC的热情，AMC涨势随之又来了一个小高潮。大股东都撤了散户们还不撤，是谁给了他们这么大的信心？2 谁嬴谁输，谁是下一个？WSB论坛最火的话题从游戏驿站到狗狗币，最近又变成了AMC。这是个以“YOLO”为口号，以“梭哈”为行动准则的“专业炒股论坛”，一场硬仗打下来，又有用户得意洋洋晒出了自己的战绩。这场大战，AMC肯定是躺赢。随着股价水涨船高，CEO阿隆持股价值从年初的约800万美元涨至超过2.2亿美元；套现离场的大股东Mudrick一天狂赚3.2亿人民币；最早买入的散户们当然也赚得盆满钵满。那么是谁亏了？当然还是空头们。数据显示，5月24日以来，做空AMC的机构累计损失超过18亿美元，今年以来的亏损额更是超过25亿美元。今年前5个月，做空游戏驿站、AMC院线两家公司股票的华尔街空头累计亏损达到了92.5亿美元，折合人民币接近600亿元。做空本就是愿赌服输的事，S3 Partners的最新数据显示，AMC院线有超过20%的流通股，即约9500万股被做空。随着股价上涨，这些做空AMC的对冲基金将不断亏损，直到没有足够的保证金，只能被迫清盘，从市场上买回股票。这就是所谓的逼空。数据来源：wind空头清盘、被迫变多头，也就是散户大获全胜之时。这时卖出股票，散户可以将利益最大化。昨天AMC一路跳涨，最高到72.6美元，几乎超过期权最高行权价73美元。所以说，这场战斗还没到结束的时候。如果今晚散户再次把AMC股价拉到73美元之上，那就又有空头要遭殃了。理论上，那时这些做市商已经没有了任何对冲手段，如果股票涨幅够大，足以让一批中型做市商破产。问题来了，年初那波以游戏驿站为首的逼空大战，已经让不少空头们吃足了苦头，为什么他们还敢干。就像WSB论坛中所言：人们骂我们是智障，因为我们一次又一次买这些股票，但为什么那些空头要一次又一次做空它们？华尔街的大佬们不看好这只股票的原因，在于AMC公司连年陷入亏损。2017年至2020年，AMC分别亏损4.87亿美元、1.1亿美元、1.5亿美元和45.9亿美元，今年一季度继续亏损5.67亿美元。重资产模式下，连年的亏损使其债台高筑。目前，AMC总负债规模达127.8亿美元，其中流动负债15.9亿美元，而其账面现金及现金等价物仅有8.1亿美元，资产负债率高达121.8%。同时，疫情之下，AMC院线还面临包括院线窗口期缩短、上映电影数量减少、影院关闭，和流媒体平台进攻等不利因素。因此Mudrick称，AMC院线股价被明显高估，它不是一只可以长期投资的股票；来自MKM Partners的分析师Eric Handler则对AMC给出了只有每股1美元的目标价。按常理来说，分析师们不看好这只股票再正常不过。不过，问题在于AMC总共有320万个人投资者股东，散户持股比例达到总股本的80%。这意味着，无论基本面如何，只要股票还没退市，哪怕再多华尔街机构唱空，如果散户们团结一致，这只股票就能永远涨下去。彭博分析师Geetha Ranganathan表示，“个人投资者希望通过挤压做空者和对冲基金来改造华尔街”。散户们对于战胜华尔街大佬们的游戏乐此不疲，这就是AMC坐上火箭升空的原因。3 结语围绕着AMC的多空博弈还没结束，今晚其股价能否拉上73美元关口将成为重要节点。与此同时，逼空大战时，对冲基金不得不抛售一些其它股票来换取流动性，这将使整个美股再次掀起血雨腥风。这一切归根结底，还要追究到2020年疫情时，美联储货币超发程度创下历史之最，极低的借贷成本和溢出的流动性推高了各种资产的价格所致。WSB概念卷土重来，彰显了散户们的力量依旧恐怖。去年AMC一度面临破产危机，但其一次次度过风险，资金链始终未曾断裂。最新一笔融资后，AMC的债务危机暂时缓解。疫苗渐渐普及，疫情最严峻的时刻也快要过去。AMC的前景看起来一片光明，再加上散户们昂扬的热情，这一次，空头们恐怕依然不会有好果子吃。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":118870255,"gmtCreate":1622728987677,"gmtModify":1704189939948,"author":{"id":"3582715449264548","authorId":"3582715449264548","name":"SKng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e52e96a8730bf5558b24e3c5fb2ef030","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582715449264548","authorIdStr":"3582715449264548"},"htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118870255","repostId":1164838585,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4740113,"gmtCreate":1623639199286,"gmtModify":1663228710544,"authorId":3582715449264548,"author":{"id":3582715449264548,"idStr":"3582715449264548","authorId":3582715449264548,"name":"SKng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e52e96a8730bf5558b24e3c5fb2ef030","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":118870255,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑][微笑][微笑]","text":"[微笑][微笑][微笑]","html":"[微笑][微笑][微笑]"},{"id":4618764,"gmtCreate":1623075536792,"gmtModify":1663228134232,"authorId":3582715449264548,"author":{"id":3582715449264548,"idStr":"3582715449264548","authorId":3582715449264548,"name":"SKng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e52e96a8730bf5558b24e3c5fb2ef030","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":118870255,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Hi","text":"Hi","html":"Hi"},{"id":4570661,"gmtCreate":1622765545339,"gmtModify":1663227916698,"authorId":3582715449264548,"author":{"id":3582715449264548,"idStr":"3582715449264548","authorId":3582715449264548,"name":"SKng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e52e96a8730bf5558b24e3c5fb2ef030","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":118870255,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Hi","text":"Hi","html":"Hi"},{"id":4570656,"gmtCreate":1622765537096,"gmtModify":1663227914833,"authorId":3582715449264548,"author":{"id":3582715449264548,"idStr":"3582715449264548","authorId":3582715449264548,"name":"SKng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e52e96a8730bf5558b24e3c5fb2ef030","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":118870255,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Hi","text":"Hi","html":"Hi"},{"id":4566891,"gmtCreate":1622737498396,"gmtModify":1663227896248,"authorId":3582715449264548,"author":{"id":3582715449264548,"idStr":"3582715449264548","authorId":3582715449264548,"name":"SKng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e52e96a8730bf5558b24e3c5fb2ef030","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":118870255,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Hi","text":"Hi","html":"Hi"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":47,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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