Abstract
Monolithic Power Systems will report its first-quarter 2026 results on April 30, 2026 Post Market, with consensus pointing to revenue of about 781.33 million US dollars and adjusted EPS near 4.90, and investor attention centered on the pace of AI data-center demand, the trajectory of gross margins, and the quality of operating leverage.
Market Forecast
Consensus for the current quarter anticipates revenue of 781.33 million US dollars, up 23.18% year over year, adjusted EPS of 4.90, up 21.94% year over year, and EBIT of 272.52 million US dollars, up 26.24% year over year; following its last report, the company guided first-quarter revenue to 770.00–790.00 million US dollars, anchoring the range around current expectations. Forecasts do not include an explicit gross margin or net margin target, so investor focus will likely turn to whether mix and pricing sustain margins in the mid-50% area while EPS grows faster than revenue through disciplined expenses.
The main business mix remains diversified, and management’s outlook implies ongoing strength where high-value power solutions address rapid compute and storage needs. The most promising segment is Enterprise Data, which contributed 233.48 million US dollars last quarter; this line is expected to benefit from continued deployments tied to advanced compute platforms, though a formal year-over-year figure for the segment was not disclosed in the latest breakdown.
Last Quarter Review
Monolithic Power Systems delivered revenue of 751.16 million US dollars (up 20.83% year over year), a gross profit margin of 55.15%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of 176.00 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 23.39%, and adjusted EPS of 4.79 (up 17.12% year over year).
A notable financial highlight was that GAAP net income contracted modestly by 1.45% quarter over quarter even as year-over-year growth remained solid, underscoring management’s discipline while navigating product-cycle transitions and the timing of new ramps. Within the revenue mix, Enterprise Data led with 233.48 million US dollars, followed by Storage and Computing at 162.12 million US dollars and Automotive at 150.94 million US dollars; while segment-level year-over-year changes were not broken out, the company’s overall revenue rose 20.83% year over year.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main business: Core power solutions across compute and storage
The primary revenue engine entering the first quarter is the company’s portfolio of power solutions serving compute and storage applications, which collectively represented a material share of last quarter’s sales through the Enterprise Data and Storage and Computing lines. The guidance of 770.00–790.00 million US dollars suggests confidence in sustained order flow from large programs that continued into the new calendar year. With consensus at 781.33 million US dollars and EBIT expansion expected at 26.24% year over year, operational leverage should continue as opex remains controlled after a December-quarter ramp in tape-outs and program support.
Margin dynamics will be central. The December quarter printed a 55.15% gross margin, and external tallies referenced an adjusted gross margin in the mid-55% range. If the first quarter sees healthy mix from higher-value controllers and modules, gross margin can remain resilient despite incremental costs from new product introductions. Conversely, any less favorable mix or pricing normalization in legacy parts could trim gross margin slightly, but EBIT growth outpacing revenue suggests that expense discipline and a richer product set can offset that risk in the quarter under review.
Another lens is the relationship between ASP uplift and content gains versus volume. Where device shipments tie to next-gen compute platforms, the company captures more content per board alongside greater attach rates, enhancing dollar revenue even if unit growth is uneven. This content-led growth, evident in recent trends, is consistent with the projected spread between revenue growth (23.18% year over year) and EBIT growth (26.24% year over year), implying incremental profitability on higher-value shipments. Execution on program ramps, supply continuity for critical SKUs, and timely qualification at key customers remain the day-to-day drivers of performance.
Most promising business: Enterprise Data momentum and AI-related deployments
Enterprise Data contributed 233.48 million US dollars in the December quarter, placing it as the largest single revenue line. Coming into the March quarter, this segment is positioned to capitalize on high-performance compute programs that require precise power delivery, tighter power density, and improved efficiency. The existing revenue base provides a platform where incremental wins and design-ins can convert to near-term revenue as backlogs ship and new nodes scale.
The growth case for the first quarter is anchored in several operational elements. First, the company’s rapid cadence of new controller introductions has opened content opportunities on complex boards, where every incremental function can add dollars per board and support blended ASPs. Second, the pace of deployment among large compute customers continues to favor solutions that shorten design cycles and improve reliability, which supports both volume and premium pricing. Third, the guidance framework suggests management is seeing stable visibility for near-term demand, with the midpoint of guidance essentially aligned to consensus, hinting that the March quarter footprint for Enterprise Data will remain robust.
Profitability within this segment can be accretive to the corporate average gross margin, given the premium characteristics of these solutions. Should shipments in Enterprise Data skew to higher-power platforms, both gross margin and operating income could benefit disproportionately. The main operational watchpoints are lead-time management on critical subcomponents and the timing of customer qualifications, but nothing in recent updates indicates disruption. As a result, this segment is the prime candidate to outgrow corporate revenue in the first quarter, supporting the market’s expectation for adjusted EPS to expand at a rate of 21.94% year over year.
