Citigroup has issued a research report maintaining a "Buy" rating for Swire Properties (01972) while increasing its target price from HK$23.8 to HK$28.8, representing a 45% discount to net asset value. The bank believes Swire Properties' commitment to mid-single-digit dividend per share growth is supported by several fundamental factors: 1) Strong retail same-store sales growth in mainland China is driving positive rental reversion, benefiting from tenant renewals and asset enhancements aimed at capturing market share; 2) In terms of new investment properties, forecasted gross floor area is expected to grow 27% and 40% year-on-year in 2026 and 2027, respectively, driving rental growth through leasing synergies; 3) A robust balance sheet with a gearing ratio of 15% provides ample flexibility to support capital expenditure for its HK$100 billion strategic investment plan; 4) Forecasted earnings growth in 2026 and 2027, driven by moderate rental increases and significant recognition of development property sales. The bank views these positive factors as sufficient to cushion the impact of negative rental adjustments expected in Hong Kong's office market due to new supply competition in 2026 and 2027. With a well-planned succession arrangement for the CFO, the bank anticipates consistent capital allocation strategies aimed at creating long-term value.
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