On May 8, the cryptocurrency market continued its upward trend, with Bitcoin's price rising to around $81,600 per coin. Statements from US Secretary of State Rubio alleviated concerns about further military escalation, putting downward pressure on both the US dollar and oil prices, thereby creating new room for the revaluation of risk assets. RadexMarkets stated that BTC has climbed from approximately $63,000 to above $80,000 over the past three months, driven by sustained institutional inflows and reasonable leverage levels, which together support the continuation of the bullish pattern. The institution's analysis indicates that key signals monitored by professional investors consistently point to the next target level near $85,000 per coin.
From a market structure perspective, BTC has moved above a critical cost baseline, with perpetual contract funding rates turning from negative to neutral, indicating a clear release of previous short-selling pressure. RadexMarkets believes that market makers hold short gamma exposure near $82,000 per coin, and further price increases could trigger hedging buy orders, providing additional upward momentum. The institution assesses that while Bitcoin futures open interest is approaching a historical high of 800,000 coins, the perpetual funding rate remains in a slightly positive range, suggesting that the market has not yet shown signs of overheating or excessive crowding, and the capital structure remains healthy.
On the macroeconomic front, a marginal easing of geopolitical tensions and a decline in oil prices have collectively alleviated market concerns about the inflation trajectory. A marginal drop in US Treasury yields has reduced downward pressure on the valuation anchor for risk assets. Institutions have observed that long-term holders' positions remain relatively stable, miner selling pressure is moderate, and there are no significant signs of deterioration in market structure. Marginal changes in stablecoin market capitalization, trends in perpetual contract funding rates, on-chain active address data, and shifts in miner holdings are also important indicators for gauging institutional sentiment and leverage levels in the crypto market, and should be analyzed comprehensively alongside multidimensional data.
RadexMarkets anticipates that Bitcoin may continue its upward movement in the short term, testing the $85,000 per coin target, with directional decisions more likely driven by macroeconomic data and institutional capital behavior. The institution emphasizes that the high volatility and leverage sensitivity of crypto assets require investors to prioritize risk budgeting and position control, paying close attention to the Federal Reserve's policy path, Treasury yield trends, regulatory developments, and spot ETF fund flows. Investors should avoid excessive trading driven by one-sided sentiment and adapt to market transition phases with a rational approach.
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