Online freight rate quotes show the following developments. The Gemini Cooperation: Maersk's Shanghai-Rotterdam rates for WEEK20 are $1,720/$2,430, with WEEK21 rates at $1,890/$2,930. Rates for the port of Rotterdam increased by $500 per FEU compared to the previous week. Hamburg port WEEK21 rates rose by $500 to $2,900 per FEU. Antwerp port rates increased by $300 to $2,700 per FEU. Le Havre rates increased by $300 to $2,700 per FEU. London port rates increased by $300 to $2,700 per FEU. HPL's rates for the second half of May are between $2,800-$4,000 per FEU, while rates for the first half of June are between $4,000-$5,000 per FEU.
The MSC+Premier Alliance: MSC's rates for the first half of May are $1,558/$2,636, and for the second half of May are $1,760/$2,940. ONE's rates for the second half of May are $3,541 per FEU, and for the first half of June are $3,541 per FEU. HMM's rates for the second half of May are $1,944/$3,458. YML's rates for the second half of May are $2,200/$3,500.
The Ocean Alliance: CMA's Shanghai-Rotterdam rates for the first half of May are $1,559/$2,535, and for the second half of May are $1,975/$3,525. EMC's rates for the first half of May are between $2,300-$2,660 per FEU, and for the second half of May are between $3,460-$3,560 per FEU. OOCL's rates for the first half of May are around $2,509 per FEU, and for the second half of May are $2,000/$3,500.
Geopolitical factors: Iranian armed forces stated that U.S. military attacks on oil tankers and airstrikes on coastal areas violate the ceasefire agreement, and Iran has conducted counterstrikes.
Static supply: Regarding current vessel deliveries, as of April 30, 2026, 58 container ships have been delivered year-to-date, with a total capacity of 376,637 TEU. This includes 13 vessels in the 12,000-16,999 TEU range, totaling 191,100 TEU, and 2 vessels of 17,000+ TEU, totaling 41,020 TEU. For delivery expectations, 12,000-16,999 TEU vessels: 578,000 TEU (39 vessels) are scheduled for delivery in the remaining months of 2026, 949,000 TEU (64 vessels) in 2027, 1,344,400 TEU (93 vessels) in 2028, and 549,000 TEU (39 vessels) in 2029. For 17,000+ TEU vessels: 169,000 TEU (7 vessels) are scheduled for delivery in the remaining months of 2026, 886,800 TEU (41 vessels) in 2027, 1,651,000 TEU (82 vessels) in 2028, and 1,564,000 TEU (78 vessels) in 2029. Overall, delivery pressure for ultra-large vessels in 2026 is relatively light. Annual deliveries for 17,000+ TEU vessels in 2027, 2028, and 2029 all exceed 40 vessels. In the first half of 2026 (January-June), only 4 vessels of 17,000+ TEU were delivered.
Dynamic supply: The average weekly capacity for the China-Europe base port route in May is 300,300 TEU. Weekly capacities for WEEK19/20/21/22 are 258,800 TEU, 294,500 TEU, 317,800 TEU, and 330,300 TEU, respectively. The average weekly capacity for June is projected at 309,500 TEU, with weekly capacities for WEEK23/24/25/26/27 at 329,500 TEU, 264,400 TEU, 291,000 TEU, 383,000 TEU, and 279,500 TEU, respectively. There were 8 blank sailings and 1 TBN in May, and 12 TBNs are scheduled for June.
The EC2605 contract is gradually approaching its delivery date. With Maersk's WEEK21 rates announced, attention is on whether the PA alliance will follow suit. The market is entering a peak season phase where carriers attempt to support rates. From May to August, shipping lines are expected to try to raise rates. Maersk has announced a rate increase for the second half of May, effective after May 4, 2026, to $2,340/$3,600. HPL's post-May 15 rate increase is to $2,300/$3,500. Maersk's WEEK19 and WEEK20 rates were quoted at $2,400 per FEU, with WEEK21 Europe base port rates between $2,700-$2,900 per FEU. The OA alliance's CMA rate for the first half of May is $2,525 per FEU. The PA alliance's YML rate for the first half of May is $1,350/$2,200, with a specific May 2 sailing quoted at $1,800 per FEU. Updated capacity data shows that for WEEK19/20, the combined capacity for MSC/PA alliance shared vessels is between 50,000-60,000 TEU. In WEEK21, the PA alliance's capacity is relatively larger, with shared vessel capacity close to 90,000 TEU. It is important to monitor whether the PA alliance can successfully implement rate increases given this high capacity, especially as carriers continue their efforts to support prices. The May contract is gradually moving towards its delivery logic. If estimating the final SCFIS based on Maersk's rates, the estimated top for the May 11 SCFIS is around 1770 points. The May 18 index is also estimated around 1770 points. The May 25 index is estimated around 2140 points. The estimated top for the May contract settlement price might be around 1890 points. Maersk's rates for the second half of May have been initially announced. Investors should closely monitor the spot market, focusing on the risk-reward ratio as the delivery date approaches.
For the relatively peak season contracts of June, July, and August, expectations are currently strong and difficult to disprove in the short term. The probability of the Suez Canal reopening in the first half of the year remains relatively low. Recent events involving Iran and the Houthi rebels resuming attacks on Red Sea shipping corridors reinforce this expectation. The delivery pressure for ultra-large container vessels in the first half of the year is relatively light, with only 4 vessels of 17,000+ TEU delivered. Monthly year-on-year growth in demand on the Asia-Europe route has also been relatively high, with most months showing container trade volume growth exceeding 10%. Based on these factors, the short-term trend for the EC2606, EC2607, and EC2608 contracts is expected to be relatively strong. As time progresses, the June contract is also gradually incorporating more spot price dynamics. The EC2606 contract is currently trading at a significant premium to the spot market. Investors are advised to manage their节奏, follow the spot market closely, and carefully consider the risk-reward ratio.
As of May 7, 2026, the total open interest for all European container index futures contracts was 31,512 lots, with a daily trading volume of 21,514 lots. Closing prices were: EC2604 at 1,640.60 points, EC2605 at 1,793.80 points, EC2606 at 2,306.50 points, EC2607 at 2,569.90 points, EC2608 at 2,340.10 points, EC2609 at 1,755.10 points, EC2610 at 1,620.40 points, and EC2512 at 1,866.10 points. The SCFI for the Shanghai-Europe route, published on April 30, was $1,521 per TEU. The SCFI for Shanghai-US West Coast was $2,722 per FEU. The SCFI for Shanghai-US East Coast was $3,691 per FEU. The SCFIS for Shanghai-Europe, published on May 4, was 1,615.21 points. The SCFIS for Shanghai-US West Coast was 1,697.48 points.
Strategy: Single Position: None Arbitrage: None
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