On the morning of September 28, renowned investor Duan Yongping (Xueqiu ID: Da Dao Wu Xing Wo You Xing) posted on the Xueqiu platform, writing briefly that he "bought a little Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. (600519)."
The post showed an average purchase price of about 1,230 yuan per share, for 30,000 shares, totaling more than 36.9 million yuan.
After the news came out, Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. (600519) rallied into positive territory at around 1:30 p.m. that afternoon. By the close, its shares were up 0.56% at 1,243 yuan, with a total market value of 1.55 trillion yuan.
"I bought Moutai again today, does that confuse you?"
This was not the first time Duan Yongping had made a move recently.
On May 7 this year, an investor asked him on Xueqiu: "I have been fully invested in Moutai for half a year now, and I am wondering whether I should shift part of my position into Pop Mart."
Duan Yongping responded directly: "I bought Moutai again today, does that confuse you?"
In addition, in January and October 2025, he publicly posted that he had bought Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. (600519).
Reviewing his public statements, the core logic has remained consistent: he values Moutai's business model and long-term demand, and believes the consumer trend of "drinking less but drinking better" may still support Moutai's demand; a short-term slowdown in sales does not mean a fundamental change in long-term value. He has also said that measured over ten years, Moutai can most likely beat inflation, but stressed that this is only a personal judgment, not a guarantee of returns.
The 100 Million Yuan Bet: Challenging Domestic Funds, Original Post Has Disappeared
In August this year, Duan Yongping also made a bigger move on Xueqiu.
On August 13, a netizen suggested that he refer to Buffett's "ten-year bet" and make a public long-term investment agreement. Duan Yongping responded immediately:
I dare to hold Moutai and bet 100 million yuan against any domestic fund, with a ten-year limit. The premise is that beforehand it must be agreed that the recipient of the winner's donation must be recognized by the other party. I will donate to Bubugao Experimental School.
He also added that if any netizens wanted to join, the premise was that they must "first take out 100 million yuan to donate, and only then can they join."
The background data for this statement is: as of the end of June 2026, Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. (600519) had risen 412.11% over the past ten years, beating the 133.96% gain of the equity-oriented hybrid fund index over the same period. But over the past five years, Moutai's share price fell 33.31%, underperforming the 8.56% gain of the equity-oriented hybrid fund index over the same period.
Regarding this bet, private fund manager Dan Bin later responded, saying there was no need to determine a winner through a public bet, and that performance ten years later could naturally be compared, adding that investing requires "advancing with the times and looking globally," and that while adhering to core values, one should also embrace the new-era dividends of AI and semiconductors.
However, upon checking the Xueqiu platform now, Duan Yongping's original bet post can no longer be found.
Baijiu Industry Background: Peak Season Not Peak, Moutai Stands Alone
Duan Yongping's continued increase of his Moutai position comes against the backdrop of overall pressure on the baijiu industry.
Before this year's Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day "double holiday" period, several industry figures told The Paper that overall sales momentum was "not strong in the peak season," with sub-high-end baijiu collectively facing a cold market. One distributor said bluntly that "apart from Moutai, many baijiu products are already at floor prices."
The terminal retail price of Feitian Moutai has remained relatively firm, at 1,766 yuan per bottle in self-operated stores, with most terminals at more than 1,800 yuan per bottle.
Independent baijiu industry commentator Xiao Zhuqing told The Paper, "Across the entire industry, apart from Moutai, which maintains firm rigid demand, the vast majority of famous liquors, regional liquors, sub-high-end liquors, and mass-market liquors are collectively facing a cold market. Baijiu has officially entered a new cycle of shrinking competition, with leading players enjoying the dividends alone."
A research report from Sinolink Securities pointed out that the industry's "volume, price, and profit" are already in a stage of gradually bottoming out, and it is expected that during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day period, the year-on-year decline in industry sales momentum will further narrow to a slight decline or even stabilize at flat levels.
At the institutional level, Jefferies released a research report in August, arguing that Moutai is accelerating its transformation toward a luxury goods operating model, with a logic that is "increasingly like Hermès," giving a target price of 2,100 yuan, maintaining a buy rating, implying about 56% upside from the then-current share price.
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