Analysis of the Gold Price Trajectory: On September 23, the gold market completed a bullish reversal after a sharp intraday plunge, followed by a rapid recovery. This pullback does not indicate a weakening trend; rather, it represents a typical bear-trap shakeout within an uptrend, a coiling phase building energy for the next advance.
On the fundamental front, there are budding prospects for U.S.-Iran negotiations. Should the talks proceed smoothly and the Strait of Hormuz blockade be lifted, crude oil prices are likely to come under pressure and retreat. That chain of events would further cool inflation, weaken expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, and lay solid fundamental groundwork for subsequent gains in gold. Additionally, as the UN General Assembly may release fresh news regarding Middle East tensions, there is ample room for bullish catalysts to develop, meaning upward momentum could trigger at any moment.
Looking at recent trading rhythm, the overall structure remains an oscillating uptrend, but the intensity of the shakeout is severe, making the market highly unpredictable. On Monday, the gold price first dipped and then rallied, holding firm above the 4,340 support. On Tuesday, the same pattern repeated: the price tested a low of 4,291, briefly breaking and fake-breaking the 4,300 mark; once that bear trap was fully set, the price surged back up to the 4,370 zone. The primary reason behind these two days of rapid declines and rebounds, with repeated long and short wicks, is the absence of major economic data catalysts. The market is entirely sentiment-driven: sellers lack sustained momentum, while buyers have no fresh capital influx, causing the price to whip back and forth, creating a taxing environment. Nonetheless, the core ascending structure remains fully intact.
After the V-shaped reversal on the short-term hourly chart, the gold price has returned to a broad range-bound pattern, and the bulls have regained control of the market, tilting the short-term outlook in their favor. For intraday operations, the strategy relies on the support level for long positions, with a key entry zone to buy on dips found between 4,320 and 4,330. The pivotal downside defense sits at 4,300; as long as this support does not break decisively, the current base-building structure remains valid, and favorable news headlines can then trigger the next rebound rally.
On the larger technical timeframe, the clear line of demarcation lies at the daily Bollinger Band mid-line of 4,400, which serves as the ultimate watershed between bullish and bearish strength. Until the price convincingly holds above 4,400, the market will continue to trade in a sideways range, with pullback shakeouts remaining possible at any time. Once a breakout with volume above 4,400 is confirmed, the consolidation phase will end entirely, and gold will open its one-way uptrend channel, with the next upside target set directly at the 4,550 area. On the four-hour chart, the range is clearly defined, with the metal stuck in the 4,320 to 4,400 core channel, which is also the most reliable trading range of late: above 4,320, it is preferable to play the corrective rebound; near 4,400, short positions can be considered on the ceiling of resistance. Overall, the trading plan is clear: hold longs at lows, and short lightly at range highs.
In summary, gold has fully completed its coiling shakeout phase, and the major trend remains bullish. The current sideways movement is merely a pause awaiting a directional breakout. Given the trading cadence, Wednesday and Thursday are the most likely windows for a range breakout. All eyes are on the 4,400 key resistance level: a confirmed breakout calls for following the one-way long trend; otherwise, continue operating within the range until a clear signal emerges.
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