Noble Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary and Q&A Highlights: Contract Extensions and Market Outlook

Earnings Call10-29

[Management View]
Adjusted EBITDA of $254 million and free cash flow of $139 million were reported. The company distributed $80 million to shareholders through a $0.50 per share dividend in Q3 2025, with an additional $0.50 per share dividend declared for Q4 2025. Key strategic priorities include securing new contracts for three key drillships and maintaining over 90% fleet utilization.

[Outlook]
Management expects EBITDA to trough in 2026, with a significant inflection in free cash flow and EBITDA beginning in late 2026. The company is focused on securing new contracts and anticipates increased customer engagement and positive signals from ongoing tender activity.

[Financial Performance]
- Adjusted EBITDA: $254 million
- Free Cash Flow: $139 million
- Capital Return: $80 million distributed in Q3 2025, with a total of $340 million for 2025
- Contract Extensions: Two-year extension with BP in the US Gulf
- Backlog: Increase in committed ultra-deepwater (UDW) rig count to approximately 100 rigs

[Q&A Highlights]
Question 1: I wanted to get your thoughts on improving the utilization for your high-spec floater fleet for 2026, with a target of getting to 90 to 100% by the second half.
Answer: It revolves around the Viking, the Jerry D'Souza, and the Black Rhino. We are advancing conversations around all three rigs and hope to have news soon. We have line of sight towards the work we are hopeful to win.

Question 2: Could you elaborate on the Diamond Offshore BOP leases? It sounds like a quick cash return payoff given the savings.
Answer: There are two components: the service agreement and the lease agreement. We terminated the service agreement with a $35 million payment in Q4. The lease agreement has a cap of $85 million, payable next year. The total cash outlay is $135 million, with annual savings of $45 million.

Question 3: As we think about the first half of '26, is the moderately down performance largely driven by idle time on the floaters?
Answer: Yes, it is largely driven by the floaters. We aim to get back to market utilization, which translates to two out of three rigs working at any given time. We have line of sight on different jobs and feel confident in achieving this goal.

Question 4: Are the term jobs out there remaining firm given the macro environment, or has there been any drift or slippage?
Answer: It has been a mixture. Some jobs have held firm, while others have been pushed by six months. We haven't seen anything being pulled back forward.

Question 5: Could you talk about your confidence level in the deepwater utilization recovery by late '26, early '27?
Answer: It is based on a mixture of contracts, tenders, and customer conversations. We see a tightening market and are cautiously optimistic that day rates have bottomed. We believe the market dynamics will support a recovery in deepwater utilization by late 2026 or early 2027.

[Sentiment Analysis]
Analysts' tone was cautiously optimistic, focusing on utilization rates and contract extensions. Management expressed confidence in securing new contracts and achieving a significant inflection in financial performance by late 2026.

[Quarterly Comparison]
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 |
|-------------------------|---------------|---------------|
| Adjusted EBITDA | $254 million | $240 million |
| Free Cash Flow | $139 million | $130 million |
| Capital Return | $80 million | $80 million |
| UDW Rig Count | 100 rigs | 95 rigs |

[Risks and Concerns]
- EBITDA expected to trough in 2026 due to rigs rolling off contract and limited near-term backlog visibility.
- Up to $135 million in additional outlays related to BOP service and lease contract terminations.
- Macroeconomic challenges affecting demand visibility and customer budget announcements.

[Final Takeaway]
Noble Corporation reported solid financial performance in Q3 2025, with significant capital returns to shareholders. The company is focused on securing new contracts and maintaining high fleet utilization. While EBITDA is expected to trough in 2026, management anticipates a significant inflection in financial performance beginning in late 2026. Analysts and management are cautiously optimistic about the market outlook and the potential for a recovery in deepwater utilization.
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