Key market data and spot prices for aluminum and alumina.
On the aluminum spot side, SMM data showed the East China A00 aluminum price at 23,890 yuan per ton, down 80 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with the East China spot premium/discount at 190 yuan per ton, a change of minus 40 yuan per ton from the prior session. The Central China A00 aluminum price stood at 23,710 yuan per ton, with the spot premium/discount changing by minus 40 yuan per ton to 10 yuan per ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was recorded at 23,880 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, while the spot premium/discount was unchanged at 180 yuan per ton.
On the aluminum futures side, on October 27, 2026, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened at 23,440 yuan per ton and closed at 23,405 yuan per ton, down 70 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 23,590 yuan per ton and a low of 23,370 yuan per ton. Full-day trading volume reached 184,220 lots, with open interest at 250,746 lots.
On the inventory side, as of October 27, 2026, SMM statistics showed domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory at 553,000 tons, down 30,000 tons from the prior period, while warehouse receipt inventory was 63,431 tons, down 1,528 tons from the previous trading day. LME aluminum inventory stood at 232,100 tons, down 1,950 tons from the previous trading day.
For alumina spot prices on October 27, 2026, SMM recorded Shanxi at 2,675 yuan per ton, Shandong at 2,650 yuan per ton, Henan at 2,685 yuan per ton, Guangxi at 2,590 yuan per ton, and Guizhou at 2,690 yuan per ton, while Australian alumina FOB was at 391 US dollars per ton.
On the alumina futures side, on October 27, 2026, the most-traded alumina contract opened at 2,563 yuan per ton and closed at 2,560 yuan per ton, up 4 yuan per ton or 0.16% from the previous settlement, with a high of 2,575 yuan per ton and a low of 2,528 yuan per ton. Full-day trading volume reached 170,010 lots, with open interest at 316,290 lots.
For aluminum alloy prices on October 27, 2026, Baotai's civil-grade recycled aluminum purchase price was 17,900 yuan per ton and mechanical-grade recycled aluminum was 18,100 yuan per ton, both unchanged from the previous day. Baotai's ADC12 quotation was 23,900 yuan per ton, also flat day-on-day.
On aluminum alloy inventories, social inventory stood at 12,100 tons while in-plant inventory was 71,600 tons. On cost and profit, the theoretical total cost was 23,826 yuan per ton, with a theoretical profit of 74 yuan per ton.
Strategy analysis
Electrolytic aluminum: With the Federal Reserve meeting imminent, macro pressure remains a cap on non-ferrous metals, but actual consumption strength is being confirmed by micro-level data, suggesting earlier market judgments on domestic demand were overly pessimistic. Social inventory destocking continues at a steady pace, the proportion of molten aluminum is rising again, and social inventory has fallen to the lowest level for the same period in history, making the risk of a later squeeze difficult to dismiss. Aluminum production in the UAE has resumed to 50% of capacity, and overseas supply is slowly climbing, yet this does not change the tight overall picture. LME inventories continue to see long-term, modest drawdowns, indicating overseas supply remains relatively tight, while domestic consumption during the traditional peak season is recovering month on month. Longer term, expectations of oversupply from Middle East restarts and new capacity in Southeast Asia will also cap upside, so chasing further gains after aluminum prices have risen offers a relatively poor risk-reward.
Alumina: Alumina bounced after an oversold correction and basis repair, but it remains at a discount to spot, and the rebound is relatively weak. No large-scale production cuts have appeared on the supply side, and the oversupply imbalance remains unchanged. Northwest electrolytic aluminum plants have winter stocking demand, overseas spot prices continue to strengthen, and export windows have opened in some regions, but none of this can reverse the fact of spot oversupply, with social inventory still rising. Support from the ore side is weakening, and alumina plants want to push bauxite prices lower as a result, while mines remain firm in their quotes because of high mining costs and lingering uncertainty over sea freight. As mines lock in shipping at low prices, China's bauxite arrivals are expected to increase later, and combined with more dry bulk vessel capacity, the market will face long-term sea freight pressure. Alumina is still expected to remain in a range-bound, weak oscillation, but after the oversold move, attention should be paid to the risk of an upward basis repair.
Risks
1. Unexpected overseas policy disruptions. 2. Liquidity changes exceeding expectations. 3. New disruptions in overseas ore supply.
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