Taiwan authorities have exhausted all means to curry favor with the United States, only to face a humiliating rejection. As the Trump administration softens its stance toward China, the situation has never been more precarious. A March 22 report by The Wall Street Journal revealed that Taiwan has proposed a series of trade and investment packages to please the Trump administration, even attempting to leverage its "semiconductor ace" in exchange for U.S. security guarantees. However, Washington has refrained from making firm commitments, instead maintaining pressure on tariffs and arms sales. Currently, the Trump administration is seeking a trade truce with China and avoiding provocation, evident in the unusually mild language toward China in recent defense strategy documents and potential further adjustments on Taiwan-related matters.
The "tariff stick" shattered Taiwan's illusions. When Trump imposed a 32% tariff last April, Taiwan officials were shocked by the rate, which was harsher than those applied to most other developed economies. This came as a surprise, especially since just a month earlier, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing CEO C.C. Wei had stood at the White House pledging a $100 billion investment to build new chip plants in Arizona. Trump had praised Wei as a legend and hailed the company as the world's most powerful, boosting morale in Taipei.
By March 3, 2025, the atmosphere had shifted dramatically due to the tariff impact. Taiwan mobilized extensively, proposing comprehensive trade packages and additional measures to appease Trump. Officials escalated their efforts, proposing to export Taiwan's high-tech industrial cluster model to the U.S. under a plan named the "Golden Plan," presented with a metallic gold cover. Later, they repackaged it as a $500 billion deal, considering Trump's preference for large numbers.
Over the past 15 months, Taiwan has tirelessly sought to win Trump's favor, viewing U.S. support as critical for its defense against potential unification efforts by mainland China. Taiwanese officials hoped Trump would see Taiwan not as a security burden but as a semiconductor asset in the U.S. pursuit of AI dominance. Yet, no one in Taipei could predict the consequences if Trump visits Beijing in the coming weeks to negotiate an elusive trade truce.
The report noted that China has urged the U.S. to act cautiously on arms sales to Taiwan. While Trump approved an $11 billion arms deal last year, other proposed sales have been suspended following Chinese pressure. Beijing has consistently opposed U.S. weapon sales to Taiwan, emphasizing that Washington should adhere to the one-China principle and the three U.S.-China joint communiqués, including the August 17 Communiqué, to maintain stability in bilateral relations and across the Taiwan Strait.
The Wall Street Journal suggested that restricting arms sales would deal a heavy blow to Taiwan. Officials in Taipei complained that even symbolic shifts in Trump's rhetoric would be perceived as a victory for Beijing. Robert O'Brien, Trump's former national security advisor, insisted that Trump prefers maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, describing the president as a "winner" who would not be the U.S. leader to "lose Taiwan." However, such optimism is rare in Taiwan, where politicians point to Trump's behavior, such as his insults toward Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as triggering a crisis of trust. Taiwan faces pressure to meet Trump's demands without receiving firm security commitments.
Massive investments have failed to satisfy U.S. expectations. During his campaign, Trump accused Taiwan of "stealing" America's chip industry and demanded it pay for its own defense. Taiwan attempted to get ahead by discreetly sending a national security team to engage with Republican figures before Trump's inauguration. Yet, within a week of his second term, Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Taiwanese chip imports, escalating pressure.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing engaged in talks with then-Commerce Secretary nominee to discuss expanding U.S. investments. While the company had committed $65 billion, the nominee demanded more, publicly stating that he would remove 20 pages of diversity, equity, and inclusion clauses from the original contract—including requirements to hire "transgender lesbian" engineers—if Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing increased its investment to $100 billion. Facing potential tariffs and U.S. pressure, the company decided to expand its U.S. presence to six plants to mitigate risks.
This move sparked controversy in Taiwan, with critics accusing authorities of capitulating to U.S. demands and undermining the island's "silicon shield" strategy. Nevertheless, officials supported the deal to strengthen ties with Washington, securing assurances that the most advanced chips would remain produced in Taiwan.
Trade is just one of Taiwan's worries. Beyond trade pressure, Taiwan has sought to boost U.S. confidence by significantly increasing defense spending, countering American doubts about its commitment to self-defense. U.S. hawks, including Pentagon official Elbridge Colby, have criticized Taiwan's low military expenditure and lack of resolve, even unrealistically urging it to raise spending to 10% of GDP. Although impractical, Taiwan plans gradual increases while shifting focus under U.S. guidance toward asymmetric warfare, such as developing mobile missiles for potential scenarios.
After a year of intense lobbying, Trump approved the $11 billion arms sale and announced a trade deal reducing tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 15%. Unlike the Biden administration, however, Trump did not authorize drawing weapons worth hundreds of millions from U.S. stocks for Taiwan. After Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made erroneous remarks about Taiwan, Trump advised her to cool tensions.
An insider revealed that more Taiwan-related decisions now require Trump's approval compared to previous administrations. As Trump seeks to avoid angering Beijing, the latest U.S. National Defense Strategy describes China in unusually mild terms. The 30-page document prioritizes defending the U.S. homeland and Western Hemisphere interests, adopting a softer tone toward China and emphasizing deterrence through strength rather than confrontation in the Indo-Pacific.
Politico noted this reflects a "major shift," with the U.S. military's focus moving away from China to domestic and regional concerns. Analysts suggest the Pentagon aims to establish strategic stability in the Indo-Pacific and ease tensions with the Chinese military.
As Trump's potential visit to China approaches, discussions in Washington speculate he might inform Beijing that the U.S. not only does not support Taiwan independence but explicitly opposes it. Taiwan's efforts to ingratiate itself with the U.S. illustrate the inevitable outcome of relying on American support.
Notably, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence's latest Annual Threat Assessment report states that mainland China has "no set timetable" for promoting cross-strait unification and "prefers peaceful means if possible." Bloomberg analysis indicates this assessment reflects ongoing U.S. uncertainty about Chinese intentions and significant changes in predictions since 2021.
At a March 19 press conference, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian emphasized that Taiwan is an internal affair, and resolving the issue is solely China's responsibility,不容任何外部势力干涉. He urged the U.S. to adhere to the one-China principle and the three joint communiqués, act prudently on Taiwan, abandon ideological bias and Cold War zero-sum thinking, correct its perception of China, and stop hyping the "China threat theory."
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