According to a research report issued by Lyon Securities, while official data from the Mainland's Ministry of Culture and Tourism is still pending, figures up to yesterday (23rd) indicate that overall consumption on the mainland remains positive, with strong travel activity. In terms of cross-border tourism, the National Immigration Administration forecasts an average daily cross-border passenger flow increase of approximately 14% year-on-year. Consumption at Hainan's duty-free shops has shown resilience, supported by more vigorous promotional activities and policy-driven incremental demand, although this has largely been reflected in the share price of CTG DUTY-FREE (01880). However, box office performance has been weak, hitting an eight-year low. Additionally, channel checks by Lyon indicate that gold jewelry sales continue to face pressure due to gold price volatility, while some luxury brands have demonstrated strong performance year-to-date. The firm believes that Spring Festival data leans toward robust travel and tourism, with high-end consumption performing well, which will benefit Lyon's top picks including: Samsonite (01910), French luxury giant LVMH, Richemont—the parent company of Cartier—and ANTA SPORTS (02020), which is linked to domestic demand.
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