不讲武德！美元如何收割全球三轮？

华尔街见闻2022-10-10

布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美国直接掀了桌子，一边拿储量极其丰富的石油做基准，一边拿着枪炮让全球去相信美国的信誉。此后，美元霸权收割全球的篇章正式打开。经历过两轮收割后，如今镰刀再起，美元可能又要收割全球第三轮。1、不讲武德！布雷顿森林体系崩溃是美元霸权的起点1944年美国确立了“布雷顿森林体系”，建立了美元的金本位制度，美元也在此后被称为“美金”。但在越战失败后，美国黄金储备量迅速下降，美元难以兑换到...

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Comments

永远不亏损
2022-10-11
永远不亏损
問題是爲什麼人家有本事收割，而我們沒有呢
美港股韭菜
2022-10-11
美港股韭菜
不講武德，A股如何反覆收割股民十年。
JaniceZhu
2022-10-11
JaniceZhu
但佈雷頓森林體系崩潰後，美元選擇與原油掛鉤，由於原油並不具備黃金的稀缺性，所以美國可以依仗其國家信用，近乎無限制的超發貨幣（這也是美國開始耍賴的根基）。所以，佈雷頓森林體系的崩潰是美元霸權的起點，若是佈雷頓森林體系不崩潰，那麼美國只能乖乖的按照其黃金儲備量來發行貨幣。但隨着佈雷頓森林體系崩潰，美元的支撐只有一個儲量極高的原油以及美國的信用（可惜美國沒有）。
- N30:
  [Smile]
- 巴特菲2021:
  呀呀
- haiwei183:
  ok
- CMark:
  [微笑]
- Ricki猫:
  g
Leon8985
2022-10-11
Leon8985
Ok
Leon8985
2022-10-11
Leon8985
Ok
Sinlin
2022-10-10
Sinlin
任何人都可以抄底美股呀，只要你有錢。

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n不讲武德！美元如何收割全球三轮？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-10 18:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xTVot4dfhnhbGofF9DYYJw>华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美国直接掀了桌子，一边拿储量极其丰富的石油做基准，一边拿着枪炮让全球去相信美国的信誉。此后，美元霸权收割全球的篇章正式打开。经历过两轮收割后，如今镰刀再起，美元可能又要收割全球第三轮。1、不讲武德！布雷顿森林体系崩溃是美元霸权的起点1944年美国确立了“布雷顿森林体系”，建立了美元的金本位制度，美元也在此后被称为“美金”。但在越战失败后，美国黄金储备量迅速下降，美元难以兑换到...\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xTVot4dfhnhbGofF9DYYJw\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xTVot4dfhnhbGofF9DYYJw","article_id":"1165840458","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/d21e136ce4e27586f0bca6b38743d02a"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn","url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xTVot4dfhnhbGofF9DYYJw","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165840458","pubTimestamp":1665398618,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美国直接掀了桌子，一边拿储量极其丰富的石油做基准，一边拿着枪炮让全球去相信美国的信誉。此后，美元霸权收割全球的篇章正式打开。经历过两轮收割后，如今镰刀再起，美元可能又要收割全球第","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"Don't talk about martial arts! How does the US dollar reap the global three rounds?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64550e649c8e521ae1d7b8d77c996e56","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美国直接掀了桌子，一边拿储量极其丰富的石油做基准，一边拿着枪炮让全球去相信美国的信誉。此后，美元霸权收割全球的篇章正式打开。经历过两轮收割后，如今镰刀再起，美元可能又要收割全球第三轮。1、不讲武德！布雷顿森林体系崩溃是美元霸权的起点1944年美国确立了“布雷顿森林体系”，建立了美元的金本位制度，美元也在此后被称为“美金”。但在越战失败后，美国黄金储备量迅速下降，美元难以兑换到原本规定的黄金量，导致1971年后，布雷顿森林体系宣布崩溃。那么，为什么说布雷顿森林体系崩溃是美元霸权的起点呢？因为在此之前，黄金储备量是一国央行发行货币基础，纸币并非由国家信用来支撑，而是由黄金来作为基础。也就是说，当时美元只是黄金的“兑换券”。但布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美元选择与原油挂钩，由于原油并不具备黄金的稀缺性，所以美国可以依仗其国家信用，近乎无限制的超发货币（这也是美国开始耍赖的根基）。所以，布雷顿森林体系的崩溃是美元霸权的起点，若是布雷顿森林体系不崩溃，那么美国只能乖乖的按照其黄金储备量来发行货币。但随着布雷顿森林体系崩溃，美元的支撑只有一个储量极高的原油以及美国的信用（可惜美国没有）。对于全球市场来说，由于美元在国际市场上具有超高的流动性（占全球外汇交易的85%左右），所以美国可以通过加息-降息等一系列货币手段来收割全球。2、第一轮收割——超发货币，导致全球资产价格上涨2020年新冠疫情爆发后，美国开启了无限量的量化宽松政策（QE）。截至目前，美国的M2存量较2020年初上升了6.22万亿美元（约44万亿人民币）。“大水漫灌”下，全球资产价格开始大幅上涨——首先，从大宗商品价格来看，2022年5月，CRB商品指数触顶达到644.04点，较低点（2020年4月）上涨了296.52点，涨幅高达85.31%。其次，从房价来看，据OECD统计，疫情期间（9个季度），经合组织成员国实际房价指数共计上涨了18.8个点，季均上涨了2.01个点，而2015-2019年底间（20个季度），房价指数也只上涨了15.6个点，季均仅上涨0.78个点。也就是说，房价的季均增长翻了一倍以上，且近两年多来，房价的涨幅比过去5年还多。最后，从金融市场来看，以标普指数为基准，2021年底，标普触顶达到4796.56点，较低点增长了114.38%。也就是说，去年美国的股市接近翻了一番。那么，为什么说这是美国是去年资产价格大涨的最大受益者呢？在过去几十年的经营下，美国通过威逼（在中东挑起多次战争）利诱（利用马歇尔计划捆绑欧洲等）在全球收割了大量的优质资产。而在资产价格大幅上涨的背景下，美国资本自然得到了极为明显的扩张。以2021年的福布斯排行榜为例，2021年美国顶尖富豪的资产开始大幅的扩张，资产总量大多出现了两位数的增长。这，也是美国对全球优质资产的第一轮收割。3、第二轮收割——收紧货币，加强美元购买力，获得结汇优势2022年3月后，美联储开启“疯狂”的加息进程，截至目前已经累计加息了300BP。在美国疯狂的加息下，美元指数出现大幅的上涨。前不久，美元指数突破114点大关，较其低点上涨了27.67%。为什么说美元指数的大幅走强是美国收割全球的第二轮呢？美元的大幅升值将导致美国出口商品时，其他国家需要用更多的资产（货币）来兑换，且美国可以通过更少的货币去进口海外的优质资源。以2021年为例，美国进出口商品总额高达5.95万亿美元，美元指数的大幅变动将导致美国在结汇上获取大约1.64万亿美元的汇兑收益。4、第三轮收割——周而复始，美国抄底全球的时机逼近众所周知，全球进入加息周期后，资产的泡沫将被戳破，且由于货币政策大多是预后管理，即存在较强的滞后性，所以紧缩的货币政策会导致资产价格超跌，使得其价格表现在一定程度内低于其真实的实际价值。美国，作为全球加息周期的始作俑者，其对于加息周期的经常存在较强的影响力。这也就是说，美国以及美国的投资者能够最便捷的找到抄底全球资产的时机，叠加美元的高流动性下，美国抄底资产的便捷性也明显强于其他国家。在历史上，美国已经通过这样加息-降息的手段，已经在全球“薅”了两次羊毛：拉美失去的十年——1970年，美联储实行低利率政策刺激投资与就业，导致美元贬值，通胀压力高企（大滞胀时期）。部分拉美国家趁机借入大量低利息的美元，投资石油开发，导致其外债规模不断膨胀。1980年美联储突然开启加息周期（沃尔克时代），美元升值，石油价格下跌，拉美国家一下子掉进了美元的陷阱。1982年8月，墨西哥率先爆发债务危机，随后大量拉美国家相继遭遇还债困难，80年代也因此被称作拉美地区“失去的十年”。东南亚金融危机——1990年，东南亚地区经济繁荣发展，在美联储操纵下，大量融资流入东南亚，多国出现经济过热的现象。随后在1994到1995年间，美联储在13个月的时间里接连七次加息。强势美元使大量资本回流美国，成为触发1997到1998年东南亚金融危机的关键因素。1997年7月泰铢大幅贬值，随后冲击波很快蔓延开来，东南亚国家付出了惨痛的代价才从此次动荡中恢复过来。5、美元在国际市场上的影响仍较大从美元自身来看：其各项指标占全全球总量的比重均在40%以上，其中外汇交易以及外汇储备的比重更是高达85%和61%。美元在金融市场上的高占比，是美元霸权的根基。从经济情况来看：美国目前仍是全球第一大经济体，据世界银行数据，2020年美国GDP比重占全球的24.72%（中国为17.37%）。较强的经济实力，是美元霸权的基础。从军事实力来看：美国是全球军费开支最高的国家，2021年军费开支达8000亿美元，明显高于其他国家。此外，据人民网报道，2014年美国在海外军事基地便高达598处，遍及六大洲、四大洋，辐射全球40个国家。强大的军事实力是美元霸权的重要保障。超高的美债将全球主要的经济体捆绑在一起，进一步加强美元的地位。截至目前美债总额已上升至31.15万亿美元，甚至超过了美国的GDP总额。其中，中日欧是美债的重要持有方，截至7月末，合计持有3.55万亿。所以，整体来看，虽然美国利用美元霸权收割全球的行径令人作呕，但仍然不得不承认，目前仍然是全球最主要的结算货币，美元霸权的基础尚没有动摇。6、逆美元化势在必行天下苦美元久矣！逆美元化可能将成为未来国际市场的共识：从历史来看，货币的霸权并非不可颠覆——众所周知，第一次工业革命后，英国成为了全球最强大的国家，号称“日不落帝国”，当时英国对全球经济的掌控较目前的美国有过之而无不及——通过殖民统治控制了全球20%以上的人口以及25%以上的土地，经济体量占全球的70%以上，黄金储备量占全球的80%以上。但在二战后，随着英国国力的衰弱以及美国的崛起，美元才取代英镑成为全球主要的结算货币。从当前情况来看，全球各主要国家均在开始减持美元，据IMF统计，截至2022Q2，全球官方美元储备为66523亿美元，较其高点（2021Q3）下降了4402亿美元。是据统计以来，各国政府减持美元力度最大的一次，反映“去美元化”已经逐步成为国际市场的共识。美国继续收割全球的美梦，或许该醒醒了。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":666106037,"gmtCreate":1665467340330,"gmtModify":1676537611892,"author":{"id":"3567846837699844","authorId":"3567846837699844","name":"永远不亏损","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567846837699844","authorIdStr":"3567846837699844"},"htmlText":"問題是爲什麼人家有本事收割，而我們沒有呢","listText":"問題是爲什麼人家有本事收割，而我們沒有呢","text":"問題是爲什麼人家有本事收割，而我們沒有呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/666106037","repostId":1165840458,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1165840458","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665398618,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165840458?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-10 18:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"No martial ethics! How does the US dollar harvest the world's three rounds?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165840458","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美国直接掀了桌子，一边拿储量极其丰富的石油做基准，一边拿着枪炮让全球去相信美国的信誉。此后，美元霸权收割全球的篇章正式打开。经历过两轮收割后，如今镰刀再起，美元可能又要收割全球第","content":"<html><head></head><body>After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States directly flipped the table, using its extremely rich oil reserves as a benchmark, and at the same time using guns to make the world believe in America's credibility. Since then, the chapter of US dollar hegemony harvesting the world has officially opened.After two rounds of harvesting, now that the sickle is rising again, the US dollar may have to harvest the third round of the world.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2f2e44e9342a02dce61d7a45fd84d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>1、No martial ethics! The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of dollar hegemonyIn 1944, the United States established the \"Bretton Woods System\" and established the gold standard system of the US dollar. The US dollar was also called \"US dollar\" since then.However, after the defeat of the Vietnam War, the US gold reserves declined rapidly, and it was difficult to convert the US dollar to the originally prescribed amount of gold, which led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system after 1971.So,Why is the collapse of the Bretton Woods system the starting point of dollar hegemony?Because before that, the gold reserve was the basis for the issuance of money by a country's central bank, and paper money was not supported by national credit, but by gold. That is to say, at that time, the US dollar was just an \"exchange voucher\" for gold.However, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar chose to be pegged to crude oil. Because crude oil is not as scarce as gold, the United States can rely on its national credit to issue almost unlimited excess currency (this is also the foundation for the United States to cheat).So,The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of the dollar hegemony. If the Bretton Woods system does not collapse, then the United States can only obediently issue currency according to its gold reserves. But with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar was only supported by an extremely high reserve of crude oil and American credit (which the United States unfortunately did not have).For the global market, because the US dollar has ultra-high liquidity in the international market (accounting for about 85% of global foreign exchange transactions), the United States can harvest the world through a series of monetary means such as rate hike-interest rate cut.2、The first round of harvest-excessive currency issuance, causing global asset prices to riseAfter the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the United States opened an unlimited amount of quantitative easing Policy (QE).Up to now, the stock of M2 in the United States has increased by 6.22 trillion USD (about 44 trillion RMB) compared with the beginning of 2020.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdaf7c3b4de3e2f6c957f665b7884491\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Under the \"flood\", global asset prices began to rise sharply-First, in terms of commodity prices, in May 2022, the CRB Commodity Index peaked at 644.04 points, and the lower point (April 2020) was up 296.52 points, or a whopping 85.31%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52bb945f1dcc2fd6f0ea82e6e40e1b5a\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Secondly, from the perspective of house prices, according to OECD statistics, during the epidemic period (9 quarters), the real house price index of OECD member countries increased by 18.8 points in total, with an average quarterly increase of 2.01 points, while between the end of 2015 and 2019 (20 quarters), the house price index only increased by 15.6 points, with an average quarterly increase of only 0.78 points.That is to say, the average quarterly growth of house prices has more than doubled, and in the past two years or so, house prices have risen more than in the past five years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cbc30467442689c009212d27085a85b\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Finally, from a financial market perspective, using the S&P index as the benchmark, at the end of 2021, the S&P peaked at 4796.56 points, an increase of 114.38% from its low. That said, the U.S. stock market nearly doubled last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9e44b114a7d6592f8a051044ec7e3a\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>So why is it that the United States was the biggest beneficiary of last year's asset price surge?In the past few decades of operation, the United States, through coercion(Provoking many wars in the Middle East) Lure (Using the Marshall Plan to tie up Europe, etc.)A large number of high-quality assets have been harvested worldwide. Under the background of sharp rise in asset prices, American capital has naturally expanded obviously.Take the 2021 Forbes list as an example. In 2021, the assets of the top richest people in the United States began to expand significantly, and most of the total assets showed double-digit growth.This is also the first round of harvesting global high-quality assets by the United States.3、The second round of harvesting-tightening the currency, strengthening the purchasing power of the US dollar and gaining the advantage of foreign exchange settlementAfter March 2022, the Federal Reserve started the \"crazy\" rate hike process, and up to now, it has accumulated a rate hike of 300BP.Under the crazy rate hike in the United States, the US Dollar Index has seen a sharp rise.Not long ago, the US Dollar Index crossed the 114-point mark, up 27.67% from its low.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5159854d5a26af759e719b4b4eadf25\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Why is the sharp strength of the US Dollar Index the second round of the U.S. harvest of the world?The sharp appreciation of the US dollar will lead to the need for other countries to exchange more assets (currencies) when the United States exports goods, and the United States can import high-quality resources overseas with less currency.In 2021, for example, the total amount of imported and exported goods in the United States amounted to $5.95 trillion, and the drastic change in the US Dollar Index will lead to the United States gaining approximately $1.64 trillion in exchange gains on foreign exchange settlement.4、The third round of harvesting- -cycle after cycle, the time for the United States to bargain for the bottom of the world is approachingAs we all know, after the world enters the rate hike cycle, the asset bubble will be popped, and because the monetary policy is mostly prognostic management, that is, there is a strong lag, soTighter monetary policy can lead to oversold asset pricesSo that its price performance is lower than its true real value to a certain extent.The United States, as the initiator of the global rate hike cycle, often has a strong influence on the rate hike cycle.Which means,Investors in the United States and the United States can find the most convenient opportunity to bargain-hunting global assets. With the high liquidity of the US dollar, the convenience of bargain-hunting assets in the United States is obviously stronger than that in other countries.Historically, the United States has \"harvested\" wool twice around the world through such rate hike-interest rate cuts:Latin America's lost decade— — In 1970, the Federal Reserve implemented a low interest rate policy to stimulate investment and employment, which led to the depreciation of the US dollar and high inflationary pressure (the Great Stagflation Period). Some Latin American countries took the opportunity to borrow large amounts of low-interest dollars to invest in oil development, resulting in the expanding scale of their foreign debt.In 1980, the Federal Reserve suddenly started the rate hike cycle (Volcker era), the dollar appreciated, the oil price fell, and Latin American countries suddenly fell into the trap of the dollar. In August, 1982, Mexico took the lead in the debt crisis, and then a large number of Latin American countries encountered difficulties in repaying their debts one after another. Therefore, the 1980s was called the \"lost decade\" in Latin America.Southeast Asian financial crisis— — In 1990, the economy of Southeast Asia prospered and developed. Under the manipulation of the Federal Reserve, a large amount of financing flowed into Southeast Asia, and many countries experienced economic overheating. Then, between 1994 and 1995, the Federal Reserve had seven consecutive rate hike over a 13-month period.A strong dollar returned a large amount of capital to the United States, which became a key factor in triggering the financial crisis in Southeast Asia from 1997 to 1998. Southeast Asian countries paid a painful price to recover from the turmoil after the Thai baht depreciated sharply in July 1997 and the shockwave spread quickly.5、The impact of the US dollar in the international market is still relatively largeFrom the perspective of the US dollar itself: all its indicators account for more than 40% of the global total, of which the proportion of foreign exchange transactions and foreign exchange reserves is as high as 85% and 61%.The high proportion of the US dollar in the financial market is the foundation of the hegemony of the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3527857b8cb0ffdec05aac5d76449640\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>From the perspective of economic situation: The United States is still the largest economy in the world. According to the World Bank data, the proportion of GDP of the United States in 2020 accounted for 24.72% of the world (China's 17.37%).Strong economic strength is the basis of dollar hegemony.In terms of military strength: The United States is the country with the highest military spending in the world, with military spending reaching $800 billion in 2021, significantly higher than other countries. In addition, according to People's Daily Online, in 2014, the United States had as many as 598 overseas military bases, covering six continents and four oceans, radiating 40 countries around the world.Strong military strength is an important guarantee for the hegemony of the dollar.The ultra-high US debt has tied together the world's major economies and further strengthened the position of the US dollar.Up to now, the total U.S. debt has risen to 31.15 trillion dollars, even exceeding the total GDP of the United States.Among them, China, Japan and Europe are important holders of U.S. debt, holding a total of 3.55 trillion yuan as of the end of July.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08dc1bac97cefa2a40837dc7a03bc229\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Therefore, as a whole, while the United States' use of dollar hegemony to harvest the world is disgusting, it still has to be admitted,At present, it is still the most important settlement currency in the world, and the foundation of US dollar hegemony has not been shaken.6、Anti-dollarization is imperativeThe world has been bitter for a long time! Anti-dollarization may become the consensus of the international market in the future:Historically, the hegemony of money is not irsubversible-as we all know, after the first industrial revolution, Britain became the most powerful country in the world, known as the \"empire where the sun never sets\". At that time, Britain's control over the global economy was even worse than that of the current United States-it controlled more than 20% of the world's population and more than 25% of the world's land through colonial rule, accounting for more than 70% of the world's economy and more than 80% of the world's gold reserves.However, after World War II, with the weakening of Britain's national power and the rise of the United States, the US dollar replaced the British pound as the main settlement currency in the world.From the current situation,Major countries around the world are starting to reduce their holdings of the US dollar, according to the IMF, official global dollar reserves stood at $6,652.3 billion as of 2022Q2, down $440.2 billion from its high (2021Q3). According to statistics, governments of all countries have made the greatest effort to reduce their holdings of US dollars, reflecting that \"de-dollarization\" has gradually become the consensus of the international market.It may be time for the United States to wake up from the dream of continuing to harvest the world.</body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>No martial ethics! How does the US dollar harvest the world's three rounds?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNo martial ethics! How does the US dollar harvest the world's three rounds?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2022-10-10 18:43\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States directly flipped the table, using its extremely rich oil reserves as a benchmark, and at the same time using guns to make the world believe in America's credibility. Since then, the chapter of US dollar hegemony harvesting the world has officially opened.After two rounds of harvesting, now that the sickle is rising again, the US dollar may have to harvest the third round of the world.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2f2e44e9342a02dce61d7a45fd84d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>1、No martial ethics! The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of dollar hegemonyIn 1944, the United States established the \"Bretton Woods System\" and established the gold standard system of the US dollar. The US dollar was also called \"US dollar\" since then.However, after the defeat of the Vietnam War, the US gold reserves declined rapidly, and it was difficult to convert the US dollar to the originally prescribed amount of gold, which led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system after 1971.So,Why is the collapse of the Bretton Woods system the starting point of dollar hegemony?Because before that, the gold reserve was the basis for the issuance of money by a country's central bank, and paper money was not supported by national credit, but by gold. That is to say, at that time, the US dollar was just an \"exchange voucher\" for gold.However, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar chose to be pegged to crude oil. Because crude oil is not as scarce as gold, the United States can rely on its national credit to issue almost unlimited excess currency (this is also the foundation for the United States to cheat).So,The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of the dollar hegemony. If the Bretton Woods system does not collapse, then the United States can only obediently issue currency according to its gold reserves. But with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar was only supported by an extremely high reserve of crude oil and American credit (which the United States unfortunately did not have).For the global market, because the US dollar has ultra-high liquidity in the international market (accounting for about 85% of global foreign exchange transactions), the United States can harvest the world through a series of monetary means such as rate hike-interest rate cut.2、The first round of harvest-excessive currency issuance, causing global asset prices to riseAfter the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the United States opened an unlimited amount of quantitative easing Policy (QE).Up to now, the stock of M2 in the United States has increased by 6.22 trillion USD (about 44 trillion RMB) compared with the beginning of 2020.