On July 8th, gold prices continued to exhibit volatile trading. The session began with a pullback during the Asian session, with prices dipping near 4115 before rebounding. A long position was entered perfectly at 4120. During the US session, the price rallied to the day's high of 4180 dollars, allowing the long position to be closed for a profit. However, prices retraced somewhat in the late session. Gold ultimately closed at 4105 dollars, forming a bearish candlestick on the daily chart.
On Wednesday, July 8th, a Qatari LNG carrier was reportedly attacked near the Strait of Hormuz. The US military subsequently launched a series of strikes in southern Iran, explicitly stating these actions "would not end soon," while also reinstating previously revoked sanctions waivers on Iranian oil. Iran's foreign minister responded, stating that final agreement negotiations would not commence as long as threats persist.
Despite these events, gold prices declined. This illustrates the "counterintuitive logic" often discussed recently: heightened Middle East tensions → rising oil prices → stronger inflation expectations → increased market concern over Fed rate hikes → resulting pressure on gold prices. However, the true focus tonight is not the Middle East, but the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes scheduled for release at 2:00 AM on Thursday.
The market is keenly interested in two key points from the minutes: First, what exactly did officials discuss during the June meeting? Second, is Waller's perceived dovish shift genuine or merely a tactical adjustment? In essence, tonight's minutes serve as crucial evidence for validating whether "rate hike expectations have genuinely softened."
From a technical perspective, gold completed a short-term corrective decline and a technical rebound yesterday, but was ultimately pushed back into a weaker state by market news. Therefore, gold is likely to continue its corrective phase in a consolidative manner today. The hourly chart also suggests conditions are ripe for a directional move, with the impending Fed minutes potentially acting as the catalyst for such a breakout. Intraday resistance is noted around 4130, with support near 4080. Trading will likely oscillate within this range as the market digests information ahead of the Fed minutes, which are expected to provide directional impetus.
Key Considerations for Trading
In summary, the Fed minutes early tomorrow are the core potential trigger for this week's directional move. Prior to their release, prices will likely maintain a wide range between 4085 and 4160. It is advisable to avoid holding significant overnight positions ahead of the minutes. A hawkish tone leading to a break below 4080 could see targets at 4040-4000, where staged buying could be considered. A dovish tone, with prices holding firmly above 4150, could target 4200-4180. Long-term investors may consider waiting for a deeper post-announcement pullback to the 4000-4040 zone for staged positioning, rather than speculating on direction ahead of the news.
Economic Calendar Highlights
Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
22:00 US Wholesale Sales MoM for May
01:00 (Next Day) US 10-Year Treasury Note Auction - High Yield
01:00 (Next Day) US 10-Year Treasury Note Auction - Bid-to-Cover Ratio
02:00 (Next Day) FOMC Meeting Minutes Release
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