The medium-to-long-term outlook hinges on the policy objectives of the new Federal Reserve Chair. Gold experienced a sharp decline, with the spot price in London falling over $1000 per ounce from its peak on January 29. After witnessing extreme volatility of nearly 20% in both directions, what trajectory lies ahead for the market? Industry professionals believe gold will see substantial fluctuations in the short term, advising investors against rushing to buy the dip. They suggest waiting for market volatility to subside, after which products like Gold ETFs will offer a more stable option compared to gold mining stocks. While the medium-to-long-term investment thesis for gold remains intact, attention must also be paid to how the incoming Federal Reserve Chair will align with President Trump's policy shifts. Kenny Ng, a strategist at Everbright Securities International, stated that gold is fundamentally a safe-haven asset, yet any asset experiencing sharp price swings inherently reveals its risk attributes. Following the recent steep sell-off, short-term price volatility is expected to persist. The crucial support level for this pullback is estimated within the $4300 to $4500 per ounce range, and investors should currently refrain from hastily attempting to catch the bottom. From a medium-term perspective, the upward trend for gold has not fundamentally reversed. This significant price correction has not altered the underlying supportive factors, including the continued weakness of the US dollar, diminishing global confidence in US Treasury bonds and dollar-denominated assets, and the ongoing global trend of lower interest rates. These elements continue to provide solid support for gold prices. Once the market stabilizes, Gold ETFs, which track the gold price, represent a more reliable choice than gold mining stocks. Tony Lee, Investment Director at Red Ant Capital, opined that the sharp downturn in international gold and silver prices last Friday evening might signal the beginning of a period of intense volatility, indicating that the short term may not be ideal for long-term capital allocation. Reviewing the final phase of the recent rally, the primary drivers were signs of liquidity drying up in the international spot gold and silver markets and increasing urgency for physical metal delivery. This attracted substantial short-term hot money for speculative buying, and some institutions holding structured products were forced to cover positions, further driving precious metal prices to historic highs. However, the logic underpinning this rally was fragile, making the market trend highly susceptible to sudden reversals. The market can swiftly transition from a spiral of buying-driven increases to a spiral of selling-driven declines, significantly amplifying short-term volatility risks and potential magnitude. Lee anticipates that short-term gold prices may fluctuate around a central point of $5000 per ounce, within a range of $1000. Although recent volatility has exceeded that of the stock market, the primary driver for gold remains safe-haven demand; its essential safe-haven characteristic is unchanged, and the logic for medium-to-long-term appreciation persists. Gold mining stocks, however, are an option for investors with a higher risk appetite. A Guangzhou-based private fund manager noted that while gold is traditionally viewed as a key safe-haven asset, it has exhibited characteristics of a risk asset under the current extreme volatility. The medium-to-long-term investment rationale remains, but once volatility decreases, investors are advised to prioritize allocating to stable Gold ETF products over gold mining stocks, whose operational conditions and performance are difficult to predict accurately. An additional risk factor is that Kevin Warsh, the Fed Chair nominee, is scheduled to assume office in May 2025. As a nominee of President Trump, his future monetary policy stance is currently unclear. If the primary policy objective of the Fed shifts towards restoring the international credibility of the US dollar, potential measures could include implementing interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction. This would prompt investors to reassess gold's pricing attributes and its role in medium-to-long-term asset allocation.
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