On June 30th, the three major A-share indices experienced a volatile upward trend in the morning session, with the STAR 50 Index maintaining its robust performance. By the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index had risen by 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index was up 2.47%, the ChiNext Index had surged 3.06%, and the STAR 50 Index climbed 3.51% to break through the 2200-point mark, setting a new historical high.
In terms of sector performance, institutional funds once again shifted away from traditional sectors and embraced technology stocks. The memory chip concept saw repeated strength, with Tianshan Electronic hitting a 20% limit-up, following a previous surge by Yingxin Development. The CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) concept also rose, with Changguang Huaxin reaching a 20% limit-up, while Taichenguang and Yuanjie Technology gained over 11%. The robotics concept continued its rebound, with Chunguang Technology hitting the limit-up, following earlier surges in Fenglong Co., Ltd., Zhongjian Technology, and Estun. The lithium mining concept also rebounded, with Zhongkuang Resources hitting the limit-up, and Yongshan Lithium, Tianhua New Energy, Shengxin Lithium, Tibet Summit, and Rongjie Co., Ltd. following the upward trend.
On the downside, traditional sectors faced another significant decline. The pharmaceutical concept experienced a broad correction, the agriculture concept trended lower, the major consumer concept declined across the board, the chemical sector saw a collective downturn, and the major financial concept continued its downward trajectory.
Regarding notable stocks, Cambricon, often referred to as the "AI chip leader," surged over 8% to a new historical high, with its market capitalization exceeding the one trillion yuan mark, trading at 1,613 yuan by the midday close.
Market Outlook and Key Themes
Looking ahead, one brokerage firm suggests that internal differentiation within the technology sector is ongoing. The primary indicator to watch is the relative strength of the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices. While the ChiNext Index shows signs of technical divergence, the STAR 50 Index maintains relative strength. Should the STAR 50 Index also begin to diverge, it would warrant heightened caution regarding the risk of a correction in crowded trades. The A-share market's trajectory appears relatively independent. Amidst this tech sector differentiation, some capital is attempting to rotate from high-valuation to low-valuation stocks, but the sustainability of this shift requires further confirmation.
Top Performing Sectors
The memory chip concept demonstrated repeated strength, with Tianshan Electronic hitting a 20% limit-up, following a previous surge by Yingxin Development. Analysis points to a recent report suggesting the current memory super-cycle will be "higher and longer," with global memory total addressable market projected to surge from $214 billion in 2025 to $1.68 trillion by 2028. DRAM revenue is forecast to reach $1.23 trillion by 2028, with CPUs identified as a core catalyst for the new round of memory price increases.
The CPO concept rose during the session, with Changguang Huaxin reaching a 20% limit-up, while Taichenguang and Yuanjie Technology gained over 11%. Reports indicate that products related to computing power have accelerated their export pace this year. For instance, one company has seen exports of its 800G and above optical modules grow over 100-fold year-on-year, driven by the global acceleration in computing infrastructure construction.
The robotics concept continued its rebound, with Chunguang Technology hitting the limit-up, following earlier surges in Fenglong Co., Ltd., Zhongjian Technology, and Estun. Analysis cites a research note highlighting that the practical application of humanoid robots is a key market focus. With Figure 03 entering BMW factories and leading manufacturers actively promoting applications in industrial settings, the potential application scenarios are expected to expand as robot generalization capabilities improve. 2026 is anticipated to be a significant year for vertical applications of humanoid robots.
The lithium mining concept rebounded, with Zhongkuang Resources hitting the limit-up, and Yongshan Lithium, Tianhua New Energy, Shengxin Lithium, Tibet Summit, and Rongjie Co., Ltd. following the upward trend. This movement is linked to the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract rising over 4% intraday, approaching 157,000 yuan per ton.