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdaf7c3b4de3e2f6c957f665b7884491\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Under the \"flood\", global asset prices began to rise sharply-First, in terms of commodity prices, in May 2022, the CRB Commodity Index peaked at 644.04 points, and the lower point (April 2020) was up 296.52 points, or a whopping 85.31%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52bb945f1dcc2fd6f0ea82e6e40e1b5a\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Secondly, from the perspective of house prices, according to OECD statistics, during the epidemic period (9 quarters), the real house price index of OECD member countries increased by 18.8 points in total, with an average quarterly increase of 2.01 points, while between the end of 2015 and 2019 (20 quarters), the house price index only increased by 15.6 points, with an average quarterly increase of only 0.78 points.That is to say, the average quarterly growth of house prices has more than doubled, and in the past two years or so, house prices have risen more than in the past five years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cbc30467442689c009212d27085a85b\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Finally, from a financial market perspective, using the S&P index as the benchmark, at the end of 2021, the S&P peaked at 4796.56 points, an increase of 114.38% from its low. That said, the U.S. stock market nearly doubled last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9e44b114a7d6592f8a051044ec7e3a\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>So why is it that the United States was the biggest beneficiary of last year's asset price surge?In the past few decades of operation, the United States, through coercion(Provoking many wars in the Middle East) Lure (Using the Marshall Plan to tie up Europe, etc.)A large number of high-quality assets have been harvested worldwide. Under the background of sharp rise in asset prices, American capital has naturally expanded obviously.Take the 2021 Forbes list as an example. In 2021, the assets of the top richest people in the United States began to expand significantly, and most of the total assets showed double-digit growth.This is also the first round of harvesting global high-quality assets by the United States.3、The second round of harvesting-tightening the currency, strengthening the purchasing power of the US dollar and gaining the advantage of foreign exchange settlementAfter March 2022, the Federal Reserve started the \"crazy\" rate hike process, and up to now, it has accumulated a rate hike of 300BP.Under the crazy rate hike in the United States, the US Dollar Index has seen a sharp rise.Not long ago, the US Dollar Index crossed the 114-point mark, up 27.67% from its low.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5159854d5a26af759e719b4b4eadf25\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Why is the sharp strength of the US Dollar Index the second round of the U.S. harvest of the world?The sharp appreciation of the US dollar will lead to the need for other countries to exchange more assets (currencies) when the United States exports goods, and the United States can import high-quality resources overseas with less currency.In 2021, for example, the total amount of imported and exported goods in the United States amounted to $5.95 trillion, and the drastic change in the US Dollar Index will lead to the United States gaining approximately $1.64 trillion in exchange gains on foreign exchange settlement.4、The third round of harvesting- -cycle after cycle, the time for the United States to bargain for the bottom of the world is approachingAs we all know, after the world enters the rate hike cycle, the asset bubble will be popped, and because the monetary policy is mostly prognostic management, that is, there is a strong lag, soTighter monetary policy can lead to oversold asset pricesSo that its price performance is lower than its true real value to a certain extent.The United States, as the initiator of the global rate hike cycle, often has a strong influence on the rate hike cycle.Which means,Investors in the United States and the United States can find the most convenient opportunity to bargain-hunting global assets. With the high liquidity of the US dollar, the convenience of bargain-hunting assets in the United States is obviously stronger than that in other countries.Historically, the United States has \"harvested\" wool twice around the world through such rate hike-interest rate cuts:Latin America's lost decade— — In 1970, the Federal Reserve implemented a low interest rate policy to stimulate investment and employment, which led to the depreciation of the US dollar and high inflationary pressure (the Great Stagflation Period). Some Latin American countries took the opportunity to borrow large amounts of low-interest dollars to invest in oil development, resulting in the expanding scale of their foreign debt.In 1980, the Federal Reserve suddenly started the rate hike cycle (Volcker era), the dollar appreciated, the oil price fell, and Latin American countries suddenly fell into the trap of the dollar. In August, 1982, Mexico took the lead in the debt crisis, and then a large number of Latin American countries encountered difficulties in repaying their debts one after another. Therefore, the 1980s was called the \"lost decade\" in Latin America.Southeast Asian financial crisis— — In 1990, the economy of Southeast Asia prospered and developed. Under the manipulation of the Federal Reserve, a large amount of financing flowed into Southeast Asia, and many countries experienced economic overheating. Then, between 1994 and 1995, the Federal Reserve had seven consecutive rate hike over a 13-month period.A strong dollar returned a large amount of capital to the United States, which became a key factor in triggering the financial crisis in Southeast Asia from 1997 to 1998. Southeast Asian countries paid a painful price to recover from the turmoil after the Thai baht depreciated sharply in July 1997 and the shockwave spread quickly.5、The impact of the US dollar in the international market is still relatively largeFrom the perspective of the US dollar itself: all its indicators account for more than 40% of the global total, of which the proportion of foreign exchange transactions and foreign exchange reserves is as high as 85% and 61%.The high proportion of the US dollar in the financial market is the foundation of the hegemony of the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3527857b8cb0ffdec05aac5d76449640\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>From the perspective of economic situation: The United States is still the largest economy in the world. According to the World Bank data, the proportion of GDP of the United States in 2020 accounted for 24.72% of the world (China's 17.37%).Strong economic strength is the basis of dollar hegemony.In terms of military strength: The United States is the country with the highest military spending in the world, with military spending reaching $800 billion in 2021, significantly higher than other countries. In addition, according to People's Daily Online, in 2014, the United States had as many as 598 overseas military bases, covering six continents and four oceans, radiating 40 countries around the world.Strong military strength is an important guarantee for the hegemony of the dollar.The ultra-high US debt has tied together the world's major economies and further strengthened the position of the US dollar.Up to now, the total U.S. debt has risen to 31.15 trillion dollars, even exceeding the total GDP of the United States.Among them, China, Japan and Europe are important holders of U.S. debt, holding a total of 3.55 trillion yuan as of the end of July.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08dc1bac97cefa2a40837dc7a03bc229\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Therefore, as a whole, while the United States' use of dollar hegemony to harvest the world is disgusting, it still has to be admitted,At present, it is still the most important settlement currency in the world, and the foundation of US dollar hegemony has not been shaken.6、Anti-dollarization is imperativeThe world has been bitter for a long time! Anti-dollarization may become the consensus of the international market in the future:Historically, the hegemony of money is not irsubversible-as we all know, after the first industrial revolution, Britain became the most powerful country in the world, known as the \"empire where the sun never sets\". At that time, Britain's control over the global economy was even worse than that of the current United States-it controlled more than 20% of the world's population and more than 25% of the world's land through colonial rule, accounting for more than 70% of the world's economy and more than 80% of the world's gold reserves.However, after World War II, with the weakening of Britain's national power and the rise of the United States, the US dollar replaced the British pound as the main settlement currency in the world.From the current situation,Major countries around the world are starting to reduce their holdings of the US dollar, according to the IMF, official global dollar reserves stood at $6,652.3 billion as of 2022Q2, down $440.2 billion from its high (2021Q3). According to statistics, governments of all countries have made the greatest effort to reduce their holdings of US dollars, reflecting that \"de-dollarization\" has gradually become the consensus of the international market.It may be time for the United States to wake up from the dream of continuing to harvest the world.</body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xTVot4dfhnhbGofF9DYYJw\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d21e136ce4e27586f0bca6b38743d02a","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xTVot4dfhnhbGofF9DYYJw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165840458","content_text":"布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美国直接掀了桌子，一边拿储量极其丰富的石油做基准，一边拿着枪炮让全球去相信美国的信誉。此后，美元霸权收割全球的篇章正式打开。经历过两轮收割后，如今镰刀再起，美元可能又要收割全球第三轮。1、不讲武德！布雷顿森林体系崩溃是美元霸权的起点1944年美国确立了“布雷顿森林体系”，建立了美元的金本位制度，美元也在此后被称为“美金”。但在越战失败后，美国黄金储备量迅速下降，美元难以兑换到原本规定的黄金量，导致1971年后，布雷顿森林体系宣布崩溃。那么，为什么说布雷顿森林体系崩溃是美元霸权的起点呢？因为在此之前，黄金储备量是一国央行发行货币基础，纸币并非由国家信用来支撑，而是由黄金来作为基础。也就是说，当时美元只是黄金的“兑换券”。但布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美元选择与原油挂钩，由于原油并不具备黄金的稀缺性，所以美国可以依仗其国家信用，近乎无限制的超发货币（这也是美国开始耍赖的根基）。所以，布雷顿森林体系的崩溃是美元霸权的起点，若是布雷顿森林体系不崩溃，那么美国只能乖乖的按照其黄金储备量来发行货币。但随着布雷顿森林体系崩溃，美元的支撑只有一个储量极高的原油以及美国的信用（可惜美国没有）。对于全球市场来说，由于美元在国际市场上具有超高的流动性（占全球外汇交易的85%左右），所以美国可以通过加息-降息等一系列货币手段来收割全球。2、第一轮收割——超发货币，导致全球资产价格上涨2020年新冠疫情爆发后，美国开启了无限量的量化宽松政策（QE）。截至目前，美国的M2存量较2020年初上升了6.22万亿美元（约44万亿人民币）。“大水漫灌”下，全球资产价格开始大幅上涨——首先，从大宗商品价格来看，2022年5月，CRB商品指数触顶达到644.04点，较低点（2020年4月）上涨了296.52点，涨幅高达85.31%。其次，从房价来看，据OECD统计，疫情期间（9个季度），经合组织成员国实际房价指数共计上涨了18.8个点，季均上涨了2.01个点，而2015-2019年底间（20个季度），房价指数也只上涨了15.6个点，季均仅上涨0.78个点。也就是说，房价的季均增长翻了一倍以上，且近两年多来，房价的涨幅比过去5年还多。最后，从金融市场来看，以标普指数为基准，2021年底，标普触顶达到4796.56点，较低点增长了114.38%。也就是说，去年美国的股市接近翻了一番。那么，为什么说这是美国是去年资产价格大涨的最大受益者呢？在过去几十年的经营下，美国通过威逼（在中东挑起多次战争）利诱（利用马歇尔计划捆绑欧洲等）在全球收割了大量的优质资产。而在资产价格大幅上涨的背景下，美国资本自然得到了极为明显的扩张。以2021年的福布斯排行榜为例，2021年美国顶尖富豪的资产开始大幅的扩张，资产总量大多出现了两位数的增长。这，也是美国对全球优质资产的第一轮收割。3、第二轮收割——收紧货币，加强美元购买力，获得结汇优势2022年3月后，美联储开启“疯狂”的加息进程，截至目前已经累计加息了300BP。在美国疯狂的加息下，美元指数出现大幅的上涨。前不久，美元指数突破114点大关，较其低点上涨了27.67%。为什么说美元指数的大幅走强是美国收割全球的第二轮呢？美元的大幅升值将导致美国出口商品时，其他国家需要用更多的资产（货币）来兑换，且美国可以通过更少的货币去进口海外的优质资源。以2021年为例，美国进出口商品总额高达5.95万亿美元，美元指数的大幅变动将导致美国在结汇上获取大约1.64万亿美元的汇兑收益。4、第三轮收割——周而复始，美国抄底全球的时机逼近众所周知，全球进入加息周期后，资产的泡沫将被戳破，且由于货币政策大多是预后管理，即存在较强的滞后性，所以紧缩的货币政策会导致资产价格超跌，使得其价格表现在一定程度内低于其真实的实际价值。美国，作为全球加息周期的始作俑者，其对于加息周期的经常存在较强的影响力。这也就是说，美国以及美国的投资者能够最便捷的找到抄底全球资产的时机，叠加美元的高流动性下，美国抄底资产的便捷性也明显强于其他国家。在历史上，美国已经通过这样加息-降息的手段，已经在全球“薅”了两次羊毛：拉美失去的十年——1970年，美联储实行低利率政策刺激投资与就业，导致美元贬值，通胀压力高企（大滞胀时期）。部分拉美国家趁机借入大量低利息的美元，投资石油开发，导致其外债规模不断膨胀。1980年美联储突然开启加息周期（沃尔克时代），美元升值，石油价格下跌，拉美国家一下子掉进了美元的陷阱。1982年8月，墨西哥率先爆发债务危机，随后大量拉美国家相继遭遇还债困难，80年代也因此被称作拉美地区“失去的十年”。东南亚金融危机——1990年，东南亚地区经济繁荣发展，在美联储操纵下，大量融资流入东南亚，多国出现经济过热的现象。随后在1994到1995年间，美联储在13个月的时间里接连七次加息。强势美元使大量资本回流美国，成为触发1997到1998年东南亚金融危机的关键因素。1997年7月泰铢大幅贬值，随后冲击波很快蔓延开来，东南亚国家付出了惨痛的代价才从此次动荡中恢复过来。5、美元在国际市场上的影响仍较大从美元自身来看：其各项指标占全全球总量的比重均在40%以上，其中外汇交易以及外汇储备的比重更是高达85%和61%。美元在金融市场上的高占比，是美元霸权的根基。从经济情况来看：美国目前仍是全球第一大经济体，据世界银行数据，2020年美国GDP比重占全球的24.72%（中国为17.37%）。较强的经济实力，是美元霸权的基础。从军事实力来看：美国是全球军费开支最高的国家，2021年军费开支达8000亿美元，明显高于其他国家。此外，据人民网报道，2014年美国在海外军事基地便高达598处，遍及六大洲、四大洋，辐射全球40个国家。强大的军事实力是美元霸权的重要保障。超高的美债将全球主要的经济体捆绑在一起，进一步加强美元的地位。截至目前美债总额已上升至31.15万亿美元，甚至超过了美国的GDP总额。其中，中日欧是美债的重要持有方，截至7月末，合计持有3.55万亿。所以，整体来看，虽然美国利用美元霸权收割全球的行径令人作呕，但仍然不得不承认，目前仍然是全球最主要的结算货币，美元霸权的基础尚没有动摇。6、逆美元化势在必行天下苦美元久矣！逆美元化可能将成为未来国际市场的共识：从历史来看，货币的霸权并非不可颠覆——众所周知，第一次工业革命后，英国成为了全球最强大的国家，号称“日不落帝国”，当时英国对全球经济的掌控较目前的美国有过之而无不及——通过殖民统治控制了全球20%以上的人口以及25%以上的土地，经济体量占全球的70%以上，黄金储备量占全球的80%以上。但在二战后，随着英国国力的衰弱以及美国的崛起，美元才取代英镑成为全球主要的结算货币。从当前情况来看，全球各主要国家均在开始减持美元，据IMF统计，截至2022Q2，全球官方美元储备为66523亿美元，较其高点（2021Q3）下降了4402亿美元。是据统计以来，各国政府减持美元力度最大的一次，反映“去美元化”已经逐步成为国际市场的共识。美国继续收割全球的美梦，或许该醒醒了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":666367128,"gmtCreate":1665450160769,"gmtModify":1676537607952,"author":{"id":"3548236649718288","authorId":"3548236649718288","name":"美港股韭菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b187ccde00aa9af84374deb316d08cb","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3548236649718288","authorIdStr":"3548236649718288"},"htmlText":"不講武德，A股如何反覆收割股民十年。","listText":"不講武德，A股如何反覆收割股民十年。","text":"不講武德，A股如何反覆收割股民十年。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/666367128","repostId":1165840458,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1165840458","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665398618,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165840458?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-10 18:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"No martial ethics! How does the US dollar harvest the world's three rounds?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165840458","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美国直接掀了桌子，一边拿储量极其丰富的石油做基准，一边拿着枪炮让全球去相信美国的信誉。此后，美元霸权收割全球的篇章正式打开。经历过两轮收割后，如今镰刀再起，美元可能又要收割全球第","content":"<html><head></head><body>After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States directly flipped the table, using its extremely rich oil reserves as a benchmark, and at the same time using guns to make the world believe in America's credibility. Since then, the chapter of US dollar hegemony harvesting the world has officially opened.After two rounds of harvesting, now that the sickle is rising again, the US dollar may have to harvest the third round of the world.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2f2e44e9342a02dce61d7a45fd84d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>1、No martial ethics! The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of dollar hegemonyIn 1944, the United States established the \"Bretton Woods System\" and established the gold standard system of the US dollar. The US dollar was also called \"US dollar\" since then.However, after the defeat of the Vietnam War, the US gold reserves declined rapidly, and it was difficult to convert the US dollar to the originally prescribed amount of gold, which led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system after 1971.So,Why is the collapse of the Bretton Woods system the starting point of dollar hegemony?Because before that, the gold reserve was the basis for the issuance of money by a country's central bank, and paper money was not supported by national credit, but by gold. That is to say, at that time, the US dollar was just an \"exchange voucher\" for gold.However, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar chose to be pegged to crude oil. Because crude oil is not as scarce as gold, the United States can rely on its national credit to issue almost unlimited excess currency (this is also the foundation for the United States to cheat).So,The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of the dollar hegemony. If the Bretton Woods system does not collapse, then the United States can only obediently issue currency according to its gold reserves. But with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar was only supported by an extremely high reserve of crude oil and American credit (which the United States unfortunately did not have).For the global market, because the US dollar has ultra-high liquidity in the international market (accounting for about 85% of global foreign exchange transactions), the United States can harvest the world through a series of monetary means such as rate hike-interest rate cut.2、The first round of harvest-excessive currency issuance, causing global asset prices to riseAfter the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the United States opened an unlimited amount of quantitative easing Policy (QE).Up to now, the stock of M2 in the United States has increased by 6.22 trillion USD (about 44 trillion RMB) compared with the beginning of 2020.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdaf7c3b4de3e2f6c957f665b7884491\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Under the \"flood\", global asset prices began to rise sharply-First, in terms of commodity prices, in May 2022, the CRB Commodity Index peaked at 644.04 points, and the lower point (April 2020) was up 296.52 points, or a whopping 85.31%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52bb945f1dcc2fd6f0ea82e6e40e1b5a\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Secondly, from the perspective of house prices, according to OECD statistics, during the epidemic period (9 quarters), the real house price index of OECD member countries increased by 18.8 points in total, with an average quarterly increase of 2.01 points, while between the end of 2015 and 2019 (20 quarters), the house price index only increased by 15.6 points, with an average quarterly increase of only 0.78 points.That is to say, the average quarterly growth of house prices has more than doubled, and in the past two years or so, house prices have risen more than in the past five years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cbc30467442689c009212d27085a85b\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Finally, from a financial market perspective, using the S&P index as the benchmark, at the end of 2021, the S&P peaked at 4796.56 points, an increase of 114.38% from its low. That said, the U.S. stock market nearly doubled last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9e44b114a7d6592f8a051044ec7e3a\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>So why is it that the United States was the biggest beneficiary of last year's asset price surge?In the past few decades of operation, the United States, through coercion(Provoking many wars in the Middle East) Lure (Using the Marshall Plan to tie up Europe, etc.)A large number of high-quality assets have been harvested worldwide. Under the background of sharp rise in asset prices, American capital has naturally expanded obviously.Take the 2021 Forbes list as an example. In 2021, the assets of the top richest people in the United States began to expand significantly, and most of the total assets showed double-digit growth.This is also the first round of harvesting global high-quality assets by the United States.3、The second round of harvesting-tightening the currency, strengthening the purchasing power of the US dollar and gaining the advantage of foreign exchange settlementAfter March 2022, the Federal Reserve started the \"crazy\" rate hike process, and up to now, it has accumulated a rate hike of 300BP.Under the crazy rate hike in the United States, the US Dollar Index has seen a sharp rise.Not long ago, the US Dollar Index crossed the 114-point mark, up 27.67% from its low.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5159854d5a26af759e719b4b4eadf25\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Why is the sharp strength of the US Dollar Index the second round of the U.S. harvest of the world?The sharp appreciation of the US dollar will lead to the need for other countries to exchange more assets (currencies) when the United States exports goods, and the United States can import high-quality resources overseas with less currency.In 2021, for example, the total amount of imported and exported goods in the United States amounted to $5.95 trillion, and the drastic change in the US Dollar Index will lead to the United States gaining approximately $1.64 trillion in exchange gains on foreign exchange settlement.4、The third round of harvesting- -cycle after cycle, the time for the United States to bargain for the bottom of the world is approachingAs we all know, after the world enters the rate hike cycle, the asset bubble will be popped, and because the monetary policy is mostly prognostic management, that is, there is a strong lag, soTighter monetary policy can lead to oversold asset pricesSo that its price performance is lower than its true real value to a certain extent.The United States, as the initiator of the global rate hike cycle, often has a strong influence on the rate hike cycle.Which means,Investors in the United States and the United States can find the most convenient opportunity to bargain-hunting global assets. With the high liquidity of the US dollar, the convenience of bargain-hunting assets in the United States is obviously stronger than that in other countries.Historically, the United States has \"harvested\" wool twice around the world through such rate hike-interest rate cuts:Latin America's lost decade— — In 1970, the Federal Reserve implemented a low interest rate policy to stimulate investment and employment, which led to the depreciation of the US dollar and high inflationary pressure (the Great Stagflation Period). Some Latin American countries took the opportunity to borrow large amounts of low-interest dollars to invest in oil development, resulting in the expanding scale of their foreign debt.In 1980, the Federal Reserve suddenly started the rate hike cycle (Volcker era), the dollar appreciated, the oil price fell, and Latin American countries suddenly fell into the trap of the dollar. In August, 1982, Mexico took the lead in the debt crisis, and then a large number of Latin American countries encountered difficulties in repaying their debts one after another. Therefore, the 1980s was called the \"lost decade\" in Latin America.Southeast Asian financial crisis— — In 1990, the economy of Southeast Asia prospered and developed. Under the manipulation of the Federal Reserve, a large amount of financing flowed into Southeast Asia, and many countries experienced economic overheating. Then, between 1994 and 1995, the Federal Reserve had seven consecutive rate hike over a 13-month period.A strong dollar returned a large amount of capital to the United States, which became a key factor in triggering the financial crisis in Southeast Asia from 1997 to 1998. Southeast Asian countries paid a painful price to recover from the turmoil after the Thai baht depreciated sharply in July 1997 and the shockwave spread quickly.5、The impact of the US dollar in the international market is still relatively largeFrom the perspective of the US dollar itself: all its indicators account for more than 40% of the global total, of which the proportion of foreign exchange transactions and foreign exchange reserves is as high as 85% and 61%.The high proportion of the US dollar in the financial market is the foundation of the hegemony of the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3527857b8cb0ffdec05aac5d76449640\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>From the perspective of economic situation: The United States is still the largest economy in the world. According to the World Bank data, the proportion of GDP of the United States in 2020 accounted for 24.72% of the world (China's 17.37%).Strong economic strength is the basis of dollar hegemony.In terms of military strength: The United States is the country with the highest military spending in the world, with military spending reaching $800 billion in 2021, significantly higher than other countries. In addition, according to People's Daily Online, in 2014, the United States had as many as 598 overseas military bases, covering six continents and four oceans, radiating 40 countries around the world.Strong military strength is an important guarantee for the hegemony of the dollar.The ultra-high US debt has tied together the world's major economies and further strengthened the position of the US dollar.Up to now, the total U.S. debt has risen to 31.15 trillion dollars, even exceeding the total GDP of the United States.Among them, China, Japan and Europe are important holders of U.S. debt, holding a total of 3.55 trillion yuan as of the end of July.