Data collected over the past 24 hours by the Liquor Price Index indicates that on March 18, the average terminal retail prices of major Chinese baijiu products continued to show divergent trends. If one bottle of each major product were bundled for sale, the total price today would be 10,565 yuan, a slight increase of 7 yuan from the previous day, indicating a weak rebound from low levels. Market prices are undergoing a low-level correction, with short-term movements likely to remain within a range-bound adjustment pattern.
Price movements among major baijiu products were mixed. On the upside, Yanghe's Dream Blue M6+ and Xijiao Junpin led the gains, each rising by 5 yuan per bottle, suggesting a recovery in channel transactions. Gujing Gongjiu Gu 20 increased by 3 yuan per bottle. Wuliangye普五第八代, Fenjiu's Qinghua Fen 20, and Luzhou Laojiao's国窖1573 each rose by 2 yuan per bottle. On the downside, Premium Moutai and Flying Moutai declined by 4 yuan and 3 yuan per bottle, respectively. Wuliangye 1618 and Qinghualang each decreased by 2 yuan per bottle. The price of Crystal Jiannanchun remained unchanged from the previous period.
The daily data for the Liquor Price Index is sourced from approximately 200 collection points reasonably distributed across major regions nationwide. These points include, but are not limited to, designated distributors of liquor companies, independent distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The raw sample data consists of the actual terminal retail transaction prices processed at each point over the past 24 hours, aiming to provide objective, scientific, and fully traceable data on the market prices of renowned baijiu products for the public. Following the official iMoutai platform's commencement of sales for Flying Moutai at 1,499 yuan per bottle around New Year's Day and Premium Moutai at 2,299 yuan per bottle on January 9, the gravitational pull of this new sales channel on the average terminal retail prices of these two products has gradually become apparent. The daily liquor prices published by the Liquor Price Index adhere to a calculation rule weighted by real transaction volume, and the quantifiable prices from these new channels have been incorporated into the calculation of the terminal retail prices for Flying Moutai and Premium Moutai.
Regarding stock analysis within the baijiu sector, Shenwan Hongyuan Securities released a research report maintaining a "Buy" rating on Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd., citing the recent implementation of a consignment policy for personalized products, which promotes the deepening of market-oriented reforms. The report's positive outlook on Moutai is based on its strong brand moat, excellent business model, and multi-dimensional reform initiatives advancing into 2026, which are expected to unlock medium to long-term growth potential for the company. In terms of profit forecasts, net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is estimated at 90.5 billion yuan, 95.0 billion yuan, and 101.5 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 20x, 19x, and 18x for those years. The report notes that the recent consignment policy for personalized products ensures product ownership remains with the company, significantly reducing channel funding pressure, helping to stabilize product prices, and encouraging distributors with genuine customer resources to shift from pursuing high per-bottle profits to a high-turnover model, thereby enhancing overall channel efficiency. This adjustment signifies Moutai's transition towards a multi-dimensional collaborative marketing system encompassing direct sales, distribution, consignment, and bailment.
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