On the previous trading day (October 20), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.12% to 3,735.37 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.14% to 11,801.29 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.26% to 2,739.20 points; combined turnover across the two markets reached 1.456112 trillion yuan; 3,778 stocks advanced, 1,667 declined, and 130 were flat, with 50 hitting the daily limit up and none hitting the limit down.
Guotai Haitong believes the policy mainline centers on interest rate marketization, capital market inclusiveness, risk convergence, and institutional opening-up; Guojin Securities believes stock ETFs remain the primary buying force, while margin financing and northbound flows saw notable net outflows; CITIC Securities believes the most pessimistic phase for Chinese and U.S. large models has passed, and domestic models are poised for systematic revaluation; Huafu Securities believes resuming production will not resolve the current shortage, with thermal coal breaking above 1,000 yuan; Guotou Securities believes property investment and sales remain at the bottom, though prices have shown marginal improvement.
Guotai Haitong: Macro | Anchoring a Financial Powerhouse and Building a New Financial Ecosystem
The 2026 Financial Street Forum released reform signals: the central bank will push the overnight repurchase rate to become the main policy rate at an appropriate time, establish a liquidity tool for large non-bank redemptions, and expand the scope of the SLF; the securities regulator introduced the first batch of active ETFs and will deepen New Third Board reform; the financial regulatory administration will prudently dispose of high-risk institutions and push small and medium-sized institutions to reduce quantity and improve quality; financial opening-up places greater emphasis on energizing entities and optimizing the ecosystem. We believe the policy mainline is interest rate marketization, capital market inclusiveness, risk convergence, and institutional opening-up.
Monetary policy: the policy rate anchor will shift at an appropriate time, strengthening non-bank liquidity support. The central bank stated it will set up a liquidity support tool to address large redemptions by non-bank institutions and expand the SLF's applicable institutions to include domestic foreign-funded legal-person banks, achieving full coverage of deposit-taking institutions. Framework transformation focuses on shifting the policy rate anchor, with the open market overnight repo rate to become the main policy rate; the loan pricing benchmark will transition from LPR toward a diversified, tiered system, and the deposit and lending benchmark rates will be retired. At the same time, it will advance bond market interconnection and clearing bank foreign exchange proprietary trading pilots, emphasizing two-way浮动 and enhanced flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, with RMB internationalization focused on asset supply, and proactively addressing AI's impact on finance.
Capital market: launching active ETFs and deepening New Third Board reform. The securities regulator proposed four mainlines: stabilizing the market, promoting reform, optimizing the ecosystem, and expanding opening-up. On the market side, it will improve long-term assessment, expand the entry of medium- and long-term funds, approve the registration of the first batch of 18 active ETFs, and encourage buybacks and increased holdings; on the reform side, it will accelerate the introduction of regulations on listed company supervision; on the ecosystem side, it will roll out four measures including fund monitoring, AI securities compliance, penalties for reductions, and advance compensation; on the opening-up side, it will enhance QFII facilitation, enrich China asset products, and implement the "five synergies" between the mainland and Hong Kong. In addition, the Beijing Stock Exchange will launch the BSE 50 ETF, new share market value allocation, and innovative evaluation standards, deepening the integration of the New Third Board.
Financial regulation: prudently disposing of high-risk institutions and promoting risk convergence. The financial regulatory administration proposed three directions for the "transformation and upgrading" of the banking and insurance industry: improving differentiated assessment and pushing small and medium-sized institutions to reduce quantity and improve quality; urging the abandonment of scale obsession and punishing financial "black and gray" activities; enhancing service adaptability and supporting new quality productive forces, advanced manufacturing, and the construction of the "six networks." Risk prevention and control emphasizes the comprehensive use of mergers and acquisitions, market exit, and other methods to prudently dispose of high-risk institutions, fill institutional shortcomings, and investigate key persons and key matters; on opening-up, it supports foreign institutions and long-term capital to conduct business in China.
Financial opening-up: facilitating corporate foreign exchange use and safeguarding cross-border operations. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange emphasized incorporating "corporate autonomy in cross-border operations" and "open ecosystem building" into the same governance framework. On one hand, it will strengthen the alignment of foreign exchange policies for trade, investment, and financing to facilitate corporate allocation of domestic and overseas funds; on the other hand, it will create a "policy-ecosystem" dual assessment mechanism. At the same time, it plans to introduce incremental measures including current account facilitation, capital account optimization, and foreign exchange market opening, expand securities company settlement and sales pilots, and strengthen exchange rate hedging for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Guojin Securities: Strategy | Stock ETFs Remain the Primary Buying Force, Margin Financing and Northbound Flows See Net Outflows
Market trading热度 has somewhat retreated, and volatility across major indices continues to pick up. Stock ETFs remain the main buying force in the current market, while leveraged funds represented by margin financing continue to see large net outflows and the maintenance guarantee ratio keeps falling; northbound flows and actively managed equity funds have again turned to net outflows. The market still faces明显的 trading disturbances at this stage, and subsequent attention is needed on whether the net outflow magnitude of margin funds can gradually slow and whether the maintenance guarantee ratio can gradually stabilize and rebound.
