On the evening of April 16, Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. (600519.SH) released its 2025 annual report. The figures were stark: revenue of 168.838 billion yuan, down 1.21% year-on-year, and net profit of 82.32 billion yuan, down 4.53% year-on-year. This marks the first annual decline in both revenue and net profit since the company's listing in 2001, ending a 24-year streak of growth.
When trading commenced on April 17, Moutai's stock price opened over 4% lower, falling below 1,400 yuan during the session. A more symbolic event occurred at 10:47 AM when optical chip company Yuanjie Technology's share price rose to 1,445 yuan, surpassing Moutai to become the A-share market's new highest-priced stock.
A Sharp Decline in the Fourth Quarter An analysis of Moutai's quarterly data reveals the core issue occurred in the fourth quarter of 2025. Q4 revenue was 41.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.35% year-on-year, while net profit was 17.693 billion yuan, down 30.34% year-on-year. The poor performance in a single quarter erased all growth achieved in the first three quarters.
The market was not entirely unprepared. In December of the previous year, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai had fallen to approximately 1,500 yuan, a five-year low. Faced with price inversion pressure, Moutai took an unusual step: halting supply. While rumors circulated that distributors had their shipments stopped, the company officially denied this. By the end of March, the wholesale price for a case of Feitian Moutai had recovered to 1,655 yuan, with individual bottles at 1,565 yuan, representing a premium of only 26 to 116 yuan over the official guide price of 1,539 yuan—the narrowest margin in history.
Shift in Channel Power In 2025, Moutai's direct sales revenue reached 84.543 billion yuan, an increase of 12.96% year-on-year, while wholesale agency revenue was 84.232 billion yuan, down 12.05% year-on-year. The proportion of direct sales exceeded 50% for the first time, reaching 50.09%. This is a landmark shift.
Over the past two decades, Moutai relied on its distributor network to build a national presence, with distributors hoarding inventory, speculating, and maintaining price expectations. Now, the company is actively dismantling this system. The "i Moutai" platform is the core instrument of this change. On January 1, 2026, the 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai was listed on i Moutai at the official guide price of 1,499 yuan per bottle, with daily timed releases. This was the first time Feitian was sold directly to consumers at the official price, bypassing distributor markups.
However, the 2025 data for i Moutai was not encouraging. Online sales revenue was 13.031 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.92% year-on-year. While platform traffic remained strong, consumer demand was concentrated solely on Feitian. The series liquors and non-standard products promoted by Moutai saw weak sales, raising questions about the independent viability of its series liquors, given the brand's power is highly concentrated in the Feitian single product. In 2025, revenue from Moutai's series liquors was 22.275 billion yuan, down 9.76% year-on-year, with the average selling price declining by 13%. Products like Moutai 1935 and Han Sauce saw decent sales in the 600-700 yuan price range but could not offset the overall decline.
The New Leader's "Market-Oriented" Experiment In October 2025, Chen Hua assumed the role of Chairman of Moutai, becoming the fourth leader in five years. Upon taking office, he stated that Moutai would not be "solely focused on targets." This philosophy was reflected in the Q4 2025 financial results, where short-term performance was sacrificed to maintain price system stability.
Chen Hua's reform path is becoming clearer: reclaiming pricing power, with dynamic adjustments to self-operated retail prices—the ex-factory price for Feitian was raised from 969 yuan to 1,169 yuan at the end of March, and the self-operated retail price increased from 1,499 yuan to 1,539 yuan; restructuring sales channels by establishing a multi-dimensional system combining direct sales, distribution, agency sales, and consignment, making distributors perform based on capability and results; and focusing the product portfolio, eliminating the bundled sales of non-standard products with Feitian, and forming a "pyramid" strategy with core products like精品 Moutai, Feitian, and Moutai 1935.
An institutional investor who has long tracked Moutai analyzed, "Distributors were forced to accept a pile of slow-moving series liquors to get allocations of Feitian. Now, with the bundling canceled, the series liquors have to find their own market, which will inevitably put short-term performance under pressure."
Cash Flow Warning More noteworthy than the profit decline is the deterioration in cash flow. In 2025, Moutai's net cash flow from operating activities was 61.5 billion yuan, down 33% year-on-year. Contractual liabilities (advance receipts) stood at 8 billion yuan, down 16.7% from 9.6 billion yuan in 2024.
Moutai's response was to increase its dividend payout. The cash dividend for 2025 totaled 65.033 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 79%, a record high. Combined with 6.12 billion yuan in share repurchases, the total shareholder return ratio reached 86.43%. While the high dividend signals stability, it also suggests the company lacks better uses for its capital and is returning excess cash to shareholders.
Two Possibilities Market views on Moutai's prospects for 2026 are clearly divided. Optimists point to potential reform benefits: Q1 Feitian allocations on i Moutai are nearing 8,000 tons, which could drive positive growth in the Q1 report; the price increase is expected to directly contribute approximately 3 billion yuan in revenue and 1.7 billion yuan in profit; and with a stabilized price system, latent consumer demand might be activated.
Pessimists see structural constraints: demographic changes are shrinking the core consumer base for baijiu; reduced business entertainment scenarios are weakening Moutai's role as a "social currency"; and the entire high-end baijiu sector is entering a cycle of "squeezing bubbles and reducing inventory," from which Moutai is unlikely to emerge unscathed.
"The certainty of Moutai lies in its brand moat," said a private equity fund manager. "But the certainty of growth has diminished. It was once a 'growth' stock with 20% annual increases; now it's a 'value' stock with low growth and high dividends. Investors need to adjust their expectations."
Yuanjie Technology replacing Moutai as the highest-priced stock is, to some extent, a metaphor for the shift in A-share investment themes—from traditional consumption towards hard technology and AI computing power. Nevertheless, Moutai's market capitalization of 1.83 trillion yuan, net profit of 82.3 billion yuan, and gross margin of 91% remain among the most solid foundations in the A-share market.
The end of the 24-year growth myth is not a terminus, but a starting point. Moutai's next phase depends on how far Chen Hua's "market-oriented" reforms can go, and on a more fundamental question: when baijiu is no longer seen as "liquid gold," what else can Moutai become?
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