There are initial signs of a modest recovery in the number of supertankers transporting non-sanctioned crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, providing limited relief to an oil market grappling with its largest supply disruption on record.
Data compiled from vessel tracking shows that since May 10th, four tankers, each carrying approximately 2 million barrels of crude oil, have departed the region, with the majority of the cargo being Iraqi crude. Prior to the outbreak of conflict in Iran, this critical waterway saw an average daily transit of about 20 tankers of various sizes.
Market participants are closely monitoring shipping activity through the Strait, as the blockage of this chokepoint has resulted in a global supply reduction estimated at around 1 billion barrels. While traffic from countries other than Iran has shown some recovery, Iranian crude exports have significantly declined since the imposition of a U.S. blockade.
In recent weeks, some tankers have transited the strait with their satellite tracking signals turned off. This suggests that shipping volumes could potentially increase further in the future as these vessels reappear after leaving the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz has remained largely blocked since the war began in late February and continues to be a focal point of international diplomatic maneuvering.
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