It is learned that, with support from projects like the National Natural Science Foundation of China, a research team led by Professor Mai Yaohua from Jinan University, in collaboration with a team led by Professor Han Liyuan from Shanghai Jiao Tong University, has adopted an amorphous passivation strategy to enhance the efficiency and stability of large-area flexible perovskite modules. The team achieved a conversion efficiency of 24.52% for the flexible cells, which retained 92.5% of their initial efficiency even after 10,000 bending cycles.
The technological pathways for solar arrays include gallium arsenide (GaAs), P-type HJT, and P-type HJT/perovskite tandem cells, with the current mainstream solution being gallium arsenide solar cells. GaAs solar cells offer advantages such as high-temperature resistance, radiation tolerance, high conversion efficiency, and a thin, lightweight profile; however, their high cost (accounting for 15-20% of satellite manufacturing costs) and rigid substrates limit their large-scale application.
Perovskite cells can achieve a specific power of up to 23W/s, approximately 6 to 57 times that of GaAs cells, and eliminate the need for high-value TCO glass. The small-area assembly route can reduce equipment depreciation costs and aligns well with the lightweight requirements for space applications.
In the medium to long term, P-type HJT cells are expected to gradually penetrate the low-Earth orbit short-term mission market, leveraging their advantages of ultra-thinness, high specific power, and radiation resistance. Simultaneously, perovskite cells, with their inherent benefits of high theoretical conversion efficiency, low cost, and high flexibility, hold long-term potential to become the "ultimate solution" for space-based solar power.
Jiang Chenyi, a photovoltaic cell analyst at Shanghai Metals Market, stated that the application of perovskite-crystalline silicon tandem cells in space represents a highly promising high-end niche market. Its development is being propelled by clear national policies, capital focused on industrialization, and a diverse range of companies, with the industry anticipating large-scale commercial breakthroughs between 2028 and 2030.
Furthermore, SpaceX recently submitted an application to the U.S. Federal Communications Commission, planning to launch up to 1 million satellites to build an "orbital data center." Compared to building traditional AI computing data centers on Earth, utilizing solar energy in space offers extremely low operational or maintenance costs, potentially enabling a revolutionary improvement in energy efficiency.
In a statement published on the SpaceX website, Elon Musk detailed a technical roadmap for relocating AI computing power to space. He predicts that within 2 to 3 years, space will become the lowest-cost method for generative AI computing. This cost efficiency would allow companies to train AI models and process data at unprecedented speeds and scales.
Data from the International Telecommunication Union shows that by the end of 2025, the number of registered low-Earth orbit satellites globally will exceed 100,000, while the current number actually in orbit is less than 15,000. Over the next five years, more than 70,000 satellites are awaiting launch, indicating an extremely urgent demand for launch services.
Against the backdrop of the booming commercial space industry, space-based photovoltaics, as a core direction for upgrading power systems, is entering a new phase of technological route advancement and industrial-scale delivery, driven by the deployment of large satellite constellations.
UBS Group recently forecasted that global demand for space-based solar power will be 0.3 gigawatts in 2026, and is expected to surge to 115 gigawatts by 2035, representing a projected increase of over 300 times in a decade.
It is worth noting that several listed companies have already made strategic moves in the perovskite sector. Trina Solar recently revealed on an interactive platform that it has conducted long-term and comprehensive R&D布局 across three key directions related to space photovoltaics: crystalline silicon cells (such as HJT), perovskite tandem cells, and III-V族 gallium arsenide multi-junction cells, achieving leading R&D results.
In terms of promoting commercial applications, the company, based on its leading achievements, is closely collaborating with domestic aerospace research institutes and enterprises, as well as leading overseas aerospace organizations, accumulating substantial practical experience in space-based solar power.
Deke Corporation also recently stated during institutional research that the company will continue to focus on its core business of electronic pastes, expanding from traditional photovoltaic conductive pastes and semiconductor packaging materials to applications in space photovoltaics and commercial aerospace, aiming to grow in domestic and international markets and solidify its leading market position.
Additionally, through its controlling subsidiary Shanghai Fuxi Xinkong Technology, Shanghai Gangwan is involved in satellite energy systems. Its Jiangyin Jinghao project focuses on perovskite cells for space photovoltaics. By the end of 2024, the company's energy system products had contributed to the successful launch of 15 satellites.
Guosheng Securities believes that, driven by the global explosion in space energy demand and the accelerated restructuring of Sino-US supply chains, Chinese photovoltaic companies possessing aerospace certifications, technical validation credentials, and mass production capabilities are transitioning from being "ground-based supporters" to becoming "space-based core components," suggesting that demand for space photovoltaics could become the next vast growth frontier.
Looking ahead, Guohai Securities pointed out that expectations for space photovoltaic demand are continuously strengthening, and large-scale orders for related equipment are expected to materialize. As the number of satellite launches increases and satellites evolve from communication-focused to more power-intensive computing satellites, demand for space-based energy is expected to maintain high growth. As photovoltaics currently represent the only reliable form of energy in space, the sector is likely to witness a new wave of capacity construction.
Related concept stocks: DRINDA (02865): The company is a pioneer in low-Earth orbit and space photovoltaics. It recently disclosed plans to invest 30 million yuan in cash to acquire a 16.67% stake in Shanghai Xingyi Xineng, becoming its second-largest shareholder. The two parties will establish a joint venture focusing on CPI films and products combining CPI films with crystalline silicon cells, aiming to enter the low-orbit and space photovoltaic market. GCL TECH (03800): The company previously achieved a technological breakthrough with its GTC perovskite tandem cell, reaching a photoelectric conversion efficiency of 33.31%. It has also recently applied for related patents to enhance battery performance, aligning with the development direction of space photovoltaic technology. CHINA AEROSPACE (00031): As a subsidiary of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, the company is involved in satellite manufacturing and aerospace energy, possessing relevant technical reserves for satellite energy systems. FLAT GLASS (06865): A leading manufacturer of photovoltaic glass, it is a potential supplier of encapsulation materials for space photovoltaic modules and is well-positioned to benefit from the growth in demand for such components.
Comments