Stock-price driver: Gross margin trajectory, EPS leverage, and guidance tone
The most influential near-term stock driver is the interplay between gross margin and adjusted EPS. The December quarter’s 55.15% gross margin provides a high base, and consensus expects EBIT growth (26.24% year over year) to outpace revenue growth (23.18% year over year), implying positive operating leverage into the March quarter. If management delivers a gross margin print consistent with mid-50s alongside healthy opex control, adjusted EPS near 4.90 becomes credible, reinforcing the narrative of profitable growth.
Another key catalyst is the quality of the guidance update. The company previously framed first-quarter revenue between 770.00 and 790.00 million US dollars. If the updated outlook at the April 30, 2026 call reiterates or expands that momentum into the second quarter, investors will likely extrapolate a steadier multi-quarter revenue cadence. Conversely, if commentary flags customer inventory digestion or elongated qualification schedules, the stock could react as estimates recalibrate. The market’s upward revisions to price targets in April also indicate that investors are keyed to management’s tone around booking trends and the conversion of design-ins to revenue.
Finally, the balance of growth between Enterprise Data and other categories will shape valuation discussions. Automotive at 150.94 million US dollars last quarter provides diversification, and incremental progress in platform content can help dampen volatility. However, the magnitude of upside or downside on the day will likely be determined by the degree to which the company sustains premium mix in higher-value compute programs. Evidence that mix remains favorable and that pricing dynamics are stable would align with consensus for adjusted EPS to rise faster than revenue, strengthening the case that profitability can scale with demand.
Analyst Opinions
Bullish views dominate the recent commentary, with a count of bullish to bearish opinions at 6:0 based on published ratings and target changes in the last several months. A series of institutions have reaffirmed positive stances alongside fresh price-target increases ahead of the April 30, 2026 report. Truist Financial’s William Stein maintained a Buy rating with a 1,396.00 US dollars price target, citing continued execution and the potential for operating leverage as revenue scales. Wells Fargo lifted its price target to 1,650.00 US dollars while keeping an Overweight stance, reflecting confidence that revenue growth in data-centric programs can support a premium earnings profile.
TD Cowen reiterated a Buy rating and raised its target to 1,550.00 US dollars, highlighting the company’s path to sustained double-digit top-line growth and the durability of margin performance given the product mix. Stifel Nicolaus reaffirmed a Buy with a 1,250.00 US dollars target, emphasizing the benefit of content gains in complex platforms and the expanding product portfolio. Oppenheimer restated its Buy and a 1,200.00 US dollars target, underscoring steady demand visibility and the potential for upside if March-quarter shipments land toward the upper end of guidance. Wolfe Research maintained an Outperform rating and moved its target to 1,400.00 US dollars, pointing to the consistency of execution and the likelihood of above-average EPS growth.
The common thread across these bullish views is threefold. First, consensus recognizes that the current quarter’s revenue and EPS trajectories—up 23.18% and 21.94% year over year respectively—are supported by momentum in higher-value programs where the company’s product breadth and cadence are translating into content gains. Second, analysts expect mid-50s gross margins to remain defensible near term, given mix, pricing, and ongoing cost control, which together help EBIT growth outpace revenue growth. Third, the guidance framework and recent updates are seen as constructive, with the first-quarter revenue range of 770.00–790.00 million US dollars anchoring expectations, and with several houses implying that visibility into the next quarter is adequate for continued EPS expansion.
In-depth, positive previews emphasize that the March quarter likely reflects a continuation of the December-quarter playbook: robust mix in data-centric applications, tight expense management, and a disciplined roll-out of new platforms. Truist and Wells Fargo both point to the degree of earnings leverage as a central reason to stay constructive, anticipating that even modest upside to revenue could deliver outsized EPS upside if gross margins stay in the mid-50% zone and opex is contained. TD Cowen and Stifel further note that design activity and pipeline commentary have not suggested meaningful delays, which supports the view that the 781.33 million US dollars revenue consensus is appropriately calibrated, with a reasonable chance for an in-line to slightly better print.
On balance, the majority view expects a clean quarter, anchored by the guidance range, and sees valuation support from consistent execution, rising adjusted EPS, and constructive commentary into the June quarter. The previewed setup—revenue growth near the low-20s percent year over year with adjusted EPS growth a bit above that—aligns with the raised targets observed in April. If results confirm these elements and the outlook commentary remains steady, bullish analysts argue that the shares can continue to reflect the company’s earnings power without requiring aggressive multiple expansion in the near term.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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