According to Woofun AI, the cryptocurrency market experienced severe turbulence on Sunday night, with the Bitcoin price plummeting to $73,708, marking a new low since August, while Ethereum also dropped to $2,100.
This wave of selling was not an isolated event but the result of multiple bearish factors converging: within 24 hours, total market liquidations reached $855.69 million, forcing over 140,000 traders to close their positions, with long positions bearing 90.2% of the losses, highlighting the vulnerability of leveraged longs during price declines.
Delving into the market structure, data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the current price has fallen below the short-term holder cost basis of approximately $75,700 estimated by Glassnode, meaning that investors who recently entered are generally at a loss, and potential selling pressure could be released at any time.
Even more concerning is the liquidity drought in the spot market. Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $1.28 billion, with $411.9 million withdrawn on Friday alone, of which BlackRock (BLK.US)'s IBIT (IBIT.US) product contributed $403 million in outflows.
This indicates that selling pressure has gone beyond the scope of derivatives leverage, spot buyers have almost lost their willingness to buy, and the rebound that previously relied on futures leverage quickly collapsed in Sunday's liquidation.
On the macroeconomic front, the Nasdaq index fell 5.5% on Thursday due to concerns over artificial intelligence valuations and regulatory uncertainty. The Democrats' victory in the midterm elections further blurred the prospects for crypto legislation, while the recent $6 billion Binance hack completely shattered the bottom line of market confidence.
From the dual dimensions of technical and capital flows, if Bitcoin wants to reverse its decline, it must reclaim the $75,700 level and rise back to the $77,000 to $80,000 range to repair bullish sentiment. Otherwise, $70,000 will become a critical long-term support level.
The performance of the U.S. stock market after the open on Monday and subsequent ETF fund flows will become the core variables determining whether the downtrend continues. The biggest risk currently facing the market is the superposition of multiple pressures and the lack of sustained buying intervention. Without external positive catalysts, the price may repeatedly grind at the bottom until a new equilibrium is formed.
Comments