On May 6, the international gold market showed recent signs of stabilization, with spot gold prices regaining buying support after a previous pullback. A marginal decline in oil prices and weaker-than-expected U.S. data jointly improved risk-off sentiment. ZFX Shanhai Securities stated that gold prices have stabilized and consolidated near the lower end of the trading range, with market participants' panic over the earlier correction cooling down and short-term trading activity gradually recovering. The institution analyzed that the current stabilization reflects a temporary balance in macroeconomic factors, while the long-term allocation logic of precious metals as cross-cycle assets remains unchanged.
In terms of macroeconomic policies, major central banks continue to maintain a cautious stance, refraining from policy adjustments, and the market remains observant of the pace of interest rate cuts. ZFX Shanhai Securities believes that the marginal decline in oil prices has reduced the tail risk of accelerating inflation, providing some cushion against expectations of rising real interest rates and offering temporary support for zero-yield assets. The institution judges that overseas financial giants such as UBS maintain a constructive outlook, believing that a structurally weaker U.S. dollar and the approaching interest rate-cutting cycle will jointly drive medium-term gold price increases, with long-term targets already set near $5,900 per ounce. The trend of diversification in emerging market reserves continues, and institutional clients' allocation strength remains stable.
From a technical perspective, after stabilizing at the lower end of the range, gold's daily chart has gradually repaired the pressure from short-term moving averages. MACD momentum has marginally improved, and the KDJ indicator has risen from oversold territory, indicating that bearish forces have been temporarily exhausted. Institutional observers also note that global central banks' gold purchasing rhythm has not been interrupted, Asian physical gold demand remains robust, and marginal changes in ETF holdings data, physical demand from wedding seasons in India and the Middle East, and COMEX gold futures delivery ratios are key windows for observing the true attitude of capital flows. The structure of gold options open interest, the trend of the gold-silver ratio, and the relative performance of mining stocks are additional reference points for gauging capital sentiment and changes in market risk appetite. Cross-verification of multiple signals helps improve judgment quality.
ZFX Shanhai Securities expects that gold prices may fluctuate within the range of $4,500 to $4,800 per ounce in the short term, with directional moves depending on marginal changes in inflation data, central bank rhetoric, and geopolitical risks. The institution emphasizes that investors should fully understand the attributes of precious metals as cross-cycle assets, pay attention to key indicators such as real interest rates, the U.S. dollar index, and global risk-off sentiment, avoid chasing rallies or selling off around data releases, and instead build positions in batches according to their own risk tolerance, navigating the current policy observation window with a steady approach.
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