CITIC Securities: Technology | China-U.S. Large Model 26Q4 Outlook: The Most Pessimistic Phase Has Passed
Although the market's attitude toward large models has become more cautious, we remain firmly optimistic about the long-term commercial value and valuation growth space of Chinese and U.S. models. Currently, the RSI closed loop and model iteration are accelerating, and the combined ARR growth of OpenAI and Anthropic remains steady. Model payment and usage are highly uneven, showing early commercialization characteristics similar to the mobile internet era. Even considering only the diffusion of demand to more enterprises, scenarios, and regions, the commercialization space remains broad. Domestically, demand for data annotation is exploding, the post-training data bottleneck is easing, and domestic model post-training will ultimately break through in the crevices. Looking ahead, 26Q4 is expected to be a key point for confirming large-scale enterprise-level deployment of overseas models. In August-September, due to competition and anti-distillation factors brought by the release of GPT-6-Astra, Anthropic's ARR month-on-month growth rate somewhat declined, but with the release of Opus5.5 at the end of September and expectations for the release of next-generation models such as Fable 5.5 before its IPO, we believe Anthropic's ARR is expected to regain momentum after October, thereby repairing the market's currently overly pessimistic expectations for the AI sector. At present, domestic model ARR is only equivalent to the level of overseas models 18 months ago, while valuations are only one-tenth of overseas models. Once domestic model capabilities break through, a lower revenue base, faster growth speed, and more attractive valuation are expected to drive a systematic revaluation of domestic models.
Huafu Securities: Energy Extraction | Resuming Production Will Not Resolve the Current Shortage, Thermal Coal Breaks Above 1,000 Yuan
Power plant restocking combined with high methanol operating rates has driven coal prices higher, and the expected intensity of production resumption for supply guarantee under a strict safety supervision environment is generally moderate. At the macro level, geopolitical conflicts strengthen energy attention among countries, and high inventories may be a response measure. At the same time, with policies such as rectifying involutionary competition and expanding domestic demand taking effect, the policy bottom for coal prices has been proven in 2025. On the demand side, AI development is an incremental driver for energy demand, while China's supply chain and energy depression advantages firmly guarantee electricity consumption, and coal prices are in a new upward cycle. We are in an era of great energy transformation. Under the policy orientation of establishing the new before abolishing the old and the demand for energy security, coal may still be in a golden age. Coal supply elasticity is limited: first, capacity control is strict under the dual carbon background, while stricter safety and environmental policies squeeze out overproduction; second, supply shows regional differentiation, and as resources in the eastern region decrease and Shanxi enters a "stable production" era, mining difficulty may gradually increase, with domestic capacity further concentrating in the west and raising supply costs; third, after deeper mining and higher safety standards, coking coal mining difficulty increases, and underproduction may become the new normal, with resource scarcity becoming more apparent. Coal's position as a primary energy source is difficult to change in the short term. Although a weak macroeconomy has temporarily affected coal demand, relatively rigid supply and rising costs effectively support the bottom of coal prices, and coal prices are still expected to maintain a volatile pattern. Coal companies' balance sheets are generally healthy, and with overall improved dividend ratios, coal stocks still have comparative advantages.
Guotou Securities: Real Estate | The Housing Market Is Bottoming, with Signs of Price Warmth Gradually Emerging
Sales are bottoming and stabilizing, and inventory destocking is showing results. From January to September 2026, nationwide commercial housing sales continued to bottom out, with positive inventory destocking signals. From January to September, new commercial housing sales area was 560 million square meters and sales value was 5.4 trillion yuan, down 13.2% and 13.9% year-on-year respectively, with the declines widening by 1.1 and 0.9 percentage points compared with January-August, but the sales value decline has significantly narrowed from the low of 20.2% at the beginning of the year, and sales momentum has marginally stabilized. According to Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development data, from January to September, second-hand housing online signing area was 620 million square meters, up 10.7% year-on-year, with market activity continuing to improve and becoming an important support for stabilizing demand. At the end of September, the area of new commercial housing for sale was 750 million square meters, down 1.5% year-on-year, of which the area for sale for less than 3 years fell 5.0%, and inventory destocking results are gradually emerging.
Development investment is bottoming, and supply is actively contracting. Real estate development investment remains in the bottoming stage, with active supply contraction and structural optimization. From January to September, nationwide real estate development investment was 5.3 trillion yuan, down 20.6% year-on-year, of which residential investment was 4.1 trillion yuan, down 20.5%, with the decline widening by 0.7 percentage points from January-August. On the supply side, from January to September, housing construction area was 5.65 billion square meters, down 12.8% year-on-year; new housing starts were 340 million square meters, down 24.9% year-on-year; completed housing area was 230 million square meters, down 25.1% year-on-year. New starts have continued to operate at low levels, and the industry is accelerating destocking of existing inventory and controlling increments. With sustained efforts of policies to stabilize the housing market, development investment is expected to stabilize at a low level.
Housing prices are marginally stabilizing, with core cities leading the rise. Prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities have shown持续 marginal improvement signs, with more cities rising month-on-month and year-on-year declines generally narrowing. In September, new commercial residential prices in first-tier cities rose 0.1% month-on-month, with Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rising 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.3% respectively; second-tier cities turned flat from a decline, while third-tier cities saw declines unchanged from the previous month; among the 70 cities, 17 saw month-on-month increases in new commercial residential prices, 2 more than the previous month. In the second-hand housing market, first-tier cities saw second-hand residential prices rise 0.2% month-on-month, with the gain expanding by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen all rose month-on-month; among the 70 cities, 9 saw month-on-month increases in second-hand residential prices, 6 more than the previous month. Year-on-year, the declines in new commercial residential prices in first-, second-, and third-tier cities narrowed by 0.4, 0.3, and 0.2 percentage points respectively, and the year-on-year decline in second-hand residential prices in first-tier cities narrowed by 1.2 percentage points, with recovery signals spreading from core cities outward. Overall, industry investment and sales are still bottoming, but housing prices have continued to improve marginally, and the market is accumulating momentum for stabilization.
Comments