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08dc1bac97cefa2a40837dc7a03bc229\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Therefore, as a whole, while the United States' use of dollar hegemony to harvest the world is disgusting, it still has to be admitted,At present, it is still the most important settlement currency in the world, and the foundation of US dollar hegemony has not been shaken.6、Anti-dollarization is imperativeThe world has been bitter for a long time! Anti-dollarization may become the consensus of the international market in the future:Historically, the hegemony of money is not irsubversible-as we all know, after the first industrial revolution, Britain became the most powerful country in the world, known as the \"empire where the sun never sets\". At that time, Britain's control over the global economy was even worse than that of the current United States-it controlled more than 20% of the world's population and more than 25% of the world's land through colonial rule, accounting for more than 70% of the world's economy and more than 80% of the world's gold reserves.However, after World War II, with the weakening of Britain's national power and the rise of the United States, the US dollar replaced the British pound as the main settlement currency in the world.From the current situation,Major countries around the world are starting to reduce their holdings of the US dollar, according to the IMF, official global dollar reserves stood at $6,652.3 billion as of 2022Q2, down $440.2 billion from its high (2021Q3). According to statistics, governments of all countries have made the greatest effort to reduce their holdings of US dollars, reflecting that \"de-dollarization\" has gradually become the consensus of the international market.It may be time for the United States to wake up from the dream of continuing to harvest the world.</body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>No martial ethics! How does the US dollar harvest the world's three rounds?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNo martial ethics! How does the US dollar harvest the world's three rounds?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2022-10-10 18:43\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States directly flipped the table, using its extremely rich oil reserves as a benchmark, and at the same time using guns to make the world believe in America's credibility. Since then, the chapter of US dollar hegemony harvesting the world has officially opened.After two rounds of harvesting, now that the sickle is rising again, the US dollar may have to harvest the third round of the world.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2f2e44e9342a02dce61d7a45fd84d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>1、No martial ethics! The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of dollar hegemonyIn 1944, the United States established the \"Bretton Woods System\" and established the gold standard system of the US dollar. The US dollar was also called \"US dollar\" since then.However, after the defeat of the Vietnam War, the US gold reserves declined rapidly, and it was difficult to convert the US dollar to the originally prescribed amount of gold, which led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system after 1971.So,Why is the collapse of the Bretton Woods system the starting point of dollar hegemony?Because before that, the gold reserve was the basis for the issuance of money by a country's central bank, and paper money was not supported by national credit, but by gold. That is to say, at that time, the US dollar was just an \"exchange voucher\" for gold.However, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar chose to be pegged to crude oil. Because crude oil is not as scarce as gold, the United States can rely on its national credit to issue almost unlimited excess currency (this is also the foundation for the United States to cheat).So,The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of the dollar hegemony. If the Bretton Woods system does not collapse, then the United States can only obediently issue currency according to its gold reserves. But with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar was only supported by an extremely high reserve of crude oil and American credit (which the United States unfortunately did not have).For the global market, because the US dollar has ultra-high liquidity in the international market (accounting for about 85% of global foreign exchange transactions), the United States can harvest the world through a series of monetary means such as rate hike-interest rate cut.2、The first round of harvest-excessive currency issuance, causing global asset prices to riseAfter the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the United States opened an unlimited amount of quantitative easing Policy (QE).Up to now, the stock of M2 in the United States has increased by 6.22 trillion USD (about 44 trillion RMB) compared with the beginning of 2020.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdaf7c3b4de3e2f6c957f665b7884491\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Under the \"flood\", global asset prices began to rise sharply-First, in terms of commodity prices, in May 2022, the CRB Commodity Index peaked at 644.04 points, and the lower point (April 2020) was up 296.52 points, or a whopping 85.31%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52bb945f1dcc2fd6f0ea82e6e40e1b5a\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Secondly, from the perspective of house prices, according to OECD statistics, during the epidemic period (9 quarters), the real house price index of OECD member countries increased by 18.8 points in total, with an average quarterly increase of 2.01 points, while between the end of 2015 and 2019 (20 quarters), the house price index only increased by 15.6 points, with an average quarterly increase of only 0.78 points.That is to say, the average quarterly growth of house prices has more than doubled, and in the past two years or so, house prices have risen more than in the past five years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cbc30467442689c009212d27085a85b\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Finally, from a financial market perspective, using the S&P index as the benchmark, at the end of 2021, the S&P peaked at 4796.56 points, an increase of 114.38% from its low. That said, the U.S. stock market nearly doubled last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9e44b114a7d6592f8a051044ec7e3a\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>So why is it that the United States was the biggest beneficiary of last year's asset price surge?In the past few decades of operation, the United States, through coercion(Provoking many wars in the Middle East) Lure (Using the Marshall Plan to tie up Europe, etc.)A large number of high-quality assets have been harvested worldwide. Under the background of sharp rise in asset prices, American capital has naturally expanded obviously.Take the 2021 Forbes list as an example. In 2021, the assets of the top richest people in the United States began to expand significantly, and most of the total assets showed double-digit growth.This is also the first round of harvesting global high-quality assets by the United States.3、The second round of harvesting-tightening the currency, strengthening the purchasing power of the US dollar and gaining the advantage of foreign exchange settlementAfter March 2022, the Federal Reserve started the \"crazy\" rate hike process, and up to now, it has accumulated a rate hike of 300BP.Under the crazy rate hike in the United States, the US Dollar Index has seen a sharp rise.Not long ago, the US Dollar Index crossed the 114-point mark, up 27.67% from its low.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5159854d5a26af759e719b4b4eadf25\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Why is the sharp strength of the US Dollar Index the second round of the U.S. harvest of the world?The sharp appreciation of the US dollar will lead to the need for other countries to exchange more assets (currencies) when the United States exports goods, and the United States can import high-quality resources overseas with less currency.In 2021, for example, the total amount of imported and exported goods in the United States amounted to $5.95 trillion, and the drastic change in the US Dollar Index will lead to the United States gaining approximately $1.64 trillion in exchange gains on foreign exchange settlement.4、The third round of harvesting- -cycle after cycle, the time for the United States to bargain for the bottom of the world is approachingAs we all know, after the world enters the rate hike cycle, the asset bubble will be popped, and because the monetary policy is mostly prognostic management, that is, there is a strong lag, soTighter monetary policy can lead to oversold asset pricesSo that its price performance is lower than its true real value to a certain extent.The United States, as the initiator of the global rate hike cycle, often has a strong influence on the rate hike cycle.Which means,Investors in the United States and the United States can find the most convenient opportunity to bargain-hunting global assets. With the high liquidity of the US dollar, the convenience of bargain-hunting assets in the United States is obviously stronger than that in other countries.Historically, the United States has \"harvested\" wool twice around the world through such rate hike-interest rate cuts:Latin America's lost decade— — In 1970, the Federal Reserve implemented a low interest rate policy to stimulate investment and employment, which led to the depreciation of the US dollar and high inflationary pressure (the Great Stagflation Period). Some Latin American countries took the opportunity to borrow large amounts of low-interest dollars to invest in oil development, resulting in the expanding scale of their foreign debt.In 1980, the Federal Reserve suddenly started the rate hike cycle (Volcker era), the dollar appreciated, the oil price fell, and Latin American countries suddenly fell into the trap of the dollar. In August, 1982, Mexico took the lead in the debt crisis, and then a large number of Latin American countries encountered difficulties in repaying their debts one after another. Therefore, the 1980s was called the \"lost decade\" in Latin America.Southeast Asian financial crisis— — In 1990, the economy of Southeast Asia prospered and developed. Under the manipulation of the Federal Reserve, a large amount of financing flowed into Southeast Asia, and many countries experienced economic overheating. Then, between 1994 and 1995, the Federal Reserve had seven consecutive rate hike over a 13-month period.A strong dollar returned a large amount of capital to the United States, which became a key factor in triggering the financial crisis in Southeast Asia from 1997 to 1998. Southeast Asian countries paid a painful price to recover from the turmoil after the Thai baht depreciated sharply in July 1997 and the shockwave spread quickly.5、The impact of the US dollar in the international market is still relatively largeFrom the perspective of the US dollar itself: all its indicators account for more than 40% of the global total, of which the proportion of foreign exchange transactions and foreign exchange reserves is as high as 85% and 61%.The high proportion of the US dollar in the financial market is the foundation of the hegemony of the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3527857b8cb0ffdec05aac5d76449640\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>From the perspective of economic situation: The United States is still the largest economy in the world. According to the World Bank data, the proportion of GDP of the United States in 2020 accounted for 24.72% of the world (China's 17.37%).Strong economic strength is the basis of dollar hegemony.In terms of military strength: The United States is the country with the highest military spending in the world, with military spending reaching $800 billion in 2021, significantly higher than other countries. In addition, according to People's Daily Online, in 2014, the United States had as many as 598 overseas military bases, covering six continents and four oceans, radiating 40 countries around the world.Strong military strength is an important guarantee for the hegemony of the dollar.The ultra-high US debt has tied together the world's major economies and further strengthened the position of the US dollar.Up to now, the total U.S. debt has risen to 31.15 trillion dollars, even exceeding the total GDP of the United States.Among them, China, Japan and Europe are important holders of U.S. debt, holding a total of 3.55 trillion yuan as of the end of July.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08dc1bac97cefa2a40837dc7a03bc229\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Therefore, as a whole, while the United States' use of dollar hegemony to harvest the world is disgusting, it still has to be admitted,At present, it is still the most important settlement currency in the world, and the foundation of US dollar hegemony has not been shaken.6、Anti-dollarization is imperativeThe world has been bitter for a long time! Anti-dollarization may become the consensus of the international market in the future:Historically, the hegemony of money is not irsubversible-as we all know, after the first industrial revolution, Britain became the most powerful country in the world, known as the \"empire where the sun never sets\". At that time, Britain's control over the global economy was even worse than that of the current United States-it controlled more than 20% of the world's population and more than 25% of the world's land through colonial rule, accounting for more than 70% of the world's economy and more than 80% of the world's gold reserves.However, after World War II, with the weakening of Britain's national power and the rise of the United States, the US dollar replaced the British pound as the main settlement currency in the world.From the current situation,Major countries around the world are starting to reduce their holdings of the US dollar, according to the IMF, official global dollar reserves stood at $6,652.3 billion as of 2022Q2, down $440.2 billion from its high (2021Q3). According to statistics, governments of all countries have made the greatest effort to reduce their holdings of US dollars, reflecting that \"de-dollarization\" has gradually become the consensus of the international market.It may be time for the United States to wake up from the dream of continuing to harvest the world.</body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xTVot4dfhnhbGofF9DYYJw\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d21e136ce4e27586f0bca6b38743d02a","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xTVot4dfhnhbGofF9DYYJw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165840458","content_text":"布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美国直接掀了桌子，一边拿储量极其丰富的石油做基准，一边拿着枪炮让全球去相信美国的信誉。此后，美元霸权收割全球的篇章正式打开。经历过两轮收割后，如今镰刀再起，美元可能又要收割全球第三轮。1、不讲武德！布雷顿森林体系崩溃是美元霸权的起点1944年美国确立了“布雷顿森林体系”，建立了美元的金本位制度，美元也在此后被称为“美金”。但在越战失败后，美国黄金储备量迅速下降，美元难以兑换到原本规定的黄金量，导致1971年后，布雷顿森林体系宣布崩溃。那么，为什么说布雷顿森林体系崩溃是美元霸权的起点呢？因为在此之前，黄金储备量是一国央行发行货币基础，纸币并非由国家信用来支撑，而是由黄金来作为基础。也就是说，当时美元只是黄金的“兑换券”。但布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美元选择与原油挂钩，由于原油并不具备黄金的稀缺性，所以美国可以依仗其国家信用，近乎无限制的超发货币（这也是美国开始耍赖的根基）。所以，布雷顿森林体系的崩溃是美元霸权的起点，若是布雷顿森林体系不崩溃，那么美国只能乖乖的按照其黄金储备量来发行货币。但随着布雷顿森林体系崩溃，美元的支撑只有一个储量极高的原油以及美国的信用（可惜美国没有）。对于全球市场来说，由于美元在国际市场上具有超高的流动性（占全球外汇交易的85%左右），所以美国可以通过加息-降息等一系列货币手段来收割全球。2、第一轮收割——超发货币，导致全球资产价格上涨2020年新冠疫情爆发后，美国开启了无限量的量化宽松政策（QE）。截至目前，美国的M2存量较2020年初上升了6.22万亿美元（约44万亿人民币）。“大水漫灌”下，全球资产价格开始大幅上涨——首先，从大宗商品价格来看，2022年5月，CRB商品指数触顶达到644.04点，较低点（2020年4月）上涨了296.52点，涨幅高达85.31%。其次，从房价来看，据OECD统计，疫情期间（9个季度），经合组织成员国实际房价指数共计上涨了18.8个点，季均上涨了2.01个点，而2015-2019年底间（20个季度），房价指数也只上涨了15.6个点，季均仅上涨0.78个点。也就是说，房价的季均增长翻了一倍以上，且近两年多来，房价的涨幅比过去5年还多。最后，从金融市场来看，以标普指数为基准，2021年底，标普触顶达到4796.56点，较低点增长了114.38%。也就是说，去年美国的股市接近翻了一番。那么，为什么说这是美国是去年资产价格大涨的最大受益者呢？在过去几十年的经营下，美国通过威逼（在中东挑起多次战争）利诱（利用马歇尔计划捆绑欧洲等）在全球收割了大量的优质资产。而在资产价格大幅上涨的背景下，美国资本自然得到了极为明显的扩张。以2021年的福布斯排行榜为例，2021年美国顶尖富豪的资产开始大幅的扩张，资产总量大多出现了两位数的增长。这，也是美国对全球优质资产的第一轮收割。3、第二轮收割——收紧货币，加强美元购买力，获得结汇优势2022年3月后，美联储开启“疯狂”的加息进程，截至目前已经累计加息了300BP。在美国疯狂的加息下，美元指数出现大幅的上涨。前不久，美元指数突破114点大关，较其低点上涨了27.67%。为什么说美元指数的大幅走强是美国收割全球的第二轮呢？美元的大幅升值将导致美国出口商品时，其他国家需要用更多的资产（货币）来兑换，且美国可以通过更少的货币去进口海外的优质资源。以2021年为例，美国进出口商品总额高达5.95万亿美元，美元指数的大幅变动将导致美国在结汇上获取大约1.64万亿美元的汇兑收益。4、第三轮收割——周而复始，美国抄底全球的时机逼近众所周知，全球进入加息周期后，资产的泡沫将被戳破，且由于货币政策大多是预后管理，即存在较强的滞后性，所以紧缩的货币政策会导致资产价格超跌，使得其价格表现在一定程度内低于其真实的实际价值。美国，作为全球加息周期的始作俑者，其对于加息周期的经常存在较强的影响力。这也就是说，美国以及美国的投资者能够最便捷的找到抄底全球资产的时机，叠加美元的高流动性下，美国抄底资产的便捷性也明显强于其他国家。在历史上，美国已经通过这样加息-降息的手段，已经在全球“薅”了两次羊毛：拉美失去的十年——1970年，美联储实行低利率政策刺激投资与就业，导致美元贬值，通胀压力高企（大滞胀时期）。部分拉美国家趁机借入大量低利息的美元，投资石油开发，导致其外债规模不断膨胀。1980年美联储突然开启加息周期（沃尔克时代），美元升值，石油价格下跌，拉美国家一下子掉进了美元的陷阱。1982年8月，墨西哥率先爆发债务危机，随后大量拉美国家相继遭遇还债困难，80年代也因此被称作拉美地区“失去的十年”。东南亚金融危机——1990年，东南亚地区经济繁荣发展，在美联储操纵下，大量融资流入东南亚，多国出现经济过热的现象。随后在1994到1995年间，美联储在13个月的时间里接连七次加息。强势美元使大量资本回流美国，成为触发1997到1998年东南亚金融危机的关键因素。1997年7月泰铢大幅贬值，随后冲击波很快蔓延开来，东南亚国家付出了惨痛的代价才从此次动荡中恢复过来。5、美元在国际市场上的影响仍较大从美元自身来看：其各项指标占全全球总量的比重均在40%以上，其中外汇交易以及外汇储备的比重更是高达85%和61%。美元在金融市场上的高占比，是美元霸权的根基。从经济情况来看：美国目前仍是全球第一大经济体，据世界银行数据，2020年美国GDP比重占全球的24.72%（中国为17.37%）。较强的经济实力，是美元霸权的基础。从军事实力来看：美国是全球军费开支最高的国家，2021年军费开支达8000亿美元，明显高于其他国家。此外，据人民网报道，2014年美国在海外军事基地便高达598处，遍及六大洲、四大洋，辐射全球40个国家。强大的军事实力是美元霸权的重要保障。超高的美债将全球主要的经济体捆绑在一起，进一步加强美元的地位。截至目前美债总额已上升至31.15万亿美元，甚至超过了美国的GDP总额。其中，中日欧是美债的重要持有方，截至7月末，合计持有3.55万亿。所以，整体来看，虽然美国利用美元霸权收割全球的行径令人作呕，但仍然不得不承认，目前仍然是全球最主要的结算货币，美元霸权的基础尚没有动摇。6、逆美元化势在必行天下苦美元久矣！逆美元化可能将成为未来国际市场的共识：从历史来看，货币的霸权并非不可颠覆——众所周知，第一次工业革命后，英国成为了全球最强大的国家，号称“日不落帝国”，当时英国对全球经济的掌控较目前的美国有过之而无不及——通过殖民统治控制了全球20%以上的人口以及25%以上的土地，经济体量占全球的70%以上，黄金储备量占全球的80%以上。但在二战后，随着英国国力的衰弱以及美国的崛起，美元才取代英镑成为全球主要的结算货币。从当前情况来看，全球各主要国家均在开始减持美元，据IMF统计，截至2022Q2，全球官方美元储备为66523亿美元，较其高点（2021Q3）下降了4402亿美元。是据统计以来，各国政府减持美元力度最大的一次，反映“去美元化”已经逐步成为国际市场的共识。美国继续收割全球的美梦，或许该醒醒了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9917350197,"gmtCreate":1665445597719,"gmtModify":1676537606117,"author":{"id":"3580721934889206","authorId":"3580721934889206","name":"JaniceZhu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af488b5cafb7800a5651f7df4b054547","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580721934889206","authorIdStr":"3580721934889206"},"htmlText":"但佈雷頓森林體系崩潰後，美元選擇與原油掛鉤，由於原油並不具備黃金的稀缺性，所以美國可以依仗其國家信用，近乎無限制的超發貨幣（這也是美國開始耍賴的根基）。所以，佈雷頓森林體系的崩潰是美元霸權的起點，若是佈雷頓森林體系不崩潰，那麼美國只能乖乖的按照其黃金儲備量來發行貨幣。但隨着佈雷頓森林體系崩潰，美元的支撐只有一個儲量極高的原油以及美國的信用（可惜美國沒有）。","listText":"但佈雷頓森林體系崩潰後，美元選擇與原油掛鉤，由於原油並不具備黃金的稀缺性，所以美國可以依仗其國家信用，近乎無限制的超發貨幣（這也是美國開始耍賴的根基）。所以，佈雷頓森林體系的崩潰是美元霸權的起點，若是佈雷頓森林體系不崩潰，那麼美國只能乖乖的按照其黃金儲備量來發行貨幣。但隨着佈雷頓森林體系崩潰，美元的支撐只有一個儲量極高的原油以及美國的信用（可惜美國沒有）。","text":"但佈雷頓森林體系崩潰後，美元選擇與原油掛鉤，由於原油並不具備黃金的稀缺性，所以美國可以依仗其國家信用，近乎無限制的超發貨幣（這也是美國開始耍賴的根基）。所以，佈雷頓森林體系的崩潰是美元霸權的起點，若是佈雷頓森林體系不崩潰，那麼美國只能乖乖的按照其黃金儲備量來發行貨幣。但隨着佈雷頓森林體系崩潰，美元的支撐只有一個儲量極高的原油以及美國的信用（可惜美國沒有）。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":21,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917350197","repostId":1165840458,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165840458","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665398618,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165840458?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-10 18:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"No martial ethics! How does the US dollar harvest the world's three rounds?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165840458","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美国直接掀了桌子，一边拿储量极其丰富的石油做基准，一边拿着枪炮让全球去相信美国的信誉。此后，美元霸权收割全球的篇章正式打开。经历过两轮收割后，如今镰刀再起，美元可能又要收割全球第","content":"<html><head></head><body>After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States directly flipped the table, using its extremely rich oil reserves as a benchmark, and at the same time using guns to make the world believe in America's credibility. Since then, the chapter of US dollar hegemony harvesting the world has officially opened.After two rounds of harvesting, now that the sickle is rising again, the US dollar may have to harvest the third round of the world.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2f2e44e9342a02dce61d7a45fd84d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>1、No martial ethics! The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of dollar hegemonyIn 1944, the United States established the \"Bretton Woods System\" and established the gold standard system of the US dollar. The US dollar was also called \"US dollar\" since then.However, after the defeat of the Vietnam War, the US gold reserves declined rapidly, and it was difficult to convert the US dollar to the originally prescribed amount of gold, which led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system after 1971.So,Why is the collapse of the Bretton Woods system the starting point of dollar hegemony?Because before that, the gold reserve was the basis for the issuance of money by a country's central bank, and paper money was not supported by national credit, but by gold. That is to say, at that time, the US dollar was just an \"exchange voucher\" for gold.However, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar chose to be pegged to crude oil. Because crude oil is not as scarce as gold, the United States can rely on its national credit to issue almost unlimited excess currency (this is also the foundation for the United States to cheat).So,The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of the dollar hegemony. If the Bretton Woods system does not collapse, then the United States can only obediently issue currency according to its gold reserves. But with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar was only supported by an extremely high reserve of crude oil and American credit (which the United States unfortunately did not have).For the global market, because the US dollar has ultra-high liquidity in the international market (accounting for about 85% of global foreign exchange transactions), the United States can harvest the world through a series of monetary means such as rate hike-interest rate cut.2、The first round of harvest-excessive currency issuance, causing global asset prices to riseAfter the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the United States opened an unlimited amount of quantitative easing Policy (QE).Up to now, the stock of M2 in the United States has increased by 6.22 trillion USD (about 44 trillion RMB) compared with the beginning of 2020.