Spot gold traded with a slight uptick early Friday in the Asian session, currently hovering around $4,251 per ounce.
On Thursday, August 6, gold prices saw an initial surge but later retreated, briefly extending Wednesday's gains to hit a high of $4,303.90 per ounce—the highest level since June 18—before pulling back to a low of $4,223 per ounce, eventually closing at $4,240.55 per ounce, down 0.15%. U.S. gold futures settled at $4,291.30, marking a 0.3% decline.
The pattern of an initial rally followed by a sharp decline goes beyond simple technical correction, reflecting a clash of three major forces: geopolitical tensions, energy market dynamics, and evolving Federal Reserve policy expectations. The market stands at a critical juncture: Iran's parliament is reviewing a draft bill to ban "hostile" vessels from the Strait of Hormuz, directly pushing oil prices higher and rekindling inflation concerns. At the same time, the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday will serve as a core variable in determining the Fed's interest rate path and the medium-term direction of gold.
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold faced resistance near the $4,304 mark yesterday, failing to hold above the $4,300 level, closing with a doji candle, which suggests potential for a pullback during the day. On the daily chart, prices have broken out of a previous narrow range, with short-term moving averages maintaining an upward trajectory, pointing to a relatively bullish trend. The focus is on whether a secondary rally can follow a retracement, with the support zone around $4,180 to $4,200.
On the 4-hour chart, moving averages are beginning to slope downward, and prices are trending below short-term averages, indicating a weaker bias. While gold found support near $4,220, the rebound has been modest, raising the risk of a minor breakdown and further declines. On the 1-hour chart, gold has been declining steadily after the initial spike, now trading below $4,250. The immediate support is at $4,220; a break below this level would likely overturn the intraday bullish momentum, accelerating a drop toward the $4,200 to $4,160 range. Caution is advised ahead of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data release at 8:30 p.m. ET, which could trigger significant volatility and directly influence Fed policy signals.
In summary, the recommended trading strategy for gold today is to prioritize buying on dips for long positions, supplemented by selling on rallies for short positions. Key resistance levels to watch are $4,310 to $4,340 in the short term, while support levels are in the $4,240 to $4,210 range.
Crude Oil Market Overview
Early Friday in the Asian session, U.S. crude oil rose, trading around $78.11 per barrel. Oil prices surged more than 4% on Wednesday, buoyed by comments from former President Trump that a deal on the Strait of Hormuz has not yet been reached, and by Iran's proposal to ban vessels from hostile nations from transiting the waterway, reigniting fears of Middle East supply disruptions. Thursday's trading saw a sharp uptick, with Brent crude climbing 5.18% to settle at $83.51 per barrel, and U.S. crude rising 4.2% to $78.23 per barrel. The rally was driven by news that an Iranian parliamentary committee is reviewing a draft bill to ban vessels from the U.S., Israel, and other "hostile" countries from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with fines of up to 20% of cargo value for violations, stoking concerns about interruptions to Middle Eastern oil shipping routes.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, moving averages are turning upward, altering the medium-term bearish trend. K-line patterns show a series of consecutive upward reversals, indicating strong bullish momentum. While a new directional trend has yet to be established, the bearish phase appears to have ended, suggesting that the medium-term outlook is now primarily supportive of a rebound. On the 1-hour chart, crude oil found support after a period of low-range consolidation and has since reversed to the upside, with moving averages now in a bullish alignment and supporting prices. The short-term trend is upward. Early Asian trade continues the rebound, with bullish momentum gaining strength. The expectation is for crude oil to maintain its upward trajectory in the near term.
In summary, the recommended trading approach for crude oil today is to focus on buying on dips while selling on rallies as a secondary strategy. Key resistance levels to watch are $80.0 to $82.0 in the short term, with support levels at $76.0 to $74.0.
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