On July 1st, Goldman Sachs removed Duke (DUK.US) from its US Conviction List in a monthly update but maintained its Buy rating on the stock. Separately, on June 24th, Morgan Stanley raised its price target for Duke from $132 to $136, reiterating an Equal-Weight rating. As of the close on July 7th, Duke shares traded at $128.22, up 1.79%, having reached an intraday high of $130.37. The stock's 52-week trading range is $113.90 to $134.49. Year-to-date, Duke has gained approximately 9.33%.
Analyst Views Diverge: Goldman Removes from List but Keeps Buy
Goldman Sachs initially added Duke to its US Conviction List in July 2025 with a Buy rating and a $132 price target. The firm had highlighted Duke's regulatory progress in key markets and its efforts to expand natural gas generation capacity through a partnership with GE Vernova as key attractions. The recent removal from the list is part of the firm's routine monthly adjustments. Notably, Goldman analyst Carly Davenport reaffirmed a Buy rating and a $145 price target for Duke on May 28th. Currently, Goldman's target price remains at $145, implying a potential upside of about 13% from the current share price.
Morgan Stanley, in its June 24th adjustment, increased its price target for Duke from $132 to $136 as part of a monthly target revision for its North American Regulated & Diversified Utilities/Independent Power Producers coverage. Morgan Stanley noted that the utilities sector declined 5.5% in May, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's approximate 5.1% gain over the same period.
The overall Wall Street consensus remains positive. According to a survey by S&P Global of 23 analysts, the consensus rating for Duke is Buy, with an average price target of $138.56, suggesting around 8% upside. Seventeen research firms assign a Moderate Buy rating, comprising 9 Buys and 8 Holds. On July 6th, BTIG reiterated a Buy rating with a $139 target. Mizuho maintains an Outperform rating with a $135 target, while UBS raised its target from $134 to $143.
AI Data Centers: The Central Power Demand Driver
Duke is positioned at the center of the explosive growth in power demand from AI data centers in the United States. According to projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. power demand is set to reach a record high in 2026. Duke anticipates its overall load growth rate will reach 1.5% to 2% in 2026, driven by data centers and advanced manufacturing, and will further accelerate to 3% to 4% annually from 2027 through 2030.
The signed contract data is significant. Since 2024, Duke has signed Electric Service Agreements (ESAs) for data centers representing 7.6 gigawatts (GW) of incremental power demand, with nearly two-thirds of these projects already under construction. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, the company added 2.7 GW of data center ESAs. More notably, the company has disclosed it is in active negotiations for an additional 15.4 GW of data center projects. One gigawatt of power can supply approximately 750,000 U.S. homes. The 7.6 GW of signed data center demand is enough to power about 5.7 million homes, while the 15.4 GW of projects under negotiation represents potential future demand exceeding 11.5 million homes. Even considering only the signed projects, this volume already surpasses the total residential electricity consumption of many small to mid-sized U.S. cities.
A Wedbush report from February noted that AI's energy demand "is not a temporary spike but a long-term structural shift in how the global economy consumes electricity." The EIA also emphasized in a May report that 2026 electricity consumption will exceed last year's levels, with this growth trend continuing into next year; in 2027, commercial electricity consumption will surpass residential consumption for the first time, a change the EIA attributes to AI.
$103 Billion Capital Plan: The Industry's Largest Investment
To address the surge in power demand driven by AI data centers, Duke announced in February 2026 a significant 18% increase in its five-year (2026-2030) capital expenditure plan to $103 billion. This represents the largest fully regulated capital expenditure program in the U.S. utilities industry. The plan, increased by approximately $16 billion from the prior outlook, focuses on investments in natural gas generation, energy storage, solar, and upgrades to existing generation fleets.
The company expects its rate base to grow from about $114 billion in 2025 to roughly $180 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 9.6%. Duke anticipates total capital expenditures over the next decade will reach $200 to $220 billion. The company stated that funding for the capital plan will include asset sales, monetization of tax credits, and balanced equity/debt issuance. The full-year 2026 capital expenditure outlook is approximately $17.75 billion, with $4.19 billion spent as of March 31.
First Quarter Results Beat Expectations, Full-Year Guidance Unchanged
Duke's first quarter 2026 earnings report, released on May 5th, provided a solid foundation for the full-year outlook. Key financials showed first-quarter revenue reached $9.178 billion, up 11.26% year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $1.93, higher than the $1.76 from the same period last year, representing a 9.7% increase. GAAP EPS was $1.97. This performance exceeded Wall Street expectations, beating the Zacks Consensus estimate of $1.79 per share by 7.6%.
By business segment, the Electric Utilities and Infrastructure segment reported income growth of $128 million to $1.4 billion. The Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segment grew by $12 million to $361 million. The gas business serves about 1.6 million customers, with quarterly earnings rising to $532 million from $349 million a year ago.
For the full-year outlook, the company reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $6.55 to $6.80. The current analyst consensus estimate is $6.70. The company also reiterated its long-term goal of achieving 5% to 7% compound annual EPS growth through 2030. Management expressed confidence in reaching the upper end of that range starting in 2028.
The "Power Provider" in the AI Era
Duke is transforming from a traditional regulated utility into an essential "power infrastructure provider" for the AI era. A Wedbush report described this shift as "The Great Power Pivot," where the utilities sector is transitioning from a defensive to a growth investment. A previous Bank of America industry report noted that the power demand from AI data centers is pushing the utilities sector to the forefront of market attention. As hyperscale cloud providers' AI infrastructure budgets reach approximately $750 billion in 2026, the bottleneck effect of power supply is becoming increasingly pronounced.
For investors, Duke offers a unique investment thesis: it is not an AI chip company or a cloud service provider, but rather the "power provider" for AI computing infrastructure. Regardless of which tech giant wins the AI race, their data centers will require electricity. As AI power demand expands from the 7.6 GW of signed projects to the 15.4 GW under negotiation and broader potential demand, Duke's growth narrative is just beginning to unfold.
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