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdaf7c3b4de3e2f6c957f665b7884491\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Under the \"flood\", global asset prices began to rise sharply-First, in terms of commodity prices, in May 2022, the CRB Commodity Index peaked at 644.04 points, and the lower point (April 2020) was up 296.52 points, or a whopping 85.31%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52bb945f1dcc2fd6f0ea82e6e40e1b5a\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Secondly, from the perspective of house prices, according to OECD statistics, during the epidemic period (9 quarters), the real house price index of OECD member countries increased by 18.8 points in total, with an average quarterly increase of 2.01 points, while between the end of 2015 and 2019 (20 quarters), the house price index only increased by 15.6 points, with an average quarterly increase of only 0.78 points.That is to say, the average quarterly growth of house prices has more than doubled, and in the past two years or so, house prices have risen more than in the past five years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cbc30467442689c009212d27085a85b\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Finally, from a financial market perspective, using the S&P index as the benchmark, at the end of 2021, the S&P peaked at 4796.56 points, an increase of 114.38% from its low. That said, the U.S. stock market nearly doubled last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9e44b114a7d6592f8a051044ec7e3a\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>So why is it that the United States was the biggest beneficiary of last year's asset price surge?In the past few decades of operation, the United States, through coercion(Provoking many wars in the Middle East) Lure (Using the Marshall Plan to tie up Europe, etc.)A large number of high-quality assets have been harvested worldwide. Under the background of sharp rise in asset prices, American capital has naturally expanded obviously.Take the 2021 Forbes list as an example. In 2021, the assets of the top richest people in the United States began to expand significantly, and most of the total assets showed double-digit growth.This is also the first round of harvesting global high-quality assets by the United States.3、The second round of harvesting-tightening the currency, strengthening the purchasing power of the US dollar and gaining the advantage of foreign exchange settlementAfter March 2022, the Federal Reserve started the \"crazy\" rate hike process, and up to now, it has accumulated a rate hike of 300BP.Under the crazy rate hike in the United States, the US Dollar Index has seen a sharp rise.Not long ago, the US Dollar Index crossed the 114-point mark, up 27.67% from its low.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5159854d5a26af759e719b4b4eadf25\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Why is the sharp strength of the US Dollar Index the second round of the U.S. harvest of the world?The sharp appreciation of the US dollar will lead to the need for other countries to exchange more assets (currencies) when the United States exports goods, and the United States can import high-quality resources overseas with less currency.In 2021, for example, the total amount of imported and exported goods in the United States amounted to $5.95 trillion, and the drastic change in the US Dollar Index will lead to the United States gaining approximately $1.64 trillion in exchange gains on foreign exchange settlement.4、The third round of harvesting- -cycle after cycle, the time for the United States to bargain for the bottom of the world is approachingAs we all know, after the world enters the rate hike cycle, the asset bubble will be popped, and because the monetary policy is mostly prognostic management, that is, there is a strong lag, soTighter monetary policy can lead to oversold asset pricesSo that its price performance is lower than its true real value to a certain extent.The United States, as the initiator of the global rate hike cycle, often has a strong influence on the rate hike cycle.Which means,Investors in the United States and the United States can find the most convenient opportunity to bargain-hunting global assets. With the high liquidity of the US dollar, the convenience of bargain-hunting assets in the United States is obviously stronger than that in other countries.Historically, the United States has \"harvested\" wool twice around the world through such rate hike-interest rate cuts:Latin America's lost decade— — In 1970, the Federal Reserve implemented a low interest rate policy to stimulate investment and employment, which led to the depreciation of the US dollar and high inflationary pressure (the Great Stagflation Period). Some Latin American countries took the opportunity to borrow large amounts of low-interest dollars to invest in oil development, resulting in the expanding scale of their foreign debt.In 1980, the Federal Reserve suddenly started the rate hike cycle (Volcker era), the dollar appreciated, the oil price fell, and Latin American countries suddenly fell into the trap of the dollar. In August, 1982, Mexico took the lead in the debt crisis, and then a large number of Latin American countries encountered difficulties in repaying their debts one after another. Therefore, the 1980s was called the \"lost decade\" in Latin America.Southeast Asian financial crisis— — In 1990, the economy of Southeast Asia prospered and developed. Under the manipulation of the Federal Reserve, a large amount of financing flowed into Southeast Asia, and many countries experienced economic overheating. Then, between 1994 and 1995, the Federal Reserve had seven consecutive rate hike over a 13-month period.A strong dollar returned a large amount of capital to the United States, which became a key factor in triggering the financial crisis in Southeast Asia from 1997 to 1998. Southeast Asian countries paid a painful price to recover from the turmoil after the Thai baht depreciated sharply in July 1997 and the shockwave spread quickly.5、The impact of the US dollar in the international market is still relatively largeFrom the perspective of the US dollar itself: all its indicators account for more than 40% of the global total, of which the proportion of foreign exchange transactions and foreign exchange reserves is as high as 85% and 61%.The high proportion of the US dollar in the financial market is the foundation of the hegemony of the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3527857b8cb0ffdec05aac5d76449640\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>From the perspective of economic situation: The United States is still the largest economy in the world. According to the World Bank data, the proportion of GDP of the United States in 2020 accounted for 24.72% of the world (China's 17.37%).Strong economic strength is the basis of dollar hegemony.In terms of military strength: The United States is the country with the highest military spending in the world, with military spending reaching $800 billion in 2021, significantly higher than other countries. In addition, according to People's Daily Online, in 2014, the United States had as many as 598 overseas military bases, covering six continents and four oceans, radiating 40 countries around the world.Strong military strength is an important guarantee for the hegemony of the dollar.The ultra-high US debt has tied together the world's major economies and further strengthened the position of the US dollar.Up to now, the total U.S. debt has risen to 31.15 trillion dollars, even exceeding the total GDP of the United States.Among them, China, Japan and Europe are important holders of U.S. debt, holding a total of 3.55 trillion yuan as of the end of July.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08dc1bac97cefa2a40837dc7a03bc229\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Therefore, as a whole, while the United States' use of dollar hegemony to harvest the world is disgusting, it still has to be admitted,At present, it is still the most important settlement currency in the world, and the foundation of US dollar hegemony has not been shaken.6、Anti-dollarization is imperativeThe world has been bitter for a long time! Anti-dollarization may become the consensus of the international market in the future:Historically, the hegemony of money is not irsubversible-as we all know, after the first industrial revolution, Britain became the most powerful country in the world, known as the \"empire where the sun never sets\". At that time, Britain's control over the global economy was even worse than that of the current United States-it controlled more than 20% of the world's population and more than 25% of the world's land through colonial rule, accounting for more than 70% of the world's economy and more than 80% of the world's gold reserves.However, after World War II, with the weakening of Britain's national power and the rise of the United States, the US dollar replaced the British pound as the main settlement currency in the world.From the current situation,Major countries around the world are starting to reduce their holdings of the US dollar, according to the IMF, official global dollar reserves stood at $6,652.3 billion as of 2022Q2, down $440.2 billion from its high (2021Q3). According to statistics, governments of all countries have made the greatest effort to reduce their holdings of US dollars, reflecting that \"de-dollarization\" has gradually become the consensus of the international market.It may be time for the United States to wake up from the dream of continuing to harvest the world.</body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>No martial ethics! How does the US dollar harvest the world's three rounds?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNo martial ethics! How does the US dollar harvest the world's three rounds?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2022-10-10 18:43\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States directly flipped the table, using its extremely rich oil reserves as a benchmark, and at the same time using guns to make the world believe in America's credibility. Since then, the chapter of US dollar hegemony harvesting the world has officially opened.After two rounds of harvesting, now that the sickle is rising again, the US dollar may have to harvest the third round of the world.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2f2e44e9342a02dce61d7a45fd84d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>1、No martial ethics! The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of dollar hegemonyIn 1944, the United States established the \"Bretton Woods System\" and established the gold standard system of the US dollar. The US dollar was also called \"US dollar\" since then.However, after the defeat of the Vietnam War, the US gold reserves declined rapidly, and it was difficult to convert the US dollar to the originally prescribed amount of gold, which led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system after 1971.So,Why is the collapse of the Bretton Woods system the starting point of dollar hegemony?Because before that, the gold reserve was the basis for the issuance of money by a country's central bank, and paper money was not supported by national credit, but by gold. That is to say, at that time, the US dollar was just an \"exchange voucher\" for gold.However, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar chose to be pegged to crude oil. Because crude oil is not as scarce as gold, the United States can rely on its national credit to issue almost unlimited excess currency (this is also the foundation for the United States to cheat).So,The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of the dollar hegemony. If the Bretton Woods system does not collapse, then the United States can only obediently issue currency according to its gold reserves. But with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar was only supported by an extremely high reserve of crude oil and American credit (which the United States unfortunately did not have).For the global market, because the US dollar has ultra-high liquidity in the international market (accounting for about 85% of global foreign exchange transactions), the United States can harvest the world through a series of monetary means such as rate hike-interest rate cut.2、The first round of harvest-excessive currency issuance, causing global asset prices to riseAfter the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the United States opened an unlimited amount of quantitative easing Policy (QE).Up to now, the stock of M2 in the United States has increased by 6.22 trillion USD (about 44 trillion RMB) compared with the beginning of 2020.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdaf7c3b4de3e2f6c957f665b7884491\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Under the \"flood\", global asset prices began to rise sharply-First, in terms of commodity prices, in May 2022, the CRB Commodity Index peaked at 644.04 points, and the lower point (April 2020) was up 296.52 points, or a whopping 85.31%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52bb945f1dcc2fd6f0ea82e6e40e1b5a\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Secondly, from the perspective of house prices, according to OECD statistics, during the epidemic period (9 quarters), the real house price index of OECD member countries increased by 18.8 points in total, with an average quarterly increase of 2.01 points, while between the end of 2015 and 2019 (20 quarters), the house price index only increased by 15.6 points, with an average quarterly increase of only 0.78 points.That is to say, the average quarterly growth of house prices has more than doubled, and in the past two years or so, house prices have risen more than in the past five years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cbc30467442689c009212d27085a85b\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Finally, from a financial market perspective, using the S&P index as the benchmark, at the end of 2021, the S&P peaked at 4796.56 points, an increase of 114.38% from its low. That said, the U.S. stock market nearly doubled last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9e44b114a7d6592f8a051044ec7e3a\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>So why is it that the United States was the biggest beneficiary of last year's asset price surge?In the past few decades of operation, the United States, through coercion(Provoking many wars in the Middle East) Lure (Using the Marshall Plan to tie up Europe, etc.)A large number of high-quality assets have been harvested worldwide. Under the background of sharp rise in asset prices, American capital has naturally expanded obviously.Take the 2021 Forbes list as an example. In 2021, the assets of the top richest people in the United States began to expand significantly, and most of the total assets showed double-digit growth.This is also the first round of harvesting global high-quality assets by the United States.3、The second round of harvesting-tightening the currency, strengthening the purchasing power of the US dollar and gaining the advantage of foreign exchange settlementAfter March 2022, the Federal Reserve started the \"crazy\" rate hike process, and up to now, it has accumulated a rate hike of 300BP.Under the crazy rate hike in the United States, the US Dollar Index has seen a sharp rise.Not long ago, the US Dollar Index crossed the 114-point mark, up 27.67% from its low.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5159854d5a26af759e719b4b4eadf25\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Why is the sharp strength of the US Dollar Index the second round of the U.S. harvest of the world?The sharp appreciation of the US dollar will lead to the need for other countries to exchange more assets (currencies) when the United States exports goods, and the United States can import high-quality resources overseas with less currency.In 2021, for example, the total amount of imported and exported goods in the United States amounted to $5.95 trillion, and the drastic change in the US Dollar Index will lead to the United States gaining approximately $1.64 trillion in exchange gains on foreign exchange settlement.4、The third round of harvesting- -cycle after cycle, the time for the United States to bargain for the bottom of the world is approachingAs we all know, after the world enters the rate hike cycle, the asset bubble will be popped, and because the monetary policy is mostly prognostic management, that is, there is a strong lag, soTighter monetary policy can lead to oversold asset pricesSo that its price performance is lower than its true real value to a certain extent.The United States, as the initiator of the global rate hike cycle, often has a strong influence on the rate hike cycle.Which means,Investors in the United States and the United States can find the most convenient opportunity to bargain-hunting global assets. With the high liquidity of the US dollar, the convenience of bargain-hunting assets in the United States is obviously stronger than that in other countries.Historically, the United States has \"harvested\" wool twice around the world through such rate hike-interest rate cuts:Latin America's lost decade— — In 1970, the Federal Reserve implemented a low interest rate policy to stimulate investment and employment, which led to the depreciation of the US dollar and high inflationary pressure (the Great Stagflation Period). Some Latin American countries took the opportunity to borrow large amounts of low-interest dollars to invest in oil development, resulting in the expanding scale of their foreign debt.In 1980, the Federal Reserve suddenly started the rate hike cycle (Volcker era), the dollar appreciated, the oil price fell, and Latin American countries suddenly fell into the trap of the dollar. In August, 1982, Mexico took the lead in the debt crisis, and then a large number of Latin American countries encountered difficulties in repaying their debts one after another. Therefore, the 1980s was called the \"lost decade\" in Latin America.Southeast Asian financial crisis— — In 1990, the economy of Southeast Asia prospered and developed. Under the manipulation of the Federal Reserve, a large amount of financing flowed into Southeast Asia, and many countries experienced economic overheating. Then, between 1994 and 1995, the Federal Reserve had seven consecutive rate hike over a 13-month period.A strong dollar returned a large amount of capital to the United States, which became a key factor in triggering the financial crisis in Southeast Asia from 1997 to 1998. Southeast Asian countries paid a painful price to recover from the turmoil after the Thai baht depreciated sharply in July 1997 and the shockwave spread quickly.5、The impact of the US dollar in the international market is still relatively largeFrom the perspective of the US dollar itself: all its indicators account for more than 40% of the global total, of which the proportion of foreign exchange transactions and foreign exchange reserves is as high as 85% and 61%.The high proportion of the US dollar in the financial market is the foundation of the hegemony of the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3527857b8cb0ffdec05aac5d76449640\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>From the perspective of economic situation: The United States is still the largest economy in the world. According to the World Bank data, the proportion of GDP of the United States in 2020 accounted for 24.72% of the world (China's 17.37%).Strong economic strength is the basis of dollar hegemony.In terms of military strength: The United States is the country with the highest military spending in the world, with military spending reaching $800 billion in 2021, significantly higher than other countries. In addition, according to People's Daily Online, in 2014, the United States had as many as 598 overseas military bases, covering six continents and four oceans, radiating 40 countries around the world.Strong military strength is an important guarantee for the hegemony of the dollar.The ultra-high US debt has tied together the world's major economies and further strengthened the position of the US dollar.Up to now, the total U.S. debt has risen to 31.15 trillion dollars, even exceeding the total GDP of the United States.Among them, China, Japan and Europe are important holders of U.S. debt, holding a total of 3.55 trillion yuan as of the end of July.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08dc1bac97cefa2a40837dc7a03bc229\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Therefore, as a whole, while the United States' use of dollar hegemony to harvest the world is disgusting, it still has to be admitted,At present, it is still the most important settlement currency in the world, and the foundation of US dollar hegemony has not been shaken.6、Anti-dollarization is imperativeThe world has been bitter for a long time! Anti-dollarization may become the consensus of the international market in the future:Historically, the hegemony of money is not irsubversible-as we all know, after the first industrial revolution, Britain became the most powerful country in the world, known as the \"empire where the sun never sets\". At that time, Britain's control over the global economy was even worse than that of the current United States-it controlled more than 20% of the world's population and more than 25% of the world's land through colonial rule, accounting for more than 70% of the world's economy and more than 80% of the world's gold reserves.However, after World War II, with the weakening of Britain's national power and the rise of the United States, the US dollar replaced the British pound as the main settlement currency in the world.From the current situation,Major countries around the world are starting to reduce their holdings of the US dollar, according to the IMF, official global dollar reserves stood at $6,652.3 billion as of 2022Q2, down $440.2 billion from its high (2021Q3). According to statistics, governments of all countries have made the greatest effort to reduce their holdings of US dollars, reflecting that \"de-dollarization\" has gradually become the consensus of the international market.It may be time for the United States to wake up from the dream of continuing to harvest the world.</body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xTVot4dfhnhbGofF9DYYJw\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d21e136ce4e27586f0bca6b38743d02a","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xTVot4dfhnhbGofF9DYYJw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165840458","content_text":"布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美国直接掀了桌子，一边拿储量极其丰富的石油做基准，一边拿着枪炮让全球去相信美国的信誉。