The gold market in 2026 is poised to navigate a complex interplay of macroeconomic forces, according to insights shared by Juan Carlos Artigas, CEO of the World Gold Council (WGC) Americas and Global Head of Research. Speaking at the 2025 China (Sanya) International Gold Market Summit, Artigas outlined key drivers and scenarios that could define gold’s trajectory in the coming year.
**2025: A Standout Year for Gold** Gold delivered exceptional performance in 2025, with prices surging over 60% and hitting record highs more than 50 times. This rally was fueled by four core factors: economic expansion, risk and uncertainty, opportunity costs, and momentum. China, as the world’s largest gold producer and consumer, played a pivotal role, with global demand reaching 3,640 tonnes in the first three quarters—a 41% year-on-year increase. Investment demand for gold bars, coins, and ETFs in China was particularly robust.
**Gold’s Evolving Role in Portfolios** Artigas emphasized gold’s dual function as both a safe-haven asset and a strategic portfolio diversifier. "Gold has proven its resilience in volatile macroeconomic conditions, offering stability and value preservation," he noted. Central banks, especially in emerging markets, have increasingly turned to gold, with reserves now accounting for 25% of global foreign exchange holdings (30% in developed economies and 15% in emerging markets).
**2026 Outlook: Four Key Scenarios** The WGC’s *2026 Global Gold Market Outlook* highlights four potential scenarios: 1. **Baseline Stability**: Gold prices may trade within a ±5% range if steady growth and central bank rate cuts align with consensus expectations. 2. **Mild Recession**: A 5–15% price surge could occur if U.S. economic momentum falters and Fed rate cuts deepen. 3. **Deep Contraction**: In a severe global slowdown, gold might rally 15–30% as避险 demand spikes. 4. **Reflation Resurgence**: Stronger-than-expected recovery, rising rates, and dollar strength could pressure gold downward by 5–20%.
**Central Bank Demand as a Catalyst** Emerging market central banks are expected to further increase gold allocations, reinforcing its strategic role in reserve diversification. "Gold’s enduring appeal in an uncertain monetary landscape underscores its irreplaceable position," Artigas concluded. The WGC remains committed to providing data-driven research to support informed investment decisions.
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