Washington is using economic incentives as leverage in an effort to bring Russia to the negotiating table.
On Wednesday, sources familiar with the matter said the White House and the Kremlin are discussing the return of American oil majors to the Russian market in a post-war scenario. The proposals cover a range of arrangements including joint offshore projects on Sakhalin Island and the return of Russian oil to European markets via the Druzhba pipeline. Trump envoy Steve Witkoff specifically discussed these potential commercial deals during a meeting with Putin in St. Petersburg in early September. Photographs subsequently released by the Kremlin showed Witkoff writing the words "business deals" in a notebook during his trip to Moscow last week.
US officials said the economic proposals are intended to provide a framework for post-war reconstruction, that "any economic agreement will be incorporated into and subject to a comprehensive peace framework," and that "nothing has been finalized." At the same time, Washington hopes to make progress at trilateral talks involving the US, Russia and Ukraine scheduled for next month in Abu Dhabi 鈥?the first such trilateral meeting since February, with post-war security guarantees as the key agenda item.
Commercial proposals span energy, aviation and nuclear power
The potential deals under discussion between Washington and Moscow extend well beyond oil.
On the energy front, the proposals include: participation by US companies in joint offshore oil and gas projects on Sakhalin Island; the resumption of Russian oil supplies to Europe via the Druzhba pipeline; the sale of Lukoil's international assets to investors linked to the White House; participation by Russian gas company Novatek in an Alaska LNG project; and the resumption of gas supplies to Europe through the surviving Nord Stream pipeline, most of which was destroyed in explosions in 2022.
In other areas, the proposals also cover: restoring the right of US airlines to transit Russian airspace, which would significantly reduce fuel costs; restarting US-Russia cooperation on titanium production and supply 鈥?titanium is a critical raw material for civilian aircraft, and Boeing previously operated a titanium joint venture with Russia before suspending cooperation and diversifying its supply chain after the war broke out; in addition, there are ideas for transferring management of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to a US entity with electricity shared between the US and Ukraine, as well as easing potash sanctions and exporting through Baltic Sea ports.
ExxonMobil is the only US company involved in the Sakhalin-1 project, holding a 30% stake that was previously confiscated by Russia.
Moscow sees commercial deals as leverage, talks face uncertain prospects
Moscow views these commercial deals as incentives to push Trump toward normalizing relations with Russia before the war ends, and the Kremlin has never hidden its desire to restore economic cooperation with the United States.
The current negotiations build on earlier efforts. Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner held discussions with Putin's economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev late last year on a Ukraine peace plan, and Dmitriev estimated in February that the total value of related projects could reach $14 trillion. However, progress subsequently stalled as Ukraine resisted Russia's demand for territorial concessions as a precondition for talks.
A person familiar with the commercial negotiations said, "Dmitriev's plan was to wait for the war to freeze, but the clock is ticking and the war hasn't stopped, so they decided to move now."
However, many people are skeptical about the feasibility of these proposals. Geoffrey Pyatt, a former assistant secretary of state for energy resources in the Biden administration, said, "I don't see any of these proposals passing the reality test," and expressed doubt that any major publicly listed company would rush to return to the Russian market in the current environment.
Europe strongly opposed, security guarantee talks remain central
European allies have clearly expressed their displeasure with the process. European diplomats have repeatedly told Washington that they oppose easing any sanctions or reaching commercial agreements with Russia before the war ends, and stressed that any decision affecting EU interests cannot be made without European participation.
It is worth noting that these US-Russia discussions have all taken place without direct involvement from Ukraine or Europe. The EU has agreed to phase out imports of Russian gas, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has explicitly ruled out the possibility of restarting the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Comments