此后，美元霸权收割全球的篇章正式打开。经历过两轮收割后，如今镰刀再起，美元可能又要收割全球第三轮。1、不讲武德！布雷顿森林体系崩溃是美元霸权的起点1944年美国确立了“布雷顿森林体系”，建立了美元的金本位制度，美元也在此后被称为“美金”。但在越战失败后，美国黄金储备量迅速下降，美元难以兑换到原本规定的黄金量，导致1971年后，布雷顿森林体系宣布崩溃。那么，为什么说布雷顿森林体系崩溃是美元霸权的起点呢？因为在此之前，黄金储备量是一国央行发行货币基础，纸币并非由国家信用来支撑，而是由黄金来作为基础。也就是说，当时美元只是黄金的“兑换券”。但布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美元选择与原油挂钩，由于原油并不具备黄金的稀缺性，所以美国可以依仗其国家信用，近乎无限制的超发货币（这也是美国开始耍赖的根基）。所以，布雷顿森林体系的崩溃是美元霸权的起点，若是布雷顿森林体系不崩溃，那么美国只能乖乖的按照其黄金储备量来发行货币。但随着布雷顿森林体系崩溃，美元的支撑只有一个储量极高的原油以及美国的信用（可惜美国没有）。对于全球市场来说，由于美元在国际市场上具有超高的流动性（占全球外汇交易的85%左右），所以美国可以通过加息-降息等一系列货币手段来收割全球。2、第一轮收割——超发货币，导致全球资产价格上涨2020年新冠疫情爆发后，美国开启了无限量的量化宽松政策（QE）。截至目前，美国的M2存量较2020年初上升了6.22万亿美元（约44万亿人民币）。“大水漫灌”下，全球资产价格开始大幅上涨——首先，从大宗商品价格来看，2022年5月，CRB商品指数触顶达到644.04点，较低点（2020年4月）上涨了296.52点，涨幅高达85.31%。其次，从房价来看，据OECD统计，疫情期间（9个季度），经合组织成员国实际房价指数共计上涨了18.8个点，季均上涨了2.01个点，而2015-2019年底间（20个季度），房价指数也只上涨了15.6个点，季均仅上涨0.78个点。也就是说，房价的季均增长翻了一倍以上，且近两年多来，房价的涨幅比过去5年还多。最后，从金融市场来看，以标普指数为基准，2021年底，标普触顶达到4796.56点，较低点增长了114.38%。也就是说，去年美国的股市接近翻了一番。那么，为什么说这是美国是去年资产价格大涨的最大受益者呢？在过去几十年的经营下，美国通过威逼（在中东挑起多次战争）利诱（利用马歇尔计划捆绑欧洲等）在全球收割了大量的优质资产。而在资产价格大幅上涨的背景下，美国资本自然得到了极为明显的扩张。以2021年的福布斯排行榜为例，2021年美国顶尖富豪的资产开始大幅的扩张，资产总量大多出现了两位数的增长。这，也是美国对全球优质资产的第一轮收割。3、第二轮收割——收紧货币，加强美元购买力，获得结汇优势2022年3月后，美联储开启“疯狂”的加息进程，截至目前已经累计加息了300BP。在美国疯狂的加息下，美元指数出现大幅的上涨。前不久，美元指数突破114点大关，较其低点上涨了27.67%。为什么说美元指数的大幅走强是美国收割全球的第二轮呢？美元的大幅升值将导致美国出口商品时，其他国家需要用更多的资产（货币）来兑换，且美国可以通过更少的货币去进口海外的优质资源。以2021年为例，美国进出口商品总额高达5.95万亿美元，美元指数的大幅变动将导致美国在结汇上获取大约1.64万亿美元的汇兑收益。4、第三轮收割——周而复始，美国抄底全球的时机逼近众所周知，全球进入加息周期后，资产的泡沫将被戳破，且由于货币政策大多是预后管理，即存在较强的滞后性，所以紧缩的货币政策会导致资产价格超跌，使得其价格表现在一定程度内低于其真实的实际价值。美国，作为全球加息周期的始作俑者，其对于加息周期的经常存在较强的影响力。这也就是说，美国以及美国的投资者能够最便捷的找到抄底全球资产的时机，叠加美元的高流动性下，美国抄底资产的便捷性也明显强于其他国家。在历史上，美国已经通过这样加息-降息的手段，已经在全球“薅”了两次羊毛：拉美失去的十年——1970年，美联储实行低利率政策刺激投资与就业，导致美元贬值，通胀压力高企（大滞胀时期）。部分拉美国家趁机借入大量低利息的美元，投资石油开发，导致其外债规模不断膨胀。1980年美联储突然开启加息周期（沃尔克时代），美元升值，石油价格下跌，拉美国家一下子掉进了美元的陷阱。1982年8月，墨西哥率先爆发债务危机，随后大量拉美国家相继遭遇还债困难，80年代也因此被称作拉美地区“失去的十年”。东南亚金融危机——1990年，东南亚地区经济繁荣发展，在美联储操纵下，大量融资流入东南亚，多国出现经济过热的现象。随后在1994到1995年间，美联储在13个月的时间里接连七次加息。强势美元使大量资本回流美国，成为触发1997到1998年东南亚金融危机的关键因素。1997年7月泰铢大幅贬值，随后冲击波很快蔓延开来，东南亚国家付出了惨痛的代价才从此次动荡中恢复过来。5、美元在国际市场上的影响仍较大从美元自身来看：其各项指标占全全球总量的比重均在40%以上，其中外汇交易以及外汇储备的比重更是高达85%和61%。美元在金融市场上的高占比，是美元霸权的根基。从经济情况来看：美国目前仍是全球第一大经济体，据世界银行数据，2020年美国GDP比重占全球的24.72%（中国为17.37%）。较强的经济实力，是美元霸权的基础。从军事实力来看：美国是全球军费开支最高的国家，2021年军费开支达8000亿美元，明显高于其他国家。此外，据人民网报道，2014年美国在海外军事基地便高达598处，遍及六大洲、四大洋，辐射全球40个国家。强大的军事实力是美元霸权的重要保障。超高的美债将全球主要的经济体捆绑在一起，进一步加强美元的地位。截至目前美债总额已上升至31.15万亿美元，甚至超过了美国的GDP总额。其中，中日欧是美债的重要持有方，截至7月末，合计持有3.55万亿。所以，整体来看，虽然美国利用美元霸权收割全球的行径令人作呕，但仍然不得不承认，目前仍然是全球最主要的结算货币，美元霸权的基础尚没有动摇。6、逆美元化势在必行天下苦美元久矣！逆美元化可能将成为未来国际市场的共识：从历史来看，货币的霸权并非不可颠覆——众所周知，第一次工业革命后，英国成为了全球最强大的国家，号称“日不落帝国”，当时英国对全球经济的掌控较目前的美国有过之而无不及——通过殖民统治控制了全球20%以上的人口以及25%以上的土地，经济体量占全球的70%以上，黄金储备量占全球的80%以上。但在二战后，随着英国国力的衰弱以及美国的崛起，美元才取代英镑成为全球主要的结算货币。从当前情况来看，全球各主要国家均在开始减持美元，据IMF统计，截至2022Q2，全球官方美元储备为66523亿美元，较其高点（2021Q3）下降了4402亿美元。是据统计以来，各国政府减持美元力度最大的一次，反映“去美元化”已经逐步成为国际市场的共识。美国继续收割全球的美梦，或许该醒醒了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104298139,"gmtCreate":1665446505786,"gmtModify":1665446509077,"authorId":3570622365838239,"author":{"id":3570622365838239,"idStr":"3570622365838239","authorId":3570622365838239,"name":"N30","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/696c28196abab3e26b9989616cdbc947","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary 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18:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"No martial ethics! How does the US dollar harvest the world's three rounds?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165840458","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美国直接掀了桌子，一边拿储量极其丰富的石油做基准，一边拿着枪炮让全球去相信美国的信誉。此后，美元霸权收割全球的篇章正式打开。经历过两轮收割后，如今镰刀再起，美元可能又要收割全球第","content":"<html><head></head><body>After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States directly flipped the table, using its extremely rich oil reserves as a benchmark, and at the same time using guns to make the world believe in America's credibility. Since then, the chapter of US dollar hegemony harvesting the world has officially opened.After two rounds of harvesting, now that the sickle is rising again, the US dollar may have to harvest the third round of the world.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2f2e44e9342a02dce61d7a45fd84d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>1、No martial ethics! The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of dollar hegemonyIn 1944, the United States established the \"Bretton Woods System\" and established the gold standard system of the US dollar. The US dollar was also called \"US dollar\" since then.However, after the defeat of the Vietnam War, the US gold reserves declined rapidly, and it was difficult to convert the US dollar to the originally prescribed amount of gold, which led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system after 1971.So,Why is the collapse of the Bretton Woods system the starting point of dollar hegemony?Because before that, the gold reserve was the basis for the issuance of money by a country's central bank, and paper money was not supported by national credit, but by gold. That is to say, at that time, the US dollar was just an \"exchange voucher\" for gold.However, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar chose to be pegged to crude oil. Because crude oil is not as scarce as gold, the United States can rely on its national credit to issue almost unlimited excess currency (this is also the foundation for the United States to cheat).So,The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of the dollar hegemony. If the Bretton Woods system does not collapse, then the United States can only obediently issue currency according to its gold reserves. But with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar was only supported by an extremely high reserve of crude oil and American credit (which the United States unfortunately did not have).For the global market, because the US dollar has ultra-high liquidity in the international market (accounting for about 85% of global foreign exchange transactions), the United States can harvest the world through a series of monetary means such as rate hike-interest rate cut.2、The first round of harvest-excessive currency issuance, causing global asset prices to riseAfter the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the United States opened an unlimited amount of quantitative easing Policy (QE).Up to now, the stock of M2 in the United States has increased by 6.22 trillion USD (about 44 trillion RMB) compared with the beginning of 2020.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdaf7c3b4de3e2f6c957f665b7884491\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Under the \"flood\", global asset prices began to rise sharply-First, in terms of commodity prices, in May 2022, the CRB Commodity Index peaked at 644.04 points, and the lower point (April 2020) was up 296.52 points, or a whopping 85.31%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52bb945f1dcc2fd6f0ea82e6e40e1b5a\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Secondly, from the perspective of house prices, according to OECD statistics, during the epidemic period (9 quarters), the real house price index of OECD member countries increased by 18.8 points in total, with an average quarterly increase of 2.01 points, while between the end of 2015 and 2019 (20 quarters), the house price index only increased by 15.6 points, with an average quarterly increase of only 0.78 points.That is to say, the average quarterly growth of house prices has more than doubled, and in the past two years or so, house prices have risen more than in the past five years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cbc30467442689c009212d27085a85b\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Finally, from a financial market perspective, using the S&P index as the benchmark, at the end of 2021, the S&P peaked at 4796.56 points, an increase of 114.38% from its low. That said, the U.S. stock market nearly doubled last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9e44b114a7d6592f8a051044ec7e3a\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>So why is it that the United States was the biggest beneficiary of last year's asset price surge?In the past few decades of operation, the United States, through coercion(Provoking many wars in the Middle East) Lure (Using the Marshall Plan to tie up Europe, etc.)A large number of high-quality assets have been harvested worldwide. Under the background of sharp rise in asset prices, American capital has naturally expanded obviously.Take the 2021 Forbes list as an example. In 2021, the assets of the top richest people in the United States began to expand significantly, and most of the total assets showed double-digit growth.This is also the first round of harvesting global high-quality assets by the United States.3、The second round of harvesting-tightening the currency, strengthening the purchasing power of the US dollar and gaining the advantage of foreign exchange settlementAfter March 2022, the Federal Reserve started the \"crazy\" rate hike process, and up to now, it has accumulated a rate hike of 300BP.Under the crazy rate hike in the United States, the US Dollar Index has seen a sharp rise.Not long ago, the US Dollar Index crossed the 114-point mark, up 27.67% from its low.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5159854d5a26af759e719b4b4eadf25\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Why is the sharp strength of the US Dollar Index the second round of the U.S. harvest of the world?The sharp appreciation of the US dollar will lead to the need for other countries to exchange more assets (currencies) when the United States exports goods, and the United States can import high-quality resources overseas with less currency.In 2021, for example, the total amount of imported and exported goods in the United States amounted to $5.95 trillion, and the drastic change in the US Dollar Index will lead to the United States gaining approximately $1.64 trillion in exchange gains on foreign exchange settlement.4、The third round of harvesting- -cycle after cycle, the time for the United States to bargain for the bottom of the world is approachingAs we all know, after the world enters the rate hike cycle, the asset bubble will be popped, and because the monetary policy is mostly prognostic management, that is, there is a strong lag, soTighter monetary policy can lead to oversold asset pricesSo that its price performance is lower than its true real value to a certain extent.The United States, as the initiator of the global rate hike cycle, often has a strong influence on the rate hike cycle.Which means,Investors in the United States and the United States can find the most convenient opportunity to bargain-hunting global assets. With the high liquidity of the US dollar, the convenience of bargain-hunting assets in the United States is obviously stronger than that in other countries.Historically, the United States has \"harvested\" wool twice around the world through such rate hike-interest rate cuts:Latin America's lost decade— — In 1970, the Federal Reserve implemented a low interest rate policy to stimulate investment and employment, which led to the depreciation of the US dollar and high inflationary pressure (the Great Stagflation Period). Some Latin American countries took the opportunity to borrow large amounts of low-interest dollars to invest in oil development, resulting in the expanding scale of their foreign debt.In 1980, the Federal Reserve suddenly started the rate hike cycle (Volcker era), the dollar appreciated, the oil price fell, and Latin American countries suddenly fell into the trap of the dollar. In August, 1982, Mexico took the lead in the debt crisis, and then a large number of Latin American countries encountered difficulties in repaying their debts one after another. Therefore, the 1980s was called the \"lost decade\" in Latin America.Southeast Asian financial crisis— — In 1990, the economy of Southeast Asia prospered and developed. Under the manipulation of the Federal Reserve, a large amount of financing flowed into Southeast Asia, and many countries experienced economic overheating. Then, between 1994 and 1995, the Federal Reserve had seven consecutive rate hike over a 13-month period.A strong dollar returned a large amount of capital to the United States, which became a key factor in triggering the financial crisis in Southeast Asia from 1997 to 1998. Southeast Asian countries paid a painful price to recover from the turmoil after the Thai baht depreciated sharply in July 1997 and the shockwave spread quickly.5、The impact of the US dollar in the international market is still relatively largeFrom the perspective of the US dollar itself: all its indicators account for more than 40% of the global total, of which the proportion of foreign exchange transactions and foreign exchange reserves is as high as 85% and 61%.The high proportion of the US dollar in the financial market is the foundation of the hegemony of the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3527857b8cb0ffdec05aac5d76449640\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>From the perspective of economic situation: The United States is still the largest economy in the world. According to the World Bank data, the proportion of GDP of the United States in 2020 accounted for 24.72% of the world (China's 17.37%).Strong economic strength is the basis of dollar hegemony.In terms of military strength: The United States is the country with the highest military spending in the world, with military spending reaching $800 billion in 2021, significantly higher than other countries. In addition, according to People's Daily Online, in 2014, the United States had as many as 598 overseas military bases, covering six continents and four oceans, radiating 40 countries around the world.Strong military strength is an important guarantee for the hegemony of the dollar.The ultra-high US debt has tied together the world's major economies and further strengthened the position of the US dollar.Up to now, the total U.S. debt has risen to 31.15 trillion dollars, even exceeding the total GDP of the United States.Among them, China, Japan and Europe are important holders of U.S. debt, holding a total of 3.55 trillion yuan as of the end of July.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08dc1bac97cefa2a40837dc7a03bc229\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Therefore, as a whole, while the United States' use of dollar hegemony to harvest the world is disgusting, it still has to be admitted,At present, it is still the most important settlement currency in the world, and the foundation of US dollar hegemony has not been shaken.6、Anti-dollarization is imperativeThe world has been bitter for a long time! Anti-dollarization may become the consensus of the international market in the future:Historically, the hegemony of money is not irsubversible-as we all know, after the first industrial revolution, Britain became the most powerful country in the world, known as the \"empire where the sun never sets\". At that time, Britain's control over the global economy was even worse than that of the current United States-it controlled more than 20% of the world's population and more than 25% of the world's land through colonial rule, accounting for more than 70% of the world's economy and more than 80% of the world's gold reserves.However, after World War II, with the weakening of Britain's national power and the rise of the United States, the US dollar replaced the British pound as the main settlement currency in the world.From the current situation,Major countries around the world are starting to reduce their holdings of the US dollar, according to the IMF, official global dollar reserves stood at $6,652.3 billion as of 2022Q2, down $440.2 billion from its high (2021Q3). According to statistics, governments of all countries have made the greatest effort to reduce their holdings of US dollars, reflecting that \"de-dollarization\" has gradually become the consensus of the international market.It may be time for the United States to wake up from the dream of continuing to harvest the world.</body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>No martial ethics! How does the US dollar harvest the world's three rounds?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNo martial ethics! How does the US dollar harvest the world's three rounds?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2022-10-10 18:43\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States directly flipped the table, using its extremely rich oil reserves as a benchmark, and at the same time using guns to make the world believe in America's credibility. Since then, the chapter of US dollar hegemony harvesting the world has officially opened.After two rounds of harvesting, now that the sickle is rising again, the US dollar may have to harvest the third round of the world.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2f2e44e9342a02dce61d7a45fd84d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>1、No martial ethics! The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of dollar hegemonyIn 1944, the United States established the \"Bretton Woods System\" and established the gold standard system of the US dollar. The US dollar was also called \"US dollar\" since then.However, after the defeat of the Vietnam War, the US gold reserves declined rapidly, and it was difficult to convert the US dollar to the originally prescribed amount of gold, which led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system after 1971.So,Why is the collapse of the Bretton Woods system the starting point of dollar hegemony?Because before that, the gold reserve was the basis for the issuance of money by a country's central bank, and paper money was not supported by national credit, but by gold. That is to say, at that time, the US dollar was just an \"exchange voucher\" for gold.However, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar chose to be pegged to crude oil. Because crude oil is not as scarce as gold, the United States can rely on its national credit to issue almost unlimited excess currency (this is also the foundation for the United States to cheat).So,The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of the dollar hegemony. If the Bretton Woods system does not collapse, then the United States can only obediently issue currency according to its gold reserves. But with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar was only supported by an extremely high reserve of crude oil and American credit (which the United States unfortunately did not have).For the global market, because the US dollar has ultra-high liquidity in the international market (accounting for about 85% of global foreign exchange transactions), the United States can harvest the world through a series of monetary means such as rate hike-interest rate cut.2、The first round of harvest-excessive currency issuance, causing global asset prices to riseAfter the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the United States opened an unlimited amount of quantitative easing Policy (QE).Up to now, the stock of M2 in the United States has increased by 6.22 trillion USD (about 44 trillion RMB) compared with the beginning of 2020.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdaf7c3b4de3e2f6c957f665b7884491\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Under the \"flood\", global asset prices began to rise sharply-First, in terms of commodity prices, in May 2022, the CRB Commodity Index peaked at 644.04 points, and the lower point (April 2020) was up 296.52 points, or a whopping 85.31%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52bb945f1dcc2fd6f0ea82e6e40e1b5a\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Secondly, from the perspective of house prices, according to OECD statistics, during the epidemic period (9 quarters), the real house price index of OECD member countries increased by 18.8 points in total, with an average quarterly increase of 2.01 points, while between the end of 2015 and 2019 (20 quarters), the house price index only increased by 15.6 points, with an average quarterly increase of only 0.78 points.That is to say, the average quarterly growth of house prices has more than doubled, and in the past two years or so, house prices have risen more than in the past five years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cbc30467442689c009212d27085a85b\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Finally, from a financial market perspective, using the S&P index as the benchmark, at the end of 2021, the S&P peaked at 4796.56 points, an increase of 114.38% from its low. That said, the U.S. stock market nearly doubled last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9e44b114a7d6592f8a051044ec7e3a\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>So why is it that the United States was the biggest beneficiary of last year's asset price surge?In the past few decades of operation, the United States, through coercion(Provoking many wars in the Middle East) Lure (Using the Marshall Plan to tie up Europe, etc.)A large number of high-quality assets have been harvested worldwide. Under the background of sharp rise in asset prices, American capital has naturally expanded obviously.Take the 2021 Forbes list as an example. In 2021, the assets of the top richest people in the United States began to expand significantly, and most of the total assets showed double-digit growth.This is also the first round of harvesting global high-quality assets by the United States.3、The second round of harvesting-tightening the currency, strengthening the purchasing power of the US dollar and gaining the advantage of foreign exchange settlementAfter March 2022, the Federal Reserve started the \"crazy\" rate hike process, and up to now, it has accumulated a rate hike of 300BP.Under the crazy rate hike in the United States, the US Dollar Index has seen a sharp rise.Not long ago, the US Dollar Index crossed the 114-point mark, up 27.67% from its low.