Institutional Perspectives
One brokerage firm reiterates that internal differentiation within the technology sector persists. The primary observation variable is the relative strength of the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices. The ChiNext Index shows signs of technical divergence while the STAR 50 Index maintains relative strength. Should the STAR 50 Index also begin to diverge, it would warrant heightened caution regarding the risk of a correction in crowded trades. The A-share market's trajectory appears relatively independent. Amidst this tech sector differentiation, some capital is attempting to rotate from high-valuation to low-valuation stocks, but the sustainability of this shift requires further confirmation. As the market approaches the half-year close, the suggested strategy for the technology direction is to hold positions or gradually take profits on strength. Investors may moderately participate in high-quality sectors with valuation and price advantages at lower levels, coupled with event catalysts. Short-term focus should be on dividend-related sectors and the further动向 of the micro-cap index after it stabilizes. It is crucial to closely track the sustainability of the market style shifting from extreme concentration to rotation. With the interim report forecast window approaching, market pricing will increasingly tilt towards fundamental performance. At this juncture, it is essential to intensify research on individual companies' ability to deliver on earnings, particularly paying attention to whether valuations have already excessively discounted their growth expectations.
Another securities firm believes the focus should be on the demand for style rebalancing at the quarter-end. At the end of June, due to factors such as some insurance companies facing quarter-end solvency assessment pressure, constraints related to semi-annual report disclosures for public funds, and potentially tight inter-quarter liquidity, caution is warranted regarding potential phased profit-taking pressure in the AI hardware and semiconductor directions. The market will face more disturbances in July, with key observations including the terminal acceptance of price increases for items like memory, changes in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, the performance of tech leaders' interim report forecasts, and the realization pressure from the listing of domestic tech giants. Overall, July is in a market transition phase, where capital flow logic will gradually give way to industrial logic, and liquidity-driven moves will progressively shift towards being earnings-driven. However, the substantial gains in the tech sector earlier have already incorporated high expectations for performance. Whether these earnings growth rates can be realized as expected remains somewhat uncertain. The market in July is expected to experience significant volatility, suggesting a balanced allocation strategy is advisable.
A third major securities firm posits that the current AI trading wave resembles the new energy cycle of 2021 more than the internet bubble of 2000. The current AI phase is akin to the new energy sector around mid-2021, where the dynamic P/E ratios for upstream segments have not yet contracted and earnings expectations are just beginning to be revised upward. Signals for a potential peak include: the price peak of the "least scarce" commodity (electrolyte in 2021 = silicon wafers now), widespread downstream price increases and cost complaints, an increase in the density of overseas capital expenditure disclosures, and a collapse in crowding/diffusion metrics. Within the upstream segment, varieties with low valuations and tight supply offer increasingly attractive risk-reward profiles later in the cycle. The current view is also more favorable towards downstream-oriented varieties,看好 silicon-based segments like the memory chain, combustion engine chain, optical modules, PCBs, and cloud providers, as well as carbon+silicon computing power metals, fluorochemicals, and phosphorous chemicals.
A fourth securities firm notes that the confirmation of the global semiconductor equipment upcycle continues, with attention on price increases and overseas expansion. SEMI has revised its full-year expectations upwards, and SK Hynix plans to triple its capacity by 2034, further solidifying the establishment of the global semiconductor upcycle. On June 11th, SEMI released a report significantly raising its 2026 global front-end semiconductor equipment market size growth forecast from the previous 16.5% to 23.5%, reaching $152.2 billion. Q1 global semiconductor equipment billings reached $36.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%, setting a new historical quarterly high. Following the announcement of SK Hynix's five-year capacity doubling plan earlier this month, SK Group Chairman Choi Tae-won recently stated in an interview that if all construction plans proceed as expected, Hynix's capacity by 2034 will be three times its current level. The components segment is the most弹性 direction in this cycle. The global semiconductor equipment components sector is experiencing a historically rare, full-chain price increase wave. Pricing power within the semiconductor industry chain is structurally shifting from chip终端 towards the equipment and components segments. Component companies are generally smaller with high fixed cost proportions, meaning price increases translate directly into profits. Furthermore, production line expansion cycles are long, typically 12-18 months, resulting in the poorest supply elasticity. Attention should be paid to the demand for domestic substitution and the涨价 logic arising from extended delivery times for overseas suppliers of valves/piping, ceramic components, RF power supplies, GAS BOX, etc.
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