At 24:00 on January 20th, China's domestic refined oil products welcomed a new pricing adjustment window, with gasoline and diesel prices both increasing by 85 yuan per ton. This is equivalent to an additional cost of 3.5 yuan to fill a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline. This also marks the first fuel price hike of 2026.
During the current pricing cycle, international oil prices initially rose before falling. In the early phase, influenced by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the situation in Venezuela, crude oil prices climbed consecutively. In the later phase, as tensions eased, long positions were liquidated, leading to a noticeable decline in crude prices. However, overall, the average crude price saw a slight increase.
The Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission believes that the volatile and recurring domestic and international situation in Iran could lead to intensified fluctuations in oil prices. Regarding Venezuela, its crude oil exports have already decreased significantly under long-term sanctions.
The recent US announcement that it will receive tens of millions of barrels of sanctioned Venezuelan crude has heightened market expectations for a long-term increase in supply. However, the US's ongoing regulatory actions targeting related oil tankers indicate the situation remains complex.
The actual pace and scale of the recovery in Venezuela's crude oil exports still carry significant uncertainty, which will continue to unsettle market sentiment. Consequently, some research institutions have analyzed that the multiple supply risks faced by OPEC+ member countries are expected to help stabilize international oil prices above $60 per barrel.
Currently, US crude has already risen to $59, sitting just a step away from the $60 threshold. According to the "ten-working-day" principle, the next adjustment window for refined oil retail price limits is at 24:00 on February 3rd.
Due to the continued supportive factors from the supply side, the probability of another price increase in the next refined oil product adjustment is considered high.
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