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5159854d5a26af759e719b4b4eadf25\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Why is the sharp strength of the US Dollar Index the second round of the U.S. harvest of the world?The sharp appreciation of the US dollar will lead to the need for other countries to exchange more assets (currencies) when the United States exports goods, and the United States can import high-quality resources overseas with less currency.In 2021, for example, the total amount of imported and exported goods in the United States amounted to $5.95 trillion, and the drastic change in the US Dollar Index will lead to the United States gaining approximately $1.64 trillion in exchange gains on foreign exchange settlement.4、The third round of harvesting- -cycle after cycle, the time for the United States to bargain for the bottom of the world is approachingAs we all know, after the world enters the rate hike cycle, the asset bubble will be popped, and because the monetary policy is mostly prognostic management, that is, there is a strong lag, soTighter monetary policy can lead to oversold asset pricesSo that its price performance is lower than its true real value to a certain extent.The United States, as the initiator of the global rate hike cycle, often has a strong influence on the rate hike cycle.Which means,Investors in the United States and the United States can find the most convenient opportunity to bargain-hunting global assets. With the high liquidity of the US dollar, the convenience of bargain-hunting assets in the United States is obviously stronger than that in other countries.Historically, the United States has \"harvested\" wool twice around the world through such rate hike-interest rate cuts:Latin America's lost decade— — In 1970, the Federal Reserve implemented a low interest rate policy to stimulate investment and employment, which led to the depreciation of the US dollar and high inflationary pressure (the Great Stagflation Period). Some Latin American countries took the opportunity to borrow large amounts of low-interest dollars to invest in oil development, resulting in the expanding scale of their foreign debt.In 1980, the Federal Reserve suddenly started the rate hike cycle (Volcker era), the dollar appreciated, the oil price fell, and Latin American countries suddenly fell into the trap of the dollar. In August, 1982, Mexico took the lead in the debt crisis, and then a large number of Latin American countries encountered difficulties in repaying their debts one after another. Therefore, the 1980s was called the \"lost decade\" in Latin America.Southeast Asian financial crisis— — In 1990, the economy of Southeast Asia prospered and developed. Under the manipulation of the Federal Reserve, a large amount of financing flowed into Southeast Asia, and many countries experienced economic overheating. Then, between 1994 and 1995, the Federal Reserve had seven consecutive rate hike over a 13-month period.A strong dollar returned a large amount of capital to the United States, which became a key factor in triggering the financial crisis in Southeast Asia from 1997 to 1998. Southeast Asian countries paid a painful price to recover from the turmoil after the Thai baht depreciated sharply in July 1997 and the shockwave spread quickly.5、The impact of the US dollar in the international market is still relatively largeFrom the perspective of the US dollar itself: all its indicators account for more than 40% of the global total, of which the proportion of foreign exchange transactions and foreign exchange reserves is as high as 85% and 61%.The high proportion of the US dollar in the financial market is the foundation of the hegemony of the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3527857b8cb0ffdec05aac5d76449640\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>From the perspective of economic situation: The United States is still the largest economy in the world. According to the World Bank data, the proportion of GDP of the United States in 2020 accounted for 24.72% of the world (China's 17.37%).Strong economic strength is the basis of dollar hegemony.In terms of military strength: The United States is the country with the highest military spending in the world, with military spending reaching $800 billion in 2021, significantly higher than other countries. In addition, according to People's Daily Online, in 2014, the United States had as many as 598 overseas military bases, covering six continents and four oceans, radiating 40 countries around the world.Strong military strength is an important guarantee for the hegemony of the dollar.The ultra-high US debt has tied together the world's major economies and further strengthened the position of the US dollar.Up to now, the total U.S. debt has risen to 31.15 trillion dollars, even exceeding the total GDP of the United States.Among them, China, Japan and Europe are important holders of U.S. debt, holding a total of 3.55 trillion yuan as of the end of July.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08dc1bac97cefa2a40837dc7a03bc229\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Therefore, as a whole, while the United States' use of dollar hegemony to harvest the world is disgusting, it still has to be admitted,At present, it is still the most important settlement currency in the world, and the foundation of US dollar hegemony has not been shaken.6、Anti-dollarization is imperativeThe world has been bitter for a long time! Anti-dollarization may become the consensus of the international market in the future:Historically, the hegemony of money is not irsubversible-as we all know, after the first industrial revolution, Britain became the most powerful country in the world, known as the \"empire where the sun never sets\". At that time, Britain's control over the global economy was even worse than that of the current United States-it controlled more than 20% of the world's population and more than 25% of the world's land through colonial rule, accounting for more than 70% of the world's economy and more than 80% of the world's gold reserves.However, after World War II, with the weakening of Britain's national power and the rise of the United States, the US dollar replaced the British pound as the main settlement currency in the world.From the current situation,Major countries around the world are starting to reduce their holdings of the US dollar, according to the IMF, official global dollar reserves stood at $6,652.3 billion as of 2022Q2, down $440.2 billion from its high (2021Q3). According to statistics, governments of all countries have made the greatest effort to reduce their holdings of US dollars, reflecting that \"de-dollarization\" has gradually become the consensus of the international market.It may be time for the United States to wake up from the dream of continuing to harvest the world.</body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xTVot4dfhnhbGofF9DYYJw\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d21e136ce4e27586f0bca6b38743d02a","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xTVot4dfhnhbGofF9DYYJw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165840458","content_text":"布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美国直接掀了桌子，一边拿储量极其丰富的石油做基准，一边拿着枪炮让全球去相信美国的信誉。此后，美元霸权收割全球的篇章正式打开。经历过两轮收割后，如今镰刀再起，美元可能又要收割全球第三轮。1、不讲武德！布雷顿森林体系崩溃是美元霸权的起点1944年美国确立了“布雷顿森林体系”，建立了美元的金本位制度，美元也在此后被称为“美金”。但在越战失败后，美国黄金储备量迅速下降，美元难以兑换到原本规定的黄金量，导致1971年后，布雷顿森林体系宣布崩溃。那么，为什么说布雷顿森林体系崩溃是美元霸权的起点呢？因为在此之前，黄金储备量是一国央行发行货币基础，纸币并非由国家信用来支撑，而是由黄金来作为基础。也就是说，当时美元只是黄金的“兑换券”。但布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美元选择与原油挂钩，由于原油并不具备黄金的稀缺性，所以美国可以依仗其国家信用，近乎无限制的超发货币（这也是美国开始耍赖的根基）。所以，布雷顿森林体系的崩溃是美元霸权的起点，若是布雷顿森林体系不崩溃，那么美国只能乖乖的按照其黄金储备量来发行货币。但随着布雷顿森林体系崩溃，美元的支撑只有一个储量极高的原油以及美国的信用（可惜美国没有）。对于全球市场来说，由于美元在国际市场上具有超高的流动性（占全球外汇交易的85%左右），所以美国可以通过加息-降息等一系列货币手段来收割全球。2、第一轮收割——超发货币，导致全球资产价格上涨2020年新冠疫情爆发后，美国开启了无限量的量化宽松政策（QE）。截至目前，美国的M2存量较2020年初上升了6.22万亿美元（约44万亿人民币）。“大水漫灌”下，全球资产价格开始大幅上涨——首先，从大宗商品价格来看，2022年5月，CRB商品指数触顶达到644.04点，较低点（2020年4月）上涨了296.52点，涨幅高达85.31%。其次，从房价来看，据OECD统计，疫情期间（9个季度），经合组织成员国实际房价指数共计上涨了18.8个点，季均上涨了2.01个点，而2015-2019年底间（20个季度），房价指数也只上涨了15.6个点，季均仅上涨0.78个点。也就是说，房价的季均增长翻了一倍以上，且近两年多来，房价的涨幅比过去5年还多。最后，从金融市场来看，以标普指数为基准，2021年底，标普触顶达到4796.56点，较低点增长了114.38%。也就是说，去年美国的股市接近翻了一番。那么，为什么说这是美国是去年资产价格大涨的最大受益者呢？在过去几十年的经营下，美国通过威逼（在中东挑起多次战争）利诱（利用马歇尔计划捆绑欧洲等）在全球收割了大量的优质资产。而在资产价格大幅上涨的背景下，美国资本自然得到了极为明显的扩张。以2021年的福布斯排行榜为例，2021年美国顶尖富豪的资产开始大幅的扩张，资产总量大多出现了两位数的增长。这，也是美国对全球优质资产的第一轮收割。3、第二轮收割——收紧货币，加强美元购买力，获得结汇优势2022年3月后，美联储开启“疯狂”的加息进程，截至目前已经累计加息了300BP。在美国疯狂的加息下，美元指数出现大幅的上涨。前不久，美元指数突破114点大关，较其低点上涨了27.67%。为什么说美元指数的大幅走强是美国收割全球的第二轮呢？美元的大幅升值将导致美国出口商品时，其他国家需要用更多的资产（货币）来兑换，且美国可以通过更少的货币去进口海外的优质资源。以2021年为例，美国进出口商品总额高达5.95万亿美元，美元指数的大幅变动将导致美国在结汇上获取大约1.64万亿美元的汇兑收益。4、第三轮收割——周而复始，美国抄底全球的时机逼近众所周知，全球进入加息周期后，资产的泡沫将被戳破，且由于货币政策大多是预后管理，即存在较强的滞后性，所以紧缩的货币政策会导致资产价格超跌，使得其价格表现在一定程度内低于其真实的实际价值。美国，作为全球加息周期的始作俑者，其对于加息周期的经常存在较强的影响力。这也就是说，美国以及美国的投资者能够最便捷的找到抄底全球资产的时机，叠加美元的高流动性下，美国抄底资产的便捷性也明显强于其他国家。在历史上，美国已经通过这样加息-降息的手段，已经在全球“薅”了两次羊毛：拉美失去的十年——1970年，美联储实行低利率政策刺激投资与就业，导致美元贬值，通胀压力高企（大滞胀时期）。部分拉美国家趁机借入大量低利息的美元，投资石油开发，导致其外债规模不断膨胀。1980年美联储突然开启加息周期（沃尔克时代），美元升值，石油价格下跌，拉美国家一下子掉进了美元的陷阱。1982年8月，墨西哥率先爆发债务危机，随后大量拉美国家相继遭遇还债困难，80年代也因此被称作拉美地区“失去的十年”。东南亚金融危机——1990年，东南亚地区经济繁荣发展，在美联储操纵下，大量融资流入东南亚，多国出现经济过热的现象。随后在1994到1995年间，美联储在13个月的时间里接连七次加息。强势美元使大量资本回流美国，成为触发1997到1998年东南亚金融危机的关键因素。1997年7月泰铢大幅贬值，随后冲击波很快蔓延开来，东南亚国家付出了惨痛的代价才从此次动荡中恢复过来。5、美元在国际市场上的影响仍较大从美元自身来看：其各项指标占全全球总量的比重均在40%以上，其中外汇交易以及外汇储备的比重更是高达85%和61%。美元在金融市场上的高占比，是美元霸权的根基。从经济情况来看：美国目前仍是全球第一大经济体，据世界银行数据，2020年美国GDP比重占全球的24.72%（中国为17.37%）。较强的经济实力，是美元霸权的基础。从军事实力来看：美国是全球军费开支最高的国家，2021年军费开支达8000亿美元，明显高于其他国家。此外，据人民网报道，2014年美国在海外军事基地便高达598处，遍及六大洲、四大洋，辐射全球40个国家。强大的军事实力是美元霸权的重要保障。超高的美债将全球主要的经济体捆绑在一起，进一步加强美元的地位。截至目前美债总额已上升至31.15万亿美元，甚至超过了美国的GDP总额。其中，中日欧是美债的重要持有方，截至7月末，合计持有3.55万亿。所以，整体来看，虽然美国利用美元霸权收割全球的行径令人作呕，但仍然不得不承认，目前仍然是全球最主要的结算货币，美元霸权的基础尚没有动摇。6、逆美元化势在必行天下苦美元久矣！逆美元化可能将成为未来国际市场的共识：从历史来看，货币的霸权并非不可颠覆——众所周知，第一次工业革命后，英国成为了全球最强大的国家，号称“日不落帝国”，当时英国对全球经济的掌控较目前的美国有过之而无不及——通过殖民统治控制了全球20%以上的人口以及25%以上的土地，经济体量占全球的70%以上，黄金储备量占全球的80%以上。但在二战后，随着英国国力的衰弱以及美国的崛起，美元才取代英镑成为全球主要的结算货币。从当前情况来看，全球各主要国家均在开始减持美元，据IMF统计，截至2022Q2，全球官方美元储备为66523亿美元，较其高点（2021Q3）下降了4402亿美元。是据统计以来，各国政府减持美元力度最大的一次，反映“去美元化”已经逐步成为国际市场的共识。美国继续收割全球的美梦，或许该醒醒了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9917319022,"gmtCreate":1665442088266,"gmtModify":1676537604893,"author":{"id":"3582607615363022","authorId":"3582607615363022","name":"Leon8985","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2d8505e4320e0b707a54544f3dcc841","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582607615363022","authorIdStr":"3582607615363022"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917319022","repostId":1165840458,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165840458","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665398618,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165840458?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-10 18:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"No martial ethics! How does the US dollar harvest the world's three rounds?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165840458","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美国直接掀了桌子，一边拿储量极其丰富的石油做基准，一边拿着枪炮让全球去相信美国的信誉。此后，美元霸权收割全球的篇章正式打开。经历过两轮收割后，如今镰刀再起，美元可能又要收割全球第","content":"<html><head></head><body>After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States directly flipped the table, using its extremely rich oil reserves as a benchmark, and at the same time using guns to make the world believe in America's credibility. Since then, the chapter of US dollar hegemony harvesting the world has officially opened.After two rounds of harvesting, now that the sickle is rising again, the US dollar may have to harvest the third round of the world.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2f2e44e9342a02dce61d7a45fd84d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>1、No martial ethics! The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of dollar hegemonyIn 1944, the United States established the \"Bretton Woods System\" and established the gold standard system of the US dollar. The US dollar was also called \"US dollar\" since then.However, after the defeat of the Vietnam War, the US gold reserves declined rapidly, and it was difficult to convert the US dollar to the originally prescribed amount of gold, which led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system after 1971.So,Why is the collapse of the Bretton Woods system the starting point of dollar hegemony?Because before that, the gold reserve was the basis for the issuance of money by a country's central bank, and paper money was not supported by national credit, but by gold. That is to say, at that time, the US dollar was just an \"exchange voucher\" for gold.However, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar chose to be pegged to crude oil. Because crude oil is not as scarce as gold, the United States can rely on its national credit to issue almost unlimited excess currency (this is also the foundation for the United States to cheat).So,The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of the dollar hegemony. If the Bretton Woods system does not collapse, then the United States can only obediently issue currency according to its gold reserves. But with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar was only supported by an extremely high reserve of crude oil and American credit (which the United States unfortunately did not have).For the global market, because the US dollar has ultra-high liquidity in the international market (accounting for about 85% of global foreign exchange transactions), the United States can harvest the world through a series of monetary means such as rate hike-interest rate cut.2、The first round of harvest-excessive currency issuance, causing global asset prices to riseAfter the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the United States opened an unlimited amount of quantitative easing Policy (QE).Up to now, the stock of M2 in the United States has increased by 6.22 trillion USD (about 44 trillion RMB) compared with the beginning of 2020.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdaf7c3b4de3e2f6c957f665b7884491\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Under the \"flood\", global asset prices began to rise sharply-First, in terms of commodity prices, in May 2022, the CRB Commodity Index peaked at 644.04 points, and the lower point (April 2020) was up 296.52 points, or a whopping 85.31%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52bb945f1dcc2fd6f0ea82e6e40e1b5a\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Secondly, from the perspective of house prices, according to OECD statistics, during the epidemic period (9 quarters), the real house price index of OECD member countries increased by 18.8 points in total, with an average quarterly increase of 2.01 points, while between the end of 2015 and 2019 (20 quarters), the house price index only increased by 15.6 points, with an average quarterly increase of only 0.78 points.That is to say, the average quarterly growth of house prices has more than doubled, and in the past two years or so, house prices have risen more than in the past five years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cbc30467442689c009212d27085a85b\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Finally, from a financial market perspective, using the S&P index as the benchmark, at the end of 2021, the S&P peaked at 4796.56 points, an increase of 114.38% from its low. That said, the U.S. stock market nearly doubled last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9e44b114a7d6592f8a051044ec7e3a\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>So why is it that the United States was the biggest beneficiary of last year's asset price surge?In the past few decades of operation, the United States, through coercion(Provoking many wars in the Middle East) Lure (Using the Marshall Plan to tie up Europe, etc.)A large number of high-quality assets have been harvested worldwide. Under the background of sharp rise in asset prices, American capital has naturally expanded obviously.Take the 2021 Forbes list as an example. In 2021, the assets of the top richest people in the United States began to expand significantly, and most of the total assets showed double-digit growth.This is also the first round of harvesting global high-quality assets by the United States.3、The second round of harvesting-tightening the currency, strengthening the purchasing power of the US dollar and gaining the advantage of foreign exchange settlementAfter March 2022, the Federal Reserve started the \"crazy\" rate hike process, and up to now, it has accumulated a rate hike of 300BP.Under the crazy rate hike in the United States, the US Dollar Index has seen a sharp rise.Not long ago, the US Dollar Index crossed the 114-point mark, up 27.67% from its low.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5159854d5a26af759e719b4b4eadf25\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Why is the sharp strength of the US Dollar Index the second round of the U.S. harvest of the world?The sharp appreciation of the US dollar will lead to the need for other countries to exchange more assets (currencies) when the United States exports goods, and the United States can import high-quality resources overseas with less currency.In 2021, for example, the total amount of imported and exported goods in the United States amounted to $5.95 trillion, and the drastic change in the US Dollar Index will lead to the United States gaining approximately $1.64 trillion in exchange gains on foreign exchange settlement.4、The third round of harvesting- -cycle after cycle, the time for the United States to bargain for the bottom of the world is approachingAs we all know, after the world enters the rate hike cycle, the asset bubble will be popped, and because the monetary policy is mostly prognostic management, that is, there is a strong lag, soTighter monetary policy can lead to oversold asset pricesSo that its price performance is lower than its true real value to a certain extent.The United States, as the initiator of the global rate hike cycle, often has a strong influence on the rate hike cycle.Which means,Investors in the United States and the United States can find the most convenient opportunity to bargain-hunting global assets. With the high liquidity of the US dollar, the convenience of bargain-hunting assets in the United States is obviously stronger than that in other countries.Historically, the United States has \"harvested\" wool twice around the world through such rate hike-interest rate cuts:Latin America's lost decade— — In 1970, the Federal Reserve implemented a low interest rate policy to stimulate investment and employment, which led to the depreciation of the US dollar and high inflationary pressure (the Great Stagflation Period). Some Latin American countries took the opportunity to borrow large amounts of low-interest dollars to invest in oil development, resulting in the expanding scale of their foreign debt.In 1980, the Federal Reserve suddenly started the rate hike cycle (Volcker era), the dollar appreciated, the oil price fell, and Latin American countries suddenly fell into the trap of the dollar. In August, 1982, Mexico took the lead in the debt crisis, and then a large number of Latin American countries encountered difficulties in repaying their debts one after another. Therefore, the 1980s was called the \"lost decade\" in Latin America.Southeast Asian financial crisis— — In 1990, the economy of Southeast Asia prospered and developed. Under the manipulation of the Federal Reserve, a large amount of financing flowed into Southeast Asia, and many countries experienced economic overheating. Then, between 1994 and 1995, the Federal Reserve had seven consecutive rate hike over a 13-month period.A strong dollar returned a large amount of capital to the United States, which became a key factor in triggering the financial crisis in Southeast Asia from 1997 to 1998. Southeast Asian countries paid a painful price to recover from the turmoil after the Thai baht depreciated sharply in July 1997 and the shockwave spread quickly.5、The impact of the US dollar in the international market is still relatively largeFrom the perspective of the US dollar itself: all its indicators account for more than 40% of the global total, of which the proportion of foreign exchange transactions and foreign exchange reserves is as high as 85% and 61%.The high proportion of the US dollar in the financial market is the foundation of the hegemony of the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3527857b8cb0ffdec05aac5d76449640\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>From the perspective of economic situation: The United States is still the largest economy in the world. According to the World Bank data, the proportion of GDP of the United States in 2020 accounted for 24.72% of the world (China's 17.37%).Strong economic strength is the basis of dollar hegemony.In terms of military strength: The United States is the country with the highest military spending in the world, with military spending reaching $800 billion in 2021, significantly higher than other countries. In addition, according to People's Daily Online, in 2014, the United States had as many as 598 overseas military bases, covering six continents and four oceans, radiating 40 countries around the world.Strong military strength is an important guarantee for the hegemony of the dollar.The ultra-high US debt has tied together the world's major economies and further strengthened the position of the US dollar.Up to now, the total U.S. debt has risen to 31.15 trillion dollars, even exceeding the total GDP of the United States.Among them, China, Japan and Europe are important holders of U.S. debt, holding a total of 3.55 trillion yuan as of the end of July.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08dc1bac97cefa2a40837dc7a03bc229\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Therefore, as a whole, while the United States' use of dollar hegemony to harvest the world is disgusting, it still has to be admitted,At present, it is still the most important settlement currency in the world, and the foundation of US dollar hegemony has not been shaken.6、Anti-dollarization is imperativeThe world has been bitter for a long time! Anti-dollarization may become the consensus of the international market in the future:Historically, the hegemony of money is not irsubversible-as we all know, after the first industrial revolution, Britain became the most powerful country in the world, known as the \"empire where the sun never sets\". At that time, Britain's control over the global economy was even worse than that of the current United States-it controlled more than 20% of the world's population and more than 25% of the world's land through colonial rule, accounting for more than 70% of the world's economy and more than 80% of the world's gold reserves.However, after World War II, with the weakening of Britain's national power and the rise of the United States, the US dollar replaced the British pound as the main settlement currency in the world.From the current situation,Major countries around the world are starting to reduce their holdings of the US dollar, according to the IMF, official global dollar reserves stood at $6,652.3 billion as of 2022Q2, down $440.2 billion from its high (2021Q3). According to statistics, governments of all countries have made the greatest effort to reduce their holdings of US dollars, reflecting that \"de-dollarization\" has gradually become the consensus of the international market.It may be time for the United States to wake up from the dream of continuing to harvest the world.