Abstract
ConocoPhillips will release its fourth-quarter results on February 05, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview synthesizes company guidance, recent quarterly performance, segment dynamics, and consensus expectations to frame potential revenue, margin, and adjusted EPS outcomes with year-over-year context.
Market Forecast
Based on the company’s latest forecast dataset, ConocoPhillips’ current quarter revenue estimate is USD 14.19 billion with an estimated year-over-year decline of 0.76%, an implied gross profit margin outlook not explicitly provided, a net profit trajectory guided by margin sensitivity to commodity prices, and an estimated adjusted EPS of USD 1.11 with a year-over-year decline of 39.43%. The company’s current quarter EBIT estimate is USD 2.54 billion with an estimated year-over-year decline of 30.56%. The main business is anchored by Sales and Other Operating revenue, with outlook tied to crude and natural gas price realizations, volume mix, and planned turnarounds; the most promising near-term driver remains liquids-rich production uplift from core North American assets, supported by disciplined capital deployment.
The most promising segment by recent traction is Sales and Other Operating, which contributed USD 15.03 billion last quarter; the quarter’s update suggests portfolio optimization and liquids weighting could support resilience even as headline prices fluctuate.
Last Quarter Review
ConocoPhillips reported last quarter revenue of USD 15.52 billion, a gross profit margin of 44.79%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 1.73 billion, a net profit margin of 11.23%, and adjusted EPS of USD 1.61 with a year-over-year decline of 9.55%. Quarter-on-quarter, GAAP net profit declined by 12.43%.
A key highlight was adjusted EPS of USD 1.61, exceeding the company’s tracked estimate of USD 1.43. Main business highlights show Sales and Other Operating revenue at USD 15.03 billion, Affiliate Interest Income at USD 0.35 billion, and Other at USD 0.14 billion, reflecting the portfolio’s weighting to liquids sales and steady affiliate contributions.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business: Sales and Other Operating
Sales and Other Operating is the core revenue engine, having generated USD 15.03 billion last quarter out of USD 15.52 billion total revenue. The current quarter’s revenue estimate of USD 14.19 billion reflects modest sequential softening, consistent with price realizations and typical seasonality. With a last-quarter gross margin of 44.79% and net margin of 11.23%, margin outcomes this quarter will hinge on the commodity mix, differentials, and operating cost discipline. Volumes from North American liquids and LNG-linked gas exposure are expected to provide stability, but any price volatility in Brent/WTI spreads or Henry Hub could alter realized margins, especially given the sensitivity of adjusted EPS to both price and volume. Operational turnarounds and maintenance activity can temporarily reduce throughput, yet these are typically scheduled to minimize revenue impact. The company’s ongoing optimization initiatives—such as streamlining operating expenses and enhancing well productivity—are likely to support gross margin resiliency even as revenues track a slight year-over-year downtick.
Most Promising Business: Liquids-Weighted Production Uplift
While the company reports main business revenues under Sales and Other Operating, the most promising growth driver in the near term is liquids-weighted production uplift across core shale and unconventional assets. Liquids generally deliver higher margins than dry gas, helping defend profitability when natural gas prices soften. The forecasted adjusted EPS of USD 1.11, though lower year over year, could still find upside if liquids realizations outperform the embedded assumptions; EBIT estimated at USD 2.54 billion also indicates the operating base remains robust despite a softer pricing backdrop. Execution on drilling and completions, together with continued capital discipline, is key to maintaining production efficiency. Any incremental gains in well productivity or lower lease operating expenses can materially enhance unit-level profitability, partially offsetting commodity headwinds. In addition, portfolio optimization—selective asset sales and redeployment to higher-return projects—can improve the aggregate margin profile, underpinning earnings stability.
Stock Price Drivers: Commodity Price Path, Differentials, and Capital Allocation
The dominant driver for the stock this quarter is the commodity price path for crude oil and natural gas, including spreads such as Brent-WTI and regional differentials that affect realized prices. A narrow differential and favorable benchmark prices can lift both revenue and margins; conversely, volatility around macro and geopolitical factors may inject uncertainty into realized prices and guidance. Cost structure and operating efficiency are also central—last quarter’s 44.79% gross margin points to solid control, and sustained cost discipline can preserve profitability even if revenues soften. Capital allocation decisions—including buybacks, dividend actions, and selective asset transactions—shape investor perception of return on capital; the prior quarter’s adjusted EPS beat versus estimate suggests management’s operational execution remains productive, and similar outcomes this quarter could stabilize sentiment. Any updates on gas-linked exposures and LNG-related offtake arrangements may influence the forward margin trajectory, as gas markets are inherently seasonal and subject to global supply-demand shifts.
Analyst Opinions
The majority of recent institutional commentary has been bullish. Buy ratings were reaffirmed by Morgan Stanley with a USD 117.00 price target, Piper Sandler with a USD 115.00 price target, Barclays with a USD 118.00 price target, TD Cowen with a USD 120.00 price target, and Evercore ISI with a USD 115.00 price target, while Wells Fargo maintained a Hold rating and J.P. Morgan’s latest sector view adjusted price targets with a mixed stance. The ratio of bullish to bearish/neutral commentary in the last six months is predominantly bullish, with Buy-oriented notes outnumbering Hold and Underweight views. Morgan Stanley highlighted operational execution and capital returns; Piper Sandler emphasized portfolio quality and liquids leverage; Barclays pointed to efficiency and cash generation capability; TD Cowen cited strong recent performance and strategic asset sales supporting the investment case; and Evercore ISI underscored disciplined capital deployment. These perspectives converge on resilient operations, a favorable liquids mix, and prudent capital allocation, suggesting that despite a forecast for lower adjusted EPS and EBIT year over year, institutional expectations skew toward constructive outcomes supported by operational quality and balance sheet strength.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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