November 03: In the previous trading session on Monday (November 2), international gold prices halted their decline and rebounded to close higher, driven by strong technical support buying demand, as well as consecutive negotiations held in Doha between Iran and Qatar regarding ending the conflict, with Iran's president stating that expectations for progress in diplomatic mediation significantly eased the risk of Middle East crude oil supply disruptions, causing international oil prices to plummet sharply.
This eased the energy variable that had previously pushed up inflation expectations, and combined with a weakening US dollar index lending support to gold bulls, allowing the metal to recover part of Friday's losses, though it remains under pressure, with further downward adjustment risk still present before it can return above the rising trendline.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened higher in the Asian session at $3,883.02 per ounce, first recording an intraday low of $3,880.09, failing to fill the gap, and then rebounded from there, maintaining overall consolidation above the $3,990 level throughout the day.
After the US session opened, bulls regained momentum and pushed prices higher, extending into the midnight period to record an intraday high of $3,969.99, before encountering resistance and pulling back, ultimately closing at $3,946.37.
Compared to Friday's close of $3,872.76, the daily amplitude was $97.23, with a gain of $73.61, or 1.9%.
Looking ahead to today, Tuesday (November 3): International gold opened slightly higher before weakening in a corrective move, continuing the pullback pressure from yesterday's late session and profit-taking demand from the support bounce.
The short-term bias leans toward bottoming consolidation awaiting a rebound, but the medium-term outlook still carries expectations of new lows.
For prudent bullish positioning, either wait for a return above the trendline to follow the momentum, or wait for a pullback to the 30-month moving average support to look for a low-point rebound.
Before that, any fluctuation is阶段性 in nature, and attention should be paid to capturing the range.
During the day, attention can be given to US September JOLTs job openings and US September factory orders monthly rate data, with market expectations leaning bearish for gold prices.
However, Trump currently stated he is in no hurry to make a strike decision after the midterm elections, and Vance also expressed that both Trump and himself feel good about the prospects of US-Iran negotiations.
Concerns about the oil market outlook have eased somewhat, which will weaken rate hike prospects and limit gold's downside, so short-term gold prices are biased toward range-bound fluctuations, with opportunities on both the long and short sides.
Technically, on the monthly chart level, gold prices have currently pulled back to a new low, breaking below the middle band support, with the attached indicators maintaining bearish signals without signs of weakening, suggesting there is still momentum and room for further declines ahead.
However, the main chart ZZ indicator has already shown a bottoming-out on the pullback, also suggesting the corrective decline is approaching its bottom.
Downside attention can be given to the 30-month moving average support or the 60-month moving average support for long-term entry positions anticipating new highs.
On the weekly chart level, gold prices have currently fallen into the rising trend channel that began in 2024, and have also touched the 100-week moving average support as expected.
Although the attached indicators maintain bearish signals, the main chart ZZ indicator shows a bottoming-out on the pullback, and it has also touched moving average support while approaching the bottom support of the rising trend channel.
Therefore, a short-term rebound demand will also emerge, with upside attention on the 5-week moving average resistance at $4,030 and the rising trendline pressure at $4,120.
Downside attention on support near the $3,880 and $3,800 levels.
On the daily chart level, gold prices are currently rebounding outside the Bollinger Bands but remain under pressure.
If they cannot return above the rising trendline that began in 2024, the weak adjustment outlook will persist.
Short-term upside attention on short-term moving average resistance and Bollinger Band middle band resistance for short positions, and downside attention on Bollinger Band lower band support and rising trend channel bottom support for bullish rebounds.
Below are preliminary long and short entry level references for intraday operations, with specific entry and exit points subject to real-time account notifications:
Gold: Downside attention on support near $3,930 or $3,900; upside attention on resistance near $3,975 or $4,010.
Silver: Downside attention on support at $50.40 or $50.00; upside attention on resistance at $51.30 or $52.50.
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