T. Rowe Price asserts that the Federal Reserve must adopt a more reactive policy stance as real economic growth and inflation continue to accelerate year over year.
In a report, Adam Marden, co-portfolio manager for the firm's Dynamic Global Bond Strategy, wrote that the current operational environment for the Fed more closely resembles the 1990s and early 2000s, rather than the period following the global financial crisis.
The Fed's reduction in forward guidance and increased reliance on data is expected to lead to heightened interest rate volatility.
Fundamentally, volatility is likely to increase because nominal growth rates are on the rise.
Recent movements in interest rates appear largely driven by market positioning adjustments; for the bond market, the more significant issue may not be the next CPI data point but rather the manufacturing cycle and its impact on nominal growth.
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