Today is Thursday, September 25, 2025, the fourth day of the eighth lunar month. Every autumn morning, we provide timely and fresh research perspectives, adhering to the principles of "independence, objectivity, rationality, and sincerity," cherishing your trust and protecting your investments. "Morning Research Outlook" brings you:
Industry Updates
【Home Appliances】Moon Environment Technology Co.,Ltd. (000811): Main business expected to reach inflection point, AIDC business contributes new growth curve
【Metal New Materials】Jiangxi Copper Company Limited (600362): Undervalued copper sector target with promising profit growth potential
Industry Updates
Home Appliances
Moon Environment Technology Co.,Ltd. (000811): Main business expected to reach inflection point, AIDC business contributes new growth curve
The company's core businesses include cold chain related equipment, energy and chemical equipment, central air conditioning business, and energy-saving heating business. Meanwhile, leveraging the compressor technology advantages accumulated in the refrigeration business, the company actively expands into hydrogen energy, CCUS, natural gas compression equipment and other fields. The company's products are widely applied in: ①Commercial refrigeration systems for food/agricultural product freezing, storage and deep processing, cold chain logistics base construction, food/pharmaceutical vacuum freeze-drying, ice and snow sports venues, processing and pre-treatment production lines; ②Industrial freezing systems for energy/chemical production process cooling, aerospace wind tunnels/superconducting research artificial special environments, building aggregate cooling, tunnel and mine exploration freezing; ③Commercial comfort air conditioning for rail transit, commercial real estate; ④Industrial special air conditioning for data centers, nuclear power plants, metallurgy and petrochemicals, clean spaces, electronics factories, pharmaceuticals; ⑤Waste heat and energy utilization, gas compression and liquefaction, energy storage systems, new energy equipment, clean emissions.
We expect the company's main business to reach an inflection point, with domestic commercial and industrial refrigeration at cycle bottom or moderate recovery, and overseas expansion opportunities. Recently, national nuclear power construction has released acceleration signals. In this field, the company focuses on core scenarios such as nuclear island cooling and nuclear energy heating, developing a series of innovative technologies for nuclear island cooling and cooling waste heat recovery, providing solutions for safe and stable operation of nuclear power plants and efficient utilization of clean energy. Additionally, regions such as Southeast Asia/Middle East have strong refrigeration demand.
AIDC business rapid growth contributes new growth curve. The company's subsidiary Dunham-Bush and Moon Heat Exchange Technology provide primary cooling source equipment and heat exchange devices for data centers and liquid cooling systems. Moon Heat Exchange Technology provides evaporative condensers, closed cooling towers, dry coolers, isenthalpic humidification air coolers, dry-wet combined coolers, plate-fin sealed channel heat exchangers, air-liquid mixed cooling heat exchangers, etc. The company has successfully served many domestic projects including National Supercomputing Center in Guangzhou (Tianhe-2), China Mobile (Guizhou) Big Data Center, China Unicom Xi'an Data Center, Beijing Sijiqing Data Center, Shanghai Bank of Communications Data Processing Center. Internationally, it cooperates with multiple local professional integrators, serving numerous projects in North America, Australia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.
First coverage, "Recommended" rating. The company's main business beta has bottomed out, AIDC business maintains high prosperity. Additionally, the industrial layout is complete, technical reserves are sufficient, leveraging design institute advantages to penetrate customers, building intelligent compressor factories to improve efficiency, with significant alpha. We forecast the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at 7.2/8.5/10.0 billion yuan, with relative valuations of 19.7/16.7/14.2x PE. Selecting comparable companies that also provide primary cooling source equipment for data centers and liquid cooling systems - Bingshan Refrigeration & Heat-exchange Technologies and Shenling Environment Systems, with average valuations of 53.9/40.6/30.6x PE, we give a "Recommended" rating.
Risk warnings: Downstream demand falling short of expectations, accounts receivable collection risk, inventory risk, etc.
Metal New Materials
Jiangxi Copper Company Limited (600362): Undervalued copper sector target with promising profit growth potential
Core logic: China's largest comprehensive copper producer, overseas resource layout may bring potential increments. Current valuation significantly below comparable copper sector companies, optimistic about copper price increases and continued company valuation recovery.
Jiangxi Copper Company Limited: China's largest copper production base, stable self-produced copper and by-product gold output
The company is China's largest copper production base and largest associated gold and silver production base. The main mine Dexing Copper Mine has cash costs below industry average. In terms of resources, as of December 31, 2024, the company's 100% owned reserves are approximately 8.8991 million tons of copper, 239.08 tons of gold, 8,252.60 tons of silver, and 166,200 tons of molybdenum. Over the past five years, the company's self-owned mines have produced approximately 200,000 tons of copper annually and about 5 tons of by-product gold annually, with annual output remaining basically stable. Since 2025, Shanghai copper and gold average prices have increased by 5% and 34% respectively year-over-year. We expect the company's profits to fully benefit from rising copper and gold prices.
Highlight 1: Bakuta tungsten mine steadily increasing production
The company holds a 31.2% stake in Jiaxin International Resources, which owns exclusive mining rights to the Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan. Bakuta tungsten mine plans to produce and process 3.3 million tons of tungsten ore in 2025, with future project output to increase to 4.95 million tons of tungsten ore. We expect that as tungsten ore production increases, project costs will gradually decrease, bringing new performance increments to the company.
Highlight 2: Panama copper mine resumption shows promise
The company is the largest shareholder of Canadian copper mining company First Quantum. Since October 22, 2024, the company's investment in First Quantum has been converted to long-term equity investment using the equity method. First Quantum's Cobre Panamá copper mine has been shut down since November 2023. According to SMM, Panama is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum regarding the restart of Cobre Panamá copper mine. The project produced 350,000 tons of copper in 2022. If the project restarts and recovers capacity, it is expected to add 65,000 tons of annual equity copper mine production for the company.
Highlight 3: Aynak copper mine construction begins
The company holds a 25% stake in Afghanistan's Aynak copper mine. The company participated in the development of Aynak copper mine as early as 2007. The project has resource reserves of 705 million tons of ore with an average copper grade of 1.56%, containing 11 million tons of copper metal. According to Russia's Sputnik news agency, China Metallurgical Group is expected to begin copper mine development by the end of 2025.
Stable profitability, valuation significantly below comparable copper sector companies
As of September 23, 2025, Jiangxi Copper Company Limited A-shares have a 2025 PE (Wind consensus forecast) of 12.2x, while Hong Kong-listed Jiangxi Copper Company Limited shares have a 2025 PE (Wind consensus forecast) of 10.1x, significantly below the copper sector median of 17.2x.
Profit forecast and rating
We forecast the company's operating revenue for 2025-2027 at 537.0/547.8/554.9 billion yuan, year-over-year growth of +3.09%/+2.01%/+1.29% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders at 80.67/86.51/93.24 billion yuan, year-over-year growth of +15.88%/+7.23%/+7.78% respectively, corresponding to company PE of 12.21, 11.38, 10.56x respectively. First coverage gives the company a "Recommended" rating.
Risk warnings: Fed interest rate adjustment policy pace falling short of expectations, related metal price performance falling short of expectations, company related project progress falling short of expectations, cost increases or profit release falling short of expectations, etc.
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