Gold's latest market trend analysis: On January 23, a fundamental analysis of gold reveals that spot gold prices broke through the $4900 per ounce mark for the first time on Thursday, January 22, and continued to refresh historical highs. By the early Asian trading session on Friday, January 23, at 07:57, it reached a peak of $4960.43 per ounce. This rally has not only driven precious metals like silver and platinum to record highs but also reflects a strong market reaction to geopolitical uncertainty, a weak US dollar, and the Federal Reserve's accommodative policies. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold has stood out in the current complex international environment, becoming a key focus for investors. Looking ahead, the bull market pattern in gold is expected to continue, but it also faces downside risks. Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast to $5400 per ounce, based on assumptions that the private sector will not liquidate holdings and central banks will continue purchasing gold. Spot gold has already risen nearly 15% from early 2026 levels, extending last year's 64% gain. However, if global monetary policy risks drop sharply, leading to the unwinding of hedge positions, gold prices could experience a correction. Geopolitical variables remain crucial: Trump's unpredictability has put the EU on alert; while transatlantic relations have temporarily eased, long-term confidence has been damaged, potentially triggering more volatility. Overall, investors should focus on Federal Reserve meetings, economic data, and developments in Arctic deployments. Gold's role in the de-dollarization trend is becoming increasingly prominent, serving as a shield against uncertainty. In this era rife with geopolitical storms, gold is not merely an investment product but an anchor for global stability. The gold market in 2026 will continue to write the legend of a super bull cycle under the interplay of multiple factors. Additionally, the Kremlin stated that Russian President Putin met with three US envoys late Thursday night in Moscow to discuss proposals for ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This meeting followed multiple signals from the US side suggesting a potential agreement is near, a development investors should closely monitor. Gold technical analysis: From a technical perspective, gold prices remain in a strong overall bullish trend. The daily chart shows prices ascending steadily within an upward channel, firmly trading above the medium- and long-term moving average system, with the trend structure intact and no clear reversal signals yet. In terms of key levels, the $5000 area constitutes the current psychological high resistance and a significant psychological barrier. If the price can effectively break through and stabilize above this area, gold could potentially extend its upward momentum towards higher targets. Conversely, if short-term momentum weakens, prices may oscillate around current highs or even experience a significant correction. For support, the $4880–$4900 range forms an important short-term support zone, representing both the previous breakout platform and a key defensive area for bulls. As long as prices hold above this zone during any technical pullback, the overall bullish structure should remain intact. Further support is seen around $4800, corresponding to the low of the previous consolidation area, which holds strong technical significance. There is no clear short-term entry point; if trading, a medium-term layout is recommended. Overall, today's short-term trading strategy for gold suggests prioritizing buying on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance is focused at the 4980-5000 line, while key short-term support lies at the 4930-4910 line. Crude oil's latest market trend analysis: The international crude oil market faced significant pressure during the week. WTI crude oil experienced minor fluctuations during Friday's Asian trading session, trading around $59.70, falling back below the key $60 level. Rising inventory pressures and expectations of a de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine situation were the main factors weighing on prices. On the geopolitical front, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that the US, Russia, and Ukraine would hold a trilateral team meeting on Friday. This news boosted market expectations for a substantive breakthrough in a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, reducing the geopolitical risk premium previously priced into oil. Fundamentally, the latest data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude oil inventories increased by approximately 3.6 million barrels last week, significantly higher than the market's expectation of a 500,000-barrel draw. Simultaneously, gasoline inventories rose by about 6 million barrels, marking the tenth consecutive week of increases and reaching the highest level since 2021. Crude oil technical analysis: From a daily chart perspective, oil prices entered a consolidation phase after touching around $54.80. Prices broke through the moving average system but have shown repeated crossovers, indicating that the medium-term objective trend direction has entered a sideways pattern. The $60.50 level was breached, but the sustainability of this move requires further observation. The probability of a sustained medium-term upward trend for oil is low, and risks of a pullback remain. On the short-term (1H) chart, oil prices are fluctuating within a range, failing to extend the prior uptrend. Prices have retreated to the vicinity of $59. The MACD indicator has crossed below the zero line, with the fast and slow lines forming a golden cross at low levels, suggesting weakening downward momentum, though it still holds an advantage. It is anticipated that intraday oil price movements will primarily be range-bound. Overall, the recommended trading strategy for oil today is to primarily buy on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary tactic. Key short-term resistance is focused at the 61.5-62.5 line, while key short-term support lies at the 58.5-57.5 line.
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