SPDB International released a research report, initiating coverage on MINIEYE (02431) with a "Buy" rating. The target price is set at HK$19.3, implying a potential upside of 30%, which corresponds to a target price-to-sales ratio of 4.2x for 2026E. In the first three quarters of 2025, local Chinese intelligent driving Tier 1 suppliers collectively captured over half of the intelligent driving domain controller market share. Looking ahead in the Chinese market, domestic manufacturers are expected to continue competing intensely, with the key differentiator being their capability for large-scale commercial deployment. The main viewpoints of SPDB International are as follows.
The report initiates coverage on the intelligent driving Tier 1 industry with an "Overweight" rating. As the core component for enabling autonomous driving functions, the intelligent driving domain controller market is expanding rapidly. According to Frost & Sullivan, the global market size for passenger vehicle intelligent driving domain controllers is projected to reach RMB 428.4 billion by 2029, with China accounting for nearly 40% of this share. MINIEYE is the top pick within the intelligent driving Tier 1 sector. Going forward, Tier 1 suppliers that can iteratively improve algorithms to ensure solution performance, gain continuous project nominations by deeply understanding customer needs, and drive sustained mass production through comprehensive services are more likely to emerge as industry leaders. Chinese domestic Tier 1 suppliers are also poised to leverage their technological积累, R&D efficiency, and cost advantages from scaled production to enter broader international markets.
MINIEYE strategically deploys both driving and cockpit domain business lines, enabling comprehensive vehicle intelligence. Policy-driven functional standardization and initiatives for "autonomous driving democratization" by independent automakers are fueling the company's rapid growth. In the driving domain, the company implements a gradual iteration strategy through its mass-produced iSafety and iPilot solutions. The ongoing rollout of regulations mandating standard AEB (Autonomous Emergency Braking) functionality is expected to drive growth in iSafety shipments. Simultaneously, as a mass-production player in driving domain controllers, MINIEYE's iPilot solution, based on domestic chips, aligns well with the "autonomous driving democratization" needs of independent automakers, potentially expanding its client base. In the cockpit domain, the company's continuously evolving DMS (Driver Monitoring System) products are positioned to broaden its customer reach and order scale alongside the implementation of mandatory standardization regulations. Furthermore, the intelligent assistant BamBam, launched leveraging large model capabilities, is expected to enhance the value proposition of the cockpit business. Revenue from the company's intelligent components and solutions is forecast to maintain rapid growth through 2026.
MINIEYE is pioneering the implementation of L4 closed-loop scenarios, with unmanned logistics vehicles achieving rapid commercial progress and rapidly expanding delivery volumes. Leveraging its full-stack in-house R&D capabilities and experience in automotive-grade mass production, the company is promoting innovative applications of its L4 autonomous driving solution, iRobo, across diverse scenarios. On one hand, its unmanned shuttle completed its first project deployment in February 2025, and the accumulating project portfolio is expected to contribute steadily to revenue. On the other hand, MINIEYE has quickly entered the unmanned delivery sector. Its XiaoZhu unmanned vehicle can share supply chain resources with front-load mass production projects, strengthening its cost-performance advantage; the company's automotive-grade experience also ensures the reliability of XiaoZhu. Since its launch, the XiaoZhu unmanned vehicle has secured密集 orders and is projected to achieve a delivery scale of ten thousand units by 2026, rapidly becoming a significant revenue source for the company. Looking forward, if the unmanned vehicle business model continues to be validated, MINIEYE's valuation potential could be further unlocked.
Investment risks include a weaker macroeconomic environment leading to soft vehicle market demand; ongoing完善 of laws and regulations, with tightening supervision potentially slowing the adoption rate of autonomous driving below expectations; delays in mass production schedules for downstream customer models or lower-than-expected consumer willingness to pay; intensifying industry competition and further price wars that could pressure profit margins; and slower-than-anticipated growth in demand for unmanned logistics vehicles.
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