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Alasdair Macleod, a precious metals expert and Head of Research at Goldmoney, who in July 2025, when gold was consolidating around $3,300, predicted that "gold is about to surge by $1,000," and three months later the price accurately reached his forecast of $4,300, shares his views. The following are his comments from a media interview this week, transcribed by Wall Street Intelligence Circle from the recording: Friday was nothing short of a massacre, but we must view it within the proper context.
First, fundamentally, nothing has changed.
Second, the level of speculation in the gold and silver futures markets is actually very low. Hedge funds and speculators are not deeply involved in this rally. Certainly, a few players are in the market, but their numbers are extremely limited.
So why did such a sudden plunge occur this week?
The reason lies with the expiration of the February COMEX contract. If the price had remained at last week's and Monday morning's highs at expiration, it would have caused swap dealers and bullion banks holding short positions to face devastating losses.
On Monday, the day before the options expiration, they aggressively drove the price down. The sole purpose was to manage that expiry event. Once this risk was neutralized, for the rest of the week, gold and silver prices began to rebound, even hitting new all-time highs on Thursday morning. And Thursday marked the first day the February contract officially entered the "delivery period." In the COMEX market, at this point, you must either close your position, roll it over, or opt for physical delivery. Once you receive a delivery notice from the counterparty, you are obligated to come up with a substantial amount of actual metal immediately. However, most participants are not there for delivery. Consequently, a panic-driven exodus ensued.
Another critical factor is that when this Friday's sell-off occurred, China was already asleep. By the time New York opened, China was completely absent from the market, and even when London opened, China was not present. This gave them complete freedom to manipulate the market, allowing them to push the price to whatever level they desired. All of this was accomplished on relatively light trading volume. The data point I am most focused on is how much open interest was washed out; I anticipate gold's open interest will fall back to just over 400,000 contracts, which is a clear oversold level. This was a thorough "cleansing."
But we must also consider the deeper context. This rally is not being driven by the London spot market, nor by COMEX itself. The genuine demand is originating from Asia, particularly China. China's household savings rate is approximately 35%, equating to about $6 trillion in new savings annually. This money is deposited into banks, and Chinese banks simultaneously offer a product: gold accumulation accounts. Chinese residents are continuously buying gold through these accounts. At the same time, they are also buying silver—primarily for industrial and physical delivery purposes, often in the form of silver coins and small bars. In the West, silver is often viewed as "small change," but this is not the case in China.
China was on a silver standard until 1935, and Asia holds a "monetary sentiment" towards silver. In the West, people hoard old silver coins hoping to sell them to pawn shops or jewelers for a profit, but due to high price volatility and limited refining capacity, it's actually very difficult to truly absorb this silver. Asia, however, maintains robust demand, which is why a persistent high premium exists for silver on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
Returning to gold.
I believe China's perspective on the US dollar is shifting; they are preparing more actively for a devaluation of the dollar.
Recent geopolitical changes: the situation in Venezuela, Europe's stance, Trump's proposal to "purchase Greenland"—these have greatly displeased major holders of US Treasury debt. I anticipate the US Treasury will face significant difficulties financing medium to long-term debt, forcing yields higher. This is a clear negative for the stock market, as equity valuations are already far above levels sustainable by long-term bond yields.
This is a genuine structural shock; it is a war against the US dollar, and it is already underway. Those who truly understand this realize that it's not that gold and silver are rising, but that the US dollar is falling. Therefore, volatility will be extreme. The answer is actually quite simple: this is a golden opportunity to swap credit assets for "real money." But I would wager that very few dare to do so, because the market is currently filled with fear.
But I can tell you one thing: the bottom of every sell-off is formed when "everyone is extremely fearful."
The great bull market in crude oil has already begun. It's still just an infant, which implies significant upside as oil moves from the $60s towards $90. Furthermore, I believe $90 is only the first leg of the move.
Silver is in utter capitulation mode and is likely near a bottom. Of course, it could potentially fall a bit further.
We'll see next week. Don't lose heart; this is a long-term bull market.
Our targets are: Crude Oil: $369 Gold: $48,000 Silver? Who knows, it might soar into the stratosphere—thousands of dollars? Even higher?
Hold on. Don't be frightened. Risk Disclaimer: The above content is provided for informational purposes only as general information.
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