</body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>No martial ethics! How does the US dollar harvest the world's three rounds?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNo martial ethics! How does the US dollar harvest the world's three rounds?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2022-10-10 18:43\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States directly flipped the table, using its extremely rich oil reserves as a benchmark, and at the same time using guns to make the world believe in America's credibility. Since then, the chapter of US dollar hegemony harvesting the world has officially opened.After two rounds of harvesting, now that the sickle is rising again, the US dollar may have to harvest the third round of the world.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2f2e44e9342a02dce61d7a45fd84d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>1、No martial ethics! The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of dollar hegemonyIn 1944, the United States established the \"Bretton Woods System\" and established the gold standard system of the US dollar. The US dollar was also called \"US dollar\" since then.However, after the defeat of the Vietnam War, the US gold reserves declined rapidly, and it was difficult to convert the US dollar to the originally prescribed amount of gold, which led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system after 1971.So,Why is the collapse of the Bretton Woods system the starting point of dollar hegemony?Because before that, the gold reserve was the basis for the issuance of money by a country's central bank, and paper money was not supported by national credit, but by gold. That is to say, at that time, the US dollar was just an \"exchange voucher\" for gold.However, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar chose to be pegged to crude oil. Because crude oil is not as scarce as gold, the United States can rely on its national credit to issue almost unlimited excess currency (this is also the foundation for the United States to cheat).So,The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of the dollar hegemony. If the Bretton Woods system does not collapse, then the United States can only obediently issue currency according to its gold reserves. But with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar was only supported by an extremely high reserve of crude oil and American credit (which the United States unfortunately did not have).For the global market, because the US dollar has ultra-high liquidity in the international market (accounting for about 85% of global foreign exchange transactions), the United States can harvest the world through a series of monetary means such as rate hike-interest rate cut.2、The first round of harvest-excessive currency issuance, causing global asset prices to riseAfter the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the United States opened an unlimited amount of quantitative easing Policy (QE).Up to now, the stock of M2 in the United States has increased by 6.22 trillion USD (about 44 trillion RMB) compared with the beginning of 2020.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdaf7c3b4de3e2f6c957f665b7884491\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Under the \"flood\", global asset prices began to rise sharply-First, in terms of commodity prices, in May 2022, the CRB Commodity Index peaked at 644.04 points, and the lower point (April 2020) was up 296.52 points, or a whopping 85.31%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52bb945f1dcc2fd6f0ea82e6e40e1b5a\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Secondly, from the perspective of house prices, according to OECD statistics, during the epidemic period (9 quarters), the real house price index of OECD member countries increased by 18.8 points in total, with an average quarterly increase of 2.01 points, while between the end of 2015 and 2019 (20 quarters), the house price index only increased by 15.6 points, with an average quarterly increase of only 0.78 points.That is to say, the average quarterly growth of house prices has more than doubled, and in the past two years or so, house prices have risen more than in the past five years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cbc30467442689c009212d27085a85b\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Finally, from a financial market perspective, using the S&P index as the benchmark, at the end of 2021, the S&P peaked at 4796.56 points, an increase of 114.38% from its low. That said, the U.S. stock market nearly doubled last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9e44b114a7d6592f8a051044ec7e3a\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>So why is it that the United States was the biggest beneficiary of last year's asset price surge?In the past few decades of operation, the United States, through coercion(Provoking many wars in the Middle East) Lure (Using the Marshall Plan to tie up Europe, etc.)A large number of high-quality assets have been harvested worldwide. Under the background of sharp rise in asset prices, American capital has naturally expanded obviously.Take the 2021 Forbes list as an example. In 2021, the assets of the top richest people in the United States began to expand significantly, and most of the total assets showed double-digit growth.This is also the first round of harvesting global high-quality assets by the United States.3、The second round of harvesting-tightening the currency, strengthening the purchasing power of the US dollar and gaining the advantage of foreign exchange settlementAfter March 2022, the Federal Reserve started the \"crazy\" rate hike process, and up to now, it has accumulated a rate hike of 300BP.Under the crazy rate hike in the United States, the US Dollar Index has seen a sharp rise.Not long ago, the US Dollar Index crossed the 114-point mark, up 27.67% from its low.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5159854d5a26af759e719b4b4eadf25\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Why is the sharp strength of the US Dollar Index the second round of the U.S. harvest of the world?The sharp appreciation of the US dollar will lead to the need for other countries to exchange more assets (currencies) when the United States exports goods, and the United States can import high-quality resources overseas with less currency.In 2021, for example, the total amount of imported and exported goods in the United States amounted to $5.95 trillion, and the drastic change in the US Dollar Index will lead to the United States gaining approximately $1.64 trillion in exchange gains on foreign exchange settlement.4、The third round of harvesting- -cycle after cycle, the time for the United States to bargain for the bottom of the world is approachingAs we all know, after the world enters the rate hike cycle, the asset bubble will be popped, and because the monetary policy is mostly prognostic management, that is, there is a strong lag, soTighter monetary policy can lead to oversold asset pricesSo that its price performance is lower than its true real value to a certain extent.The United States, as the initiator of the global rate hike cycle, often has a strong influence on the rate hike cycle.Which means,Investors in the United States and the United States can find the most convenient opportunity to bargain-hunting global assets. With the high liquidity of the US dollar, the convenience of bargain-hunting assets in the United States is obviously stronger than that in other countries.Historically, the United States has \"harvested\" wool twice around the world through such rate hike-interest rate cuts:Latin America's lost decade— — In 1970, the Federal Reserve implemented a low interest rate policy to stimulate investment and employment, which led to the depreciation of the US dollar and high inflationary pressure (the Great Stagflation Period). Some Latin American countries took the opportunity to borrow large amounts of low-interest dollars to invest in oil development, resulting in the expanding scale of their foreign debt.In 1980, the Federal Reserve suddenly started the rate hike cycle (Volcker era), the dollar appreciated, the oil price fell, and Latin American countries suddenly fell into the trap of the dollar. In August, 1982, Mexico took the lead in the debt crisis, and then a large number of Latin American countries encountered difficulties in repaying their debts one after another. Therefore, the 1980s was called the \"lost decade\" in Latin America.Southeast Asian financial crisis— — In 1990, the economy of Southeast Asia prospered and developed. Under the manipulation of the Federal Reserve, a large amount of financing flowed into Southeast Asia, and many countries experienced economic overheating. Then, between 1994 and 1995, the Federal Reserve had seven consecutive rate hike over a 13-month period.A strong dollar returned a large amount of capital to the United States, which became a key factor in triggering the financial crisis in Southeast Asia from 1997 to 1998. Southeast Asian countries paid a painful price to recover from the turmoil after the Thai baht depreciated sharply in July 1997 and the shockwave spread quickly.5、The impact of the US dollar in the international market is still relatively largeFrom the perspective of the US dollar itself: all its indicators account for more than 40% of the global total, of which the proportion of foreign exchange transactions and foreign exchange reserves is as high as 85% and 61%.The high proportion of the US dollar in the financial market is the foundation of the hegemony of the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3527857b8cb0ffdec05aac5d76449640\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>From the perspective of economic situation: The United States is still the largest economy in the world. According to the World Bank data, the proportion of GDP of the United States in 2020 accounted for 24.72% of the world (China's 17.37%).Strong economic strength is the basis of dollar hegemony.In terms of military strength: The United States is the country with the highest military spending in the world, with military spending reaching $800 billion in 2021, significantly higher than other countries. In addition, according to People's Daily Online, in 2014, the United States had as many as 598 overseas military bases, covering six continents and four oceans, radiating 40 countries around the world.Strong military strength is an important guarantee for the hegemony of the dollar.The ultra-high US debt has tied together the world's major economies and further strengthened the position of the US dollar.Up to now, the total U.S. debt has risen to 31.15 trillion dollars, even exceeding the total GDP of the United States.Among them, China, Japan and Europe are important holders of U.S. debt, holding a total of 3.55 trillion yuan as of the end of July.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08dc1bac97cefa2a40837dc7a03bc229\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Therefore, as a whole, while the United States' use of dollar hegemony to harvest the world is disgusting, it still has to be admitted,At present, it is still the most important settlement currency in the world, and the foundation of US dollar hegemony has not been shaken.6、Anti-dollarization is imperativeThe world has been bitter for a long time! Anti-dollarization may become the consensus of the international market in the future:Historically, the hegemony of money is not irsubversible-as we all know, after the first industrial revolution, Britain became the most powerful country in the world, known as the \"empire where the sun never sets\". At that time, Britain's control over the global economy was even worse than that of the current United States-it controlled more than 20% of the world's population and more than 25% of the world's land through colonial rule, accounting for more than 70% of the world's economy and more than 80% of the world's gold reserves.However, after World War II, with the weakening of Britain's national power and the rise of the United States, the US dollar replaced the British pound as the main settlement currency in the world.From the current situation,Major countries around the world are starting to reduce their holdings of the US dollar, according to the IMF, official global dollar reserves stood at $6,652.3 billion as of 2022Q2, down $440.2 billion from its high (2021Q3). According to statistics, governments of all countries have made the greatest effort to reduce their holdings of US dollars, reflecting that \"de-dollarization\" has gradually become the consensus of the international market.It may be time for the United States to wake up from the dream of continuing to harvest the world.</body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xTVot4dfhnhbGofF9DYYJw\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d21e136ce4e27586f0bca6b38743d02a","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xTVot4dfhnhbGofF9DYYJw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165840458","content_text":"布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美国直接掀了桌子，一边拿储量极其丰富的石油做基准，一边拿着枪炮让全球去相信美国的信誉。此后，美元霸权收割全球的篇章正式打开。经历过两轮收割后，如今镰刀再起，美元可能又要收割全球第三轮。1、不讲武德！布雷顿森林体系崩溃是美元霸权的起点1944年美国确立了“布雷顿森林体系”，建立了美元的金本位制度，美元也在此后被称为“美金”。但在越战失败后，美国黄金储备量迅速下降，美元难以兑换到原本规定的黄金量，导致1971年后，布雷顿森林体系宣布崩溃。那么，为什么说布雷顿森林体系崩溃是美元霸权的起点呢？因为在此之前，黄金储备量是一国央行发行货币基础，纸币并非由国家信用来支撑，而是由黄金来作为基础。也就是说，当时美元只是黄金的“兑换券”。但布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美元选择与原油挂钩，由于原油并不具备黄金的稀缺性，所以美国可以依仗其国家信用，近乎无限制的超发货币（这也是美国开始耍赖的根基）。所以，布雷顿森林体系的崩溃是美元霸权的起点，若是布雷顿森林体系不崩溃，那么美国只能乖乖的按照其黄金储备量来发行货币。但随着布雷顿森林体系崩溃，美元的支撑只有一个储量极高的原油以及美国的信用（可惜美国没有）。对于全球市场来说，由于美元在国际市场上具有超高的流动性（占全球外汇交易的85%左右），所以美国可以通过加息-降息等一系列货币手段来收割全球。2、第一轮收割——超发货币，导致全球资产价格上涨2020年新冠疫情爆发后，美国开启了无限量的量化宽松政策（QE）。截至目前，美国的M2存量较2020年初上升了6.22万亿美元（约44万亿人民币）。“大水漫灌”下，全球资产价格开始大幅上涨——首先，从大宗商品价格来看，2022年5月，CRB商品指数触顶达到644.04点，较低点（2020年4月）上涨了296.52点，涨幅高达85.31%。其次，从房价来看，据OECD统计，疫情期间（9个季度），经合组织成员国实际房价指数共计上涨了18.8个点，季均上涨了2.01个点，而2015-2019年底间（20个季度），房价指数也只上涨了15.6个点，季均仅上涨0.78个点。也就是说，房价的季均增长翻了一倍以上，且近两年多来，房价的涨幅比过去5年还多。最后，从金融市场来看，以标普指数为基准，2021年底，标普触顶达到4796.56点，较低点增长了114.38%。也就是说，去年美国的股市接近翻了一番。那么，为什么说这是美国是去年资产价格大涨的最大受益者呢？在过去几十年的经营下，美国通过威逼（在中东挑起多次战争）利诱（利用马歇尔计划捆绑欧洲等）在全球收割了大量的优质资产。而在资产价格大幅上涨的背景下，美国资本自然得到了极为明显的扩张。以2021年的福布斯排行榜为例，2021年美国顶尖富豪的资产开始大幅的扩张，资产总量大多出现了两位数的增长。这，也是美国对全球优质资产的第一轮收割。3、第二轮收割——收紧货币，加强美元购买力，获得结汇优势2022年3月后，美联储开启“疯狂”的加息进程，截至目前已经累计加息了300BP。在美国疯狂的加息下，美元指数出现大幅的上涨。前不久，美元指数突破114点大关，较其低点上涨了27.67%。为什么说美元指数的大幅走强是美国收割全球的第二轮呢？美元的大幅升值将导致美国出口商品时，其他国家需要用更多的资产（货币）来兑换，且美国可以通过更少的货币去进口海外的优质资源。以2021年为例，美国进出口商品总额高达5.95万亿美元，美元指数的大幅变动将导致美国在结汇上获取大约1.64万亿美元的汇兑收益。4、第三轮收割——周而复始，美国抄底全球的时机逼近众所周知，全球进入加息周期后，资产的泡沫将被戳破，且由于货币政策大多是预后管理，即存在较强的滞后性，所以紧缩的货币政策会导致资产价格超跌，使得其价格表现在一定程度内低于其真实的实际价值。美国，作为全球加息周期的始作俑者，其对于加息周期的经常存在较强的影响力。这也就是说，美国以及美国的投资者能够最便捷的找到抄底全球资产的时机，叠加美元的高流动性下，美国抄底资产的便捷性也明显强于其他国家。在历史上，美国已经通过这样加息-降息的手段，已经在全球“薅”了两次羊毛：拉美失去的十年——1970年，美联储实行低利率政策刺激投资与就业，导致美元贬值，通胀压力高企（大滞胀时期）。部分拉美国家趁机借入大量低利息的美元，投资石油开发，导致其外债规模不断膨胀。1980年美联储突然开启加息周期（沃尔克时代），美元升值，石油价格下跌，拉美国家一下子掉进了美元的陷阱。1982年8月，墨西哥率先爆发债务危机，随后大量拉美国家相继遭遇还债困难，80年代也因此被称作拉美地区“失去的十年”。东南亚金融危机——1990年，东南亚地区经济繁荣发展，在美联储操纵下，大量融资流入东南亚，多国出现经济过热的现象。随后在1994到1995年间，美联储在13个月的时间里接连七次加息。强势美元使大量资本回流美国，成为触发1997到1998年东南亚金融危机的关键因素。1997年7月泰铢大幅贬值，随后冲击波很快蔓延开来，东南亚国家付出了惨痛的代价才从此次动荡中恢复过来。5、美元在国际市场上的影响仍较大从美元自身来看：其各项指标占全全球总量的比重均在40%以上，其中外汇交易以及外汇储备的比重更是高达85%和61%。美元在金融市场上的高占比，是美元霸权的根基。从经济情况来看：美国目前仍是全球第一大经济体，据世界银行数据，2020年美国GDP比重占全球的24.72%（中国为17.37%）。较强的经济实力，是美元霸权的基础。从军事实力来看：美国是全球军费开支最高的国家，2021年军费开支达8000亿美元，明显高于其他国家。此外，据人民网报道，2014年美国在海外军事基地便高达598处，遍及六大洲、四大洋，辐射全球40个国家。强大的军事实力是美元霸权的重要保障。超高的美债将全球主要的经济体捆绑在一起，进一步加强美元的地位。截至目前美债总额已上升至31.15万亿美元，甚至超过了美国的GDP总额。其中，中日欧是美债的重要持有方，截至7月末，合计持有3.55万亿。所以，整体来看，虽然美国利用美元霸权收割全球的行径令人作呕，但仍然不得不承认，目前仍然是全球最主要的结算货币，美元霸权的基础尚没有动摇。6、逆美元化势在必行天下苦美元久矣！逆美元化可能将成为未来国际市场的共识：从历史来看，货币的霸权并非不可颠覆——众所周知，第一次工业革命后，英国成为了全球最强大的国家，号称“日不落帝国”，当时英国对全球经济的掌控较目前的美国有过之而无不及——通过殖民统治控制了全球20%以上的人口以及25%以上的土地，经济体量占全球的70%以上，黄金储备量占全球的80%以上。但在二战后，随着英国国力的衰弱以及美国的崛起，美元才取代英镑成为全球主要的结算货币。从当前情况来看，全球各主要国家均在开始减持美元，据IMF统计，截至2022Q2，全球官方美元储备为66523亿美元，较其高点（2021Q3）下降了4402亿美元。是据统计以来，各国政府减持美元力度最大的一次，反映“去美元化”已经逐步成为国际市场的共识。美国继续收割全球的美梦，或许该醒醒了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9917072400,"gmtCreate":1665403062000,"gmtModify":1676537599928,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"htmlText":"任何人都可以抄底美股呀，只要你有錢。","listText":"任何人都可以抄底美股呀，只要你有錢。","text":"任何人都可以抄底美股呀，只要你有錢。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917072400","repostId":1165840458,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1165840458","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665398618,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165840458?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-10 18:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"No martial ethics! How does the US dollar harvest the world's three rounds?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165840458","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美国直接掀了桌子，一边拿储量极其丰富的石油做基准，一边拿着枪炮让全球去相信美国的信誉。此后，美元霸权收割全球的篇章正式打开。经历过两轮收割后，如今镰刀再起，美元可能又要收割全球第","content":"<html><head></head><body>After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States directly flipped the table, using its extremely rich oil reserves as a benchmark, and at the same time using guns to make the world believe in America's credibility. Since then, the chapter of US dollar hegemony harvesting the world has officially opened.After two rounds of harvesting, now that the sickle is rising again, the US dollar may have to harvest the third round of the world.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2f2e44e9342a02dce61d7a45fd84d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>1、No martial ethics! The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of dollar hegemonyIn 1944, the United States established the \"Bretton Woods System\" and established the gold standard system of the US dollar. The US dollar was also called \"US dollar\" since then.However, after the defeat of the Vietnam War, the US gold reserves declined rapidly, and it was difficult to convert the US dollar to the originally prescribed amount of gold, which led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system after 1971.So,Why is the collapse of the Bretton Woods system the starting point of dollar hegemony?Because before that, the gold reserve was the basis for the issuance of money by a country's central bank, and paper money was not supported by national credit, but by gold. That is to say, at that time, the US dollar was just an \"exchange voucher\" for gold.However, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar chose to be pegged to crude oil. Because crude oil is not as scarce as gold, the United States can rely on its national credit to issue almost unlimited excess currency (this is also the foundation for the United States to cheat).So,The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of the dollar hegemony. If the Bretton Woods system does not collapse, then the United States can only obediently issue currency according to its gold reserves. But with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar was only supported by an extremely high reserve of crude oil and American credit (which the United States unfortunately did not have).For the global market, because the US dollar has ultra-high liquidity in the international market (accounting for about 85% of global foreign exchange transactions), the United States can harvest the world through a series of monetary means such as rate hike-interest rate cut.2、The first round of harvest-excessive currency issuance, causing global asset prices to riseAfter the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the United States opened an unlimited amount of quantitative easing Policy (QE).Up to now, the stock of M2 in the United States has increased by 6.22 trillion USD (about 44 trillion RMB) compared with the beginning of 2020.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdaf7c3b4de3e2f6c957f665b7884491\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Under the \"flood\", global asset prices began to rise sharply-First, in terms of commodity prices, in May 2022, the CRB Commodity Index peaked at 644.04 points, and the lower point (April 2020) was up 296.52 points, or a whopping 85.31%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52bb945f1dcc2fd6f0ea82e6e40e1b5a\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Secondly, from the perspective of house prices, according to OECD statistics, during the epidemic period (9 quarters), the real house price index of OECD member countries increased by 18.8 points in total, with an average quarterly increase of 2.01 points, while between the end of 2015 and 2019 (20 quarters), the house price index only increased by 15.6 points, with an average quarterly increase of only 0.78 points.That is to say, the average quarterly growth of house prices has more than doubled, and in the past two years or so, house prices have risen more than in the past five years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cbc30467442689c009212d27085a85b\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Finally, from a financial market perspective, using the S&P index as the benchmark, at the end of 2021, the S&P peaked at 4796.56 points, an increase of 114.38% from its low. That said, the U.S. stock market nearly doubled last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9e44b114a7d6592f8a051044ec7e3a\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>So why is it that the United States was the biggest beneficiary of last year's asset price surge?In the past few decades of operation, the United States, through coercion(Provoking many wars in the Middle East) Lure (Using the Marshall Plan to tie up Europe, etc.)A large number of high-quality assets have been harvested worldwide. Under the background of sharp rise in asset prices, American capital has naturally expanded obviously.Take the 2021 Forbes list as an example. In 2021, the assets of the top richest people in the United States began to expand significantly, and most of the total assets showed double-digit growth.This is also the first round of harvesting global high-quality assets by the United States.3、The second round of harvesting-tightening the currency, strengthening the purchasing power of the US dollar and gaining the advantage of foreign exchange settlementAfter March 2022, the Federal Reserve started the \"crazy\" rate hike process, and up to now, it has accumulated a rate hike of 300BP.Under the crazy rate hike in the United States, the US Dollar Index has seen a sharp rise.Not long ago, the US Dollar Index crossed the 114-point mark, up 27.67% from its low.