The National Day holiday is approaching, and A-share market investors are facing asset allocation decisions ahead of the long break. Historical data shows that around long holidays, market capital and price movements often display a certain "calendar effect" (that is, financial assets exhibiting observable statistical patterns at specific dates), which provides a reference for investors to understand the evolution of market sentiment.
Based on Wind data, a Securities Daily reporter found that during the 10 years from 2016 to 2025, the A-share market's characteristic of "cautious volume contraction before the holiday and restorative warming after the holiday" was relatively prominent. The Shanghai Composite Index rose in the 5 trading days before the National Day holiday in 4 years, namely 2018, 2023, 2024 and 2025; after external risks were released during the long holiday, market sentiment after the holiday usually recovered to some extent, with gains on the first trading day after the holiday in 7 years.
Setting aside the index surface, the movements of leveraged funds and main funds are important windows for observing changes in market sentiment around long holidays. Reviewing the data for the above 10 years, margin traders tended to reduce positions before the National Day holiday, possibly out of consideration for avoiding holiday interest costs and risks from external fluctuations. For example, in 2016, the margin financing and securities lending balance fell by 19.96 billion yuan before the holiday; in 2021, it fell by 64.06 billion yuan; in 2023, it fell by 17.07 billion yuan; and in 2025, it also fell by 22.63 billion yuan before the holiday. On the first day after the holiday, funds often returned, with only 2022 seeing a decline in the margin financing and securities lending balance after the holiday, while all other years achieved growth. In particular, in 2024, affected by the sharp market rise in late September that year, the margin financing and securities lending balance did not fall but increased by 69.42 billion yuan before the holiday, and then increased by another 107.7 billion yuan on the first day after the holiday.
From the perspective of industry distribution, net inflows from main funds before the holiday were relatively concentrated. Wind data shows that in the 5 trading days before the National Day holiday in the above 10 years, among the 31 Shenwan Level 1 industries, 15 industries received net inflows from main funds (statistically measured by large-order transactions) 3 times or more. Among them, the food and beverage industry ranked first with 5 net inflows; the banking, pharmaceutical and biological, beauty care, and power equipment industries each reached 4 times. Judging by the number of net inflows, major consumer sectors and some defensive sectors were relatively more favored by main funds before the holiday, which may be related to funds' optimistic expectations for holiday consumption.
Overall, the so-called long-holiday "calendar effect" may be understood as funds' phased response to short-term uncertainty, namely reducing positions before the holiday to avoid risk and repricing after risk is released following the holiday. For investors, historical data cannot serve as a basis for predicting future market conditions. In actual operations, facing the upcoming long holiday, investors should base decisions on current macroeconomic policies and corporate fundamentals, remain rational, and avoid blindly chasing rises or dumping declines.
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