According to the domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism, the 15th price adjustment window for the year will open at midnight on July 31.
Driven by a general uptick in international crude oil prices during the current pricing cycle, retail prices for refined oil products in China are expected to rise. Multiple institutions estimate that filling a 50-liter tank of 92-octane gasoline could cost about 27 yuan more.
The global crude oil market has experienced a "rollercoaster" pattern within this pricing cycle, initially climbing sharply before falling back. A spike in international oil prices was triggered by the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran conflict. However, prices have since retreated rapidly as the situation has eased periodically.
Over the past five trading sessions, New York crude briefly surged above $90 per barrel before suffering several consecutive days of heavy losses. Specifically, as of July 29 (the 8th working day of the cycle), institutional calculations show the reference crude oil change rate remains above 13%, projecting increases of 700 yuan per ton for gasoline and 675 yuan per ton for diesel.
Converted to retail prices, 92-octane gasoline is expected to rise by 0.56 yuan per liter, 95-octane gasoline by 0.60 yuan per liter, and 0-diesel by 0.58 yuan per liter. Currently, the national average retail fuel prices stand at 7.4 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 7.9 yuan per liter for 95-octane gasoline, and 7.05 yuan per liter for 0-diesel.
Institutions predict that after this price hike takes effect, 92-octane gasoline in many parts of China could once again exceed the 8 yuan per liter mark, while 95-octane gasoline will fully return to the "8 yuan era." (Note: The specific adjustment amount is subject to the official announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission.)
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