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5159854d5a26af759e719b4b4eadf25\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Why is the sharp strength of the US Dollar Index the second round of the U.S. harvest of the world?The sharp appreciation of the US dollar will lead to the need for other countries to exchange more assets (currencies) when the United States exports goods, and the United States can import high-quality resources overseas with less currency.In 2021, for example, the total amount of imported and exported goods in the United States amounted to $5.95 trillion, and the drastic change in the US Dollar Index will lead to the United States gaining approximately $1.64 trillion in exchange gains on foreign exchange settlement.4、The third round of harvesting- -cycle after cycle, the time for the United States to bargain for the bottom of the world is approachingAs we all know, after the world enters the rate hike cycle, the asset bubble will be popped, and because the monetary policy is mostly prognostic management, that is, there is a strong lag, soTighter monetary policy can lead to oversold asset pricesSo that its price performance is lower than its true real value to a certain extent.The United States, as the initiator of the global rate hike cycle, often has a strong influence on the rate hike cycle.Which means,Investors in the United States and the United States can find the most convenient opportunity to bargain-hunting global assets. With the high liquidity of the US dollar, the convenience of bargain-hunting assets in the United States is obviously stronger than that in other countries.Historically, the United States has \"harvested\" wool twice around the world through such rate hike-interest rate cuts:Latin America's lost decade— — In 1970, the Federal Reserve implemented a low interest rate policy to stimulate investment and employment, which led to the depreciation of the US dollar and high inflationary pressure (the Great Stagflation Period). Some Latin American countries took the opportunity to borrow large amounts of low-interest dollars to invest in oil development, resulting in the expanding scale of their foreign debt.In 1980, the Federal Reserve suddenly started the rate hike cycle (Volcker era), the dollar appreciated, the oil price fell, and Latin American countries suddenly fell into the trap of the dollar. In August, 1982, Mexico took the lead in the debt crisis, and then a large number of Latin American countries encountered difficulties in repaying their debts one after another. Therefore, the 1980s was called the \"lost decade\" in Latin America.Southeast Asian financial crisis— — In 1990, the economy of Southeast Asia prospered and developed. Under the manipulation of the Federal Reserve, a large amount of financing flowed into Southeast Asia, and many countries experienced economic overheating. Then, between 1994 and 1995, the Federal Reserve had seven consecutive rate hike over a 13-month period.A strong dollar returned a large amount of capital to the United States, which became a key factor in triggering the financial crisis in Southeast Asia from 1997 to 1998. Southeast Asian countries paid a painful price to recover from the turmoil after the Thai baht depreciated sharply in July 1997 and the shockwave spread quickly.5、The impact of the US dollar in the international market is still relatively largeFrom the perspective of the US dollar itself: all its indicators account for more than 40% of the global total, of which the proportion of foreign exchange transactions and foreign exchange reserves is as high as 85% and 61%.The high proportion of the US dollar in the financial market is the foundation of the hegemony of the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3527857b8cb0ffdec05aac5d76449640\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>From the perspective of economic situation: The United States is still the largest economy in the world. According to the World Bank data, the proportion of GDP of the United States in 2020 accounted for 24.72% of the world (China's 17.37%).Strong economic strength is the basis of dollar hegemony.In terms of military strength: The United States is the country with the highest military spending in the world, with military spending reaching $800 billion in 2021, significantly higher than other countries. In addition, according to People's Daily Online, in 2014, the United States had as many as 598 overseas military bases, covering six continents and four oceans, radiating 40 countries around the world.Strong military strength is an important guarantee for the hegemony of the dollar.The ultra-high US debt has tied together the world's major economies and further strengthened the position of the US dollar.Up to now, the total U.S. debt has risen to 31.15 trillion dollars, even exceeding the total GDP of the United States.Among them, China, Japan and Europe are important holders of U.S. debt, holding a total of 3.55 trillion yuan as of the end of July.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08dc1bac97cefa2a40837dc7a03bc229\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Therefore, as a whole, while the United States' use of dollar hegemony to harvest the world is disgusting, it still has to be admitted,At present, it is still the most important settlement currency in the world, and the foundation of US dollar hegemony has not been shaken.6、Anti-dollarization is imperativeThe world has been bitter for a long time! Anti-dollarization may become the consensus of the international market in the future:Historically, the hegemony of money is not irsubversible-as we all know, after the first industrial revolution, Britain became the most powerful country in the world, known as the \"empire where the sun never sets\". At that time, Britain's control over the global economy was even worse than that of the current United States-it controlled more than 20% of the world's population and more than 25% of the world's land through colonial rule, accounting for more than 70% of the world's economy and more than 80% of the world's gold reserves.However, after World War II, with the weakening of Britain's national power and the rise of the United States, the US dollar replaced the British pound as the main settlement currency in the world.From the current situation,Major countries around the world are starting to reduce their holdings of the US dollar, according to the IMF, official global dollar reserves stood at $6,652.3 billion as of 2022Q2, down $440.2 billion from its high (2021Q3). According to statistics, governments of all countries have made the greatest effort to reduce their holdings of US dollars, reflecting that \"de-dollarization\" has gradually become the consensus of the international market.It may be time for the United States to wake up from the dream of continuing to harvest the world.</body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>No martial ethics! How does the US dollar harvest the world's three rounds?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNo martial ethics! How does the US dollar harvest the world's three rounds?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2022-10-10 18:43\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States directly flipped the table, using its extremely rich oil reserves as a benchmark, and at the same time using guns to make the world believe in America's credibility. Since then, the chapter of US dollar hegemony harvesting the world has officially opened.After two rounds of harvesting, now that the sickle is rising again, the US dollar may have to harvest the third round of the world.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2f2e44e9342a02dce61d7a45fd84d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>1、No martial ethics! The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of dollar hegemonyIn 1944, the United States established the \"Bretton Woods System\" and established the gold standard system of the US dollar. The US dollar was also called \"US dollar\" since then.However, after the defeat of the Vietnam War, the US gold reserves declined rapidly, and it was difficult to convert the US dollar to the originally prescribed amount of gold, which led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system after 1971.So,Why is the collapse of the Bretton Woods system the starting point of dollar hegemony?Because before that, the gold reserve was the basis for the issuance of money by a country's central bank, and paper money was not supported by national credit, but by gold. That is to say, at that time, the US dollar was just an \"exchange voucher\" for gold.However, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar chose to be pegged to crude oil. Because crude oil is not as scarce as gold, the United States can rely on its national credit to issue almost unlimited excess currency (this is also the foundation for the United States to cheat).So,The collapse of the Bretton Woods system is the starting point of the dollar hegemony. If the Bretton Woods system does not collapse, then the United States can only obediently issue currency according to its gold reserves. But with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar was only supported by an extremely high reserve of crude oil and American credit (which the United States unfortunately did not have).For the global market, because the US dollar has ultra-high liquidity in the international market (accounting for about 85% of global foreign exchange transactions), the United States can harvest the world through a series of monetary means such as rate hike-interest rate cut.2、The first round of harvest-excessive currency issuance, causing global asset prices to riseAfter the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the United States opened an unlimited amount of quantitative easing Policy (QE).Up to now, the stock of M2 in the United States has increased by 6.22 trillion USD (about 44 trillion RMB) compared with the beginning of 2020.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdaf7c3b4de3e2f6c957f665b7884491\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Under the \"flood\", global asset prices began to rise sharply-First, in terms of commodity prices, in May 2022, the CRB Commodity Index peaked at 644.04 points, and the lower point (April 2020) was up 296.52 points, or a whopping 85.31%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52bb945f1dcc2fd6f0ea82e6e40e1b5a\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Secondly, from the perspective of house prices, according to OECD statistics, during the epidemic period (9 quarters), the real house price index of OECD member countries increased by 18.8 points in total, with an average quarterly increase of 2.01 points, while between the end of 2015 and 2019 (20 quarters), the house price index only increased by 15.6 points, with an average quarterly increase of only 0.78 points.That is to say, the average quarterly growth of house prices has more than doubled, and in the past two years or so, house prices have risen more than in the past five years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cbc30467442689c009212d27085a85b\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Finally, from a financial market perspective, using the S&P index as the benchmark, at the end of 2021, the S&P peaked at 4796.56 points, an increase of 114.38% from its low. That said, the U.S. stock market nearly doubled last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9e44b114a7d6592f8a051044ec7e3a\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>So why is it that the United States was the biggest beneficiary of last year's asset price surge?In the past few decades of operation, the United States, through coercion(Provoking many wars in the Middle East) Lure (Using the Marshall Plan to tie up Europe, etc.)A large number of high-quality assets have been harvested worldwide. Under the background of sharp rise in asset prices, American capital has naturally expanded obviously.Take the 2021 Forbes list as an example. In 2021, the assets of the top richest people in the United States began to expand significantly, and most of the total assets showed double-digit growth.This is also the first round of harvesting global high-quality assets by the United States.3、The second round of harvesting-tightening the currency, strengthening the purchasing power of the US dollar and gaining the advantage of foreign exchange settlementAfter March 2022, the Federal Reserve started the \"crazy\" rate hike process, and up to now, it has accumulated a rate hike of 300BP.Under the crazy rate hike in the United States, the US Dollar Index has seen a sharp rise.Not long ago, the US Dollar Index crossed the 114-point mark, up 27.67% from its low.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5159854d5a26af759e719b4b4eadf25\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Why is the sharp strength of the US Dollar Index the second round of the U.S. harvest of the world?The sharp appreciation of the US dollar will lead to the need for other countries to exchange more assets (currencies) when the United States exports goods, and the United States can import high-quality resources overseas with less currency.In 2021, for example, the total amount of imported and exported goods in the United States amounted to $5.95 trillion, and the drastic change in the US Dollar Index will lead to the United States gaining approximately $1.64 trillion in exchange gains on foreign exchange settlement.4、The third round of harvesting- -cycle after cycle, the time for the United States to bargain for the bottom of the world is approachingAs we all know, after the world enters the rate hike cycle, the asset bubble will be popped, and because the monetary policy is mostly prognostic management, that is, there is a strong lag, soTighter monetary policy can lead to oversold asset pricesSo that its price performance is lower than its true real value to a certain extent.The United States, as the initiator of the global rate hike cycle, often has a strong influence on the rate hike cycle.Which means,Investors in the United States and the United States can find the most convenient opportunity to bargain-hunting global assets. With the high liquidity of the US dollar, the convenience of bargain-hunting assets in the United States is obviously stronger than that in other countries.Historically, the United States has \"harvested\" wool twice around the world through such rate hike-interest rate cuts:Latin America's lost decade— — In 1970, the Federal Reserve implemented a low interest rate policy to stimulate investment and employment, which led to the depreciation of the US dollar and high inflationary pressure (the Great Stagflation Period). Some Latin American countries took the opportunity to borrow large amounts of low-interest dollars to invest in oil development, resulting in the expanding scale of their foreign debt.In 1980, the Federal Reserve suddenly started the rate hike cycle (Volcker era), the dollar appreciated, the oil price fell, and Latin American countries suddenly fell into the trap of the dollar. In August, 1982, Mexico took the lead in the debt crisis, and then a large number of Latin American countries encountered difficulties in repaying their debts one after another. Therefore, the 1980s was called the \"lost decade\" in Latin America.Southeast Asian financial crisis— — In 1990, the economy of Southeast Asia prospered and developed. Under the manipulation of the Federal Reserve, a large amount of financing flowed into Southeast Asia, and many countries experienced economic overheating. Then, between 1994 and 1995, the Federal Reserve had seven consecutive rate hike over a 13-month period.A strong dollar returned a large amount of capital to the United States, which became a key factor in triggering the financial crisis in Southeast Asia from 1997 to 1998. Southeast Asian countries paid a painful price to recover from the turmoil after the Thai baht depreciated sharply in July 1997 and the shockwave spread quickly.5、The impact of the US dollar in the international market is still relatively largeFrom the perspective of the US dollar itself: all its indicators account for more than 40% of the global total, of which the proportion of foreign exchange transactions and foreign exchange reserves is as high as 85% and 61%.The high proportion of the US dollar in the financial market is the foundation of the hegemony of the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3527857b8cb0ffdec05aac5d76449640\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>From the perspective of economic situation: The United States is still the largest economy in the world. According to the World Bank data, the proportion of GDP of the United States in 2020 accounted for 24.72% of the world (China's 17.37%).Strong economic strength is the basis of dollar hegemony.In terms of military strength: The United States is the country with the highest military spending in the world, with military spending reaching $800 billion in 2021, significantly higher than other countries. In addition, according to People's Daily Online, in 2014, the United States had as many as 598 overseas military bases, covering six continents and four oceans, radiating 40 countries around the world.Strong military strength is an important guarantee for the hegemony of the dollar.The ultra-high US debt has tied together the world's major economies and further strengthened the position of the US dollar.Up to now, the total U.S. debt has risen to 31.15 trillion dollars, even exceeding the total GDP of the United States.Among them, China, Japan and Europe are important holders of U.S. debt, holding a total of 3.55 trillion yuan as of the end of July.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08dc1bac97cefa2a40837dc7a03bc229\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Therefore, as a whole, while the United States' use of dollar hegemony to harvest the world is disgusting, it still has to be admitted,At present, it is still the most important settlement currency in the world, and the foundation of US dollar hegemony has not been shaken.6、Anti-dollarization is imperativeThe world has been bitter for a long time! Anti-dollarization may become the consensus of the international market in the future:Historically, the hegemony of money is not irsubversible-as we all know, after the first industrial revolution, Britain became the most powerful country in the world, known as the \"empire where the sun never sets\". At that time, Britain's control over the global economy was even worse than that of the current United States-it controlled more than 20% of the world's population and more than 25% of the world's land through colonial rule, accounting for more than 70% of the world's economy and more than 80% of the world's gold reserves.However, after World War II, with the weakening of Britain's national power and the rise of the United States, the US dollar replaced the British pound as the main settlement currency in the world.From the current situation,Major countries around the world are starting to reduce their holdings of the US dollar, according to the IMF, official global dollar reserves stood at $6,652.3 billion as of 2022Q2, down $440.2 billion from its high (2021Q3). According to statistics, governments of all countries have made the greatest effort to reduce their holdings of US dollars, reflecting that \"de-dollarization\" has gradually become the consensus of the international market.It may be time for the United States to wake up from the dream of continuing to harvest the world.</body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xTVot4dfhnhbGofF9DYYJw\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d21e136ce4e27586f0bca6b38743d02a","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xTVot4dfhnhbGofF9DYYJw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165840458","content_text":"布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美国直接掀了桌子，一边拿储量极其丰富的石油做基准，一边拿着枪炮让全球去相信美国的信誉。此后，美元霸权收割全球的篇章正式打开。经历过两轮收割后，如今镰刀再起，美元可能又要收割全球第三轮。1、不讲武德！布雷顿森林体系崩溃是美元霸权的起点1944年美国确立了“布雷顿森林体系”，建立了美元的金本位制度，美元也在此后被称为“美金”。但在越战失败后，美国黄金储备量迅速下降，美元难以兑换到原本规定的黄金量，导致1971年后，布雷顿森林体系宣布崩溃。那么，为什么说布雷顿森林体系崩溃是美元霸权的起点呢？因为在此之前，黄金储备量是一国央行发行货币基础，纸币并非由国家信用来支撑，而是由黄金来作为基础。也就是说，当时美元只是黄金的“兑换券”。但布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美元选择与原油挂钩，由于原油并不具备黄金的稀缺性，所以美国可以依仗其国家信用，近乎无限制的超发货币（这也是美国开始耍赖的根基）。所以，布雷顿森林体系的崩溃是美元霸权的起点，若是布雷顿森林体系不崩溃，那么美国只能乖乖的按照其黄金储备量来发行货币。但随着布雷顿森林体系崩溃，美元的支撑只有一个储量极高的原油以及美国的信用（可惜美国没有）。对于全球市场来说，由于美元在国际市场上具有超高的流动性（占全球外汇交易的85%左右），所以美国可以通过加息-降息等一系列货币手段来收割全球。2、第一轮收割——超发货币，导致全球资产价格上涨2020年新冠疫情爆发后，美国开启了无限量的量化宽松政策（QE）。截至目前，美国的M2存量较2020年初上升了6.22万亿美元（约44万亿人民币）。“大水漫灌”下，全球资产价格开始大幅上涨——首先，从大宗商品价格来看，2022年5月，CRB商品指数触顶达到644.04点，较低点（2020年4月）上涨了296.52点，涨幅高达85.31%。其次，从房价来看，据OECD统计，疫情期间（9个季度），经合组织成员国实际房价指数共计上涨了18.8个点，季均上涨了2.01个点，而2015-2019年底间（20个季度），房价指数也只上涨了15.6个点，季均仅上涨0.78个点。也就是说，房价的季均增长翻了一倍以上，且近两年多来，房价的涨幅比过去5年还多。最后，从金融市场来看，以标普指数为基准，2021年底，标普触顶达到4796.56点，较低点增长了114.38%。也就是说，去年美国的股市接近翻了一番。那么，为什么说这是美国是去年资产价格大涨的最大受益者呢？在过去几十年的经营下，美国通过威逼（在中东挑起多次战争）利诱（利用马歇尔计划捆绑欧洲等）在全球收割了大量的优质资产。而在资产价格大幅上涨的背景下，美国资本自然得到了极为明显的扩张。以2021年的福布斯排行榜为例，2021年美国顶尖富豪的资产开始大幅的扩张，资产总量大多出现了两位数的增长。这，也是美国对全球优质资产的第一轮收割。3、第二轮收割——收紧货币，加强美元购买力，获得结汇优势2022年3月后，美联储开启“疯狂”的加息进程，截至目前已经累计加息了300BP。在美国疯狂的加息下，美元指数出现大幅的上涨。前不久，美元指数突破114点大关，较其低点上涨了27.67%。为什么说美元指数的大幅走强是美国收割全球的第二轮呢？美元的大幅升值将导致美国出口商品时，其他国家需要用更多的资产（货币）来兑换，且美国可以通过更少的货币去进口海外的优质资源。以2021年为例，美国进出口商品总额高达5.95万亿美元，美元指数的大幅变动将导致美国在结汇上获取大约1.64万亿美元的汇兑收益。4、第三轮收割——周而复始，美国抄底全球的时机逼近众所周知，全球进入加息周期后，资产的泡沫将被戳破，且由于货币政策大多是预后管理，即存在较强的滞后性，所以紧缩的货币政策会导致资产价格超跌，使得其价格表现在一定程度内低于其真实的实际价值。美国，作为全球加息周期的始作俑者，其对于加息周期的经常存在较强的影响力。这也就是说，美国以及美国的投资者能够最便捷的找到抄底全球资产的时机，叠加美元的高流动性下，美国抄底资产的便捷性也明显强于其他国家。在历史上，美国已经通过这样加息-降息的手段，已经在全球“薅”了两次羊毛：拉美失去的十年——1970年，美联储实行低利率政策刺激投资与就业，导致美元贬值，通胀压力高企（大滞胀时期）。部分拉美国家趁机借入大量低利息的美元，投资石油开发，导致其外债规模不断膨胀。1980年美联储突然开启加息周期（沃尔克时代），美元升值，石油价格下跌，拉美国家一下子掉进了美元的陷阱。1982年8月，墨西哥率先爆发债务危机，随后大量拉美国家相继遭遇还债困难，80年代也因此被称作拉美地区“失去的十年”。东南亚金融危机——1990年，东南亚地区经济繁荣发展，在美联储操纵下，大量融资流入东南亚，多国出现经济过热的现象。随后在1994到1995年间，美联储在13个月的时间里接连七次加息。强势美元使大量资本回流美国，成为触发1997到1998年东南亚金融危机的关键因素。1997年7月泰铢大幅贬值，随后冲击波很快蔓延开来，东南亚国家付出了惨痛的代价才从此次动荡中恢复过来。5、美元在国际市场上的影响仍较大从美元自身来看：其各项指标占全全球总量的比重均在40%以上，其中外汇交易以及外汇储备的比重更是高达85%和61%。美元在金融市场上的高占比，是美元霸权的根基。从经济情况来看：美国目前仍是全球第一大经济体，据世界银行数据，2020年美国GDP比重占全球的24.72%（中国为17.37%）。较强的经济实力，是美元霸权的基础。从军事实力来看：美国是全球军费开支最高的国家，2021年军费开支达8000亿美元，明显高于其他国家。此外，据人民网报道，2014年美国在海外军事基地便高达598处，遍及六大洲、四大洋，辐射全球40个国家。强大的军事实力是美元霸权的重要保障。超高的美债将全球主要的经济体捆绑在一起，进一步加强美元的地位。截至目前美债总额已上升至31.15万亿美元，甚至超过了美国的GDP总额。其中，中日欧是美债的重要持有方，截至7月末，合计持有3.55万亿。所以，整体来看，虽然美国利用美元霸权收割全球的行径令人作呕，但仍然不得不承认，目前仍然是全球最主要的结算货币，美元霸权的基础尚没有动摇。6、逆美元化势在必行天下苦美元久矣！逆美元化可能将成为未来国际市场的共识：从历史来看，货币的霸权并非不可颠覆——众所周知，第一次工业革命后，英国成为了全球最强大的国家，号称“日不落帝国”，当时英国对全球经济的掌控较目前的美国有过之而无不及——通过殖民统治控制了全球20%以上的人口以及25%以上的土地，经济体量占全球的70%以上，黄金储备量占全球的80%以上。但在二战后，随着英国国力的衰弱以及美国的崛起，美元才取代英镑成为全球主要的结算货币。从当前情况来看，全球各主要国家均在开始减持美元，据IMF统计，截至2022Q2，全球官方美元储备为66523亿美元，较其高点（2021Q3）下降了4402亿美元。是据统计以来，各国政府减持美元力度最大的一次，反映“去美元化”已经逐步成为国际市场的共识。美国继续收割全球的美梦，或许该醒醒了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":47,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":13,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.38.0","shortVersion":"4.38.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1165840458","isCrawlerRequest":true}