Former Fed Chair sees inflation falling into next year
Bernanke says a slowdown is likely, but recession will be mild
The Federal Reserve’s widely expected increase in interest rates next week may prove to be the last in its current credit-tightening campaign, former Chair Ben Bernanke said.
“It looks very clear that the Fed will raise another 25 basis points at its next meeting,” he said Thursday on a webinar organized by Fidelity Investments. “It’s possible this increase in July might be the last one.”
Investors seem to agree. They’re pricing in the near certainty of a rate hike at the Fed’s July 25-26 meeting with limited chances of an additional increase thereafter, according to trading in the federal funds futures market.
Speaking in his role as senior adviser to Pacific Investment Management Co., Bernanke said he sees inflation falling “more durably” to the 3% to 3.5% range over the next six months as rent increases ebb and automobile prices decline.
“We’ll get down to three, three plus by early next year and then I think the Fed will take its time trying to get down to its 2% target,” Bernanke said.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, rose 3.8% in May from a year earlier. The core PCE price index – which excludes food and energy costs and which Fed officials judge is more representative of underlying trends – rose 4.6%.
Bernanke said the Fed will want to see a better balance between demand and supply in the labor market before declaring victory in its fight against inflation. “It’s still pretty hot,” he said of the jobs market.
While job vacancies have declined, there’s still about 1.6 positions open for every person counted as unemployed.
The former Fed chair suggested the US was likely to suffer a slowdown as part of the price of getting inflation down, though he stressed any recession would probably be a mild one.
“What we’ll see is a very modest increase in unemployment and a slowing of the economy,” he said. “But I’d be very surprised to see a deep recession in the next year.”
Comments