Tesla Short Squeezes Gone For Now

seekingalpha2021-07-14

Summary Short interest drops to another multi-year low. Less than 4.5% of share float is now short. Death cross occurred, now shares look for a technical base. Over the past decade, perhaps the ...

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Comments

Jli15
2021-07-14
Jli15
900 by year end
LHJarsenal
2021-07-14
LHJarsenal
Like n comment.
ZuYangKennet
2021-07-14
ZuYangKennet
Wait for year end
ee22
2021-07-14
ee22
Still low woa...
Jimmy365
2021-07-14
Jimmy365
Support
Jlhyz
2021-07-14
Jlhyz
Comment and like please
- SK118:
  ok

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With poor fundamentals and the company failing to meet many growth targets, critics have been very vocal. In the last two years, however, the number of bearish bets against the stock has collapsed, reaching a new multi-year low with the latest data out this week.\nWhen I covered this Tesla itema couple of months ago, short interest was down to about 41.4 million shares. At that point, the number of shares short was down more than 52% over the past year. Since then, we've had four bi-monthly updates, with three of them showing declines. The end of June data was released on Monday, showing the new low seen in the chart below.\n\n(Source: NASDAQ Tesla short interest page,seen here)\nIn the second half of last month, almost 5.3 million shares short were covered, so the total decline since my last update was another 2 million shares on top of that. The latest total was just under 34.1 million, which is down about 83.5% from just two years earlier. In the past twelve months, there has not been a short interest update where the year over year decline was less than 44.6%. You would figure that the percentage comes down as we start to get much lower year ago comparison figures in the back half of this year.\nA number of years ago, Tesla was one of the most shorted names on the street when looking at percentage of float short. Two years ago, almost 1 in 3 shares of the reported float were short. With the latest update, based on Yahoo! Financefloat data, the number is now down to just 4.40%. Fellow site finviz puts Tesla as the 62nd most shorted namein the S&P 500based on the mid-June data, so not even in the top 12% of names there.\nLast year's substantial rally obviously scared a number of short sellers away. The business is also in a much different position now, as multiple capital raises have improved the balance sheet significantly and debt conversions have raised the outstanding share count but greatly reduced total borrowings. As the chart below shows, the analyst average is approaching $5.00 for non-GAAP earnings per share this year, which would be the highest expectation for 2021 since back in October 2016.\n\n(Source: Seeking Alpha analyst estimates page,seen here)\nI'm waiting to see if Tesla expectations rise a bit in the next couple of weeks. At the beginning of this month, the companybasically met street expectationsthat were taken down a bit late in Q2. Since then, Tesla launched a standard range version of its Made in China Model Y, a vehicle that starts for nearly 21% less (after subsidies) than the long range variant. Also, made in China Model Y vehicles will be exported starting this quarter, so consumers in certain European countries will get the Model Y even before the Berlin factory is up and running. With new S/X production ramping up and the Shanghai factory nearing full capacity, you would expect analysts to starting thinking about 850k-900k deliveries this year.\nWe are just a couple of weeks away from Tesla's Q2 earnings report, as the company will report on Monday, July 26th. Since the production and delivery report, the average revenue estimate has dipped ever so slightly from $11.36 billion to $11.35 billion, as the street was expecting more of a Model S/X mix. On the bottom line, things are up a penny, with the average now at $0.97 in non-GAAP EPS. I'll have more color on Q2 as we get closer to the report.\nAs I've discussed in many recent Tesla articles, the stock itself in recent months was headed for the dreaded technical death cross. That event finally happened last Friday, as evidenced on the chart below. Moving forward, I'll be watching to see what happens if shares do test these moving averages again in the short term. If the 50-day (purple line) can get back above the 200-day (orange line), it would likely form a technical support base that could help the stock to trend higher.\n\n(Source: Yahoo! Finance)\nAs the first half of 2021 came to a close, short interest in Tesla declined again to a new multi-year low. Less than 35 million shares are now short the name, with bearish bets down more than 83% from just two years ago. With the name no longer one of the most shorted names on the street, a short squeeze is likely out of the question. Thus, investors should only worry about the fundamentals at this point, as we wait to see the Q2 earnings report in a few weeks. That major event will determine if this stock can stay above its key moving averages as we wait for the next set of major catalysts.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":144373785,"gmtCreate":1626270193647,"gmtModify":1703756753273,"author":{"id":"3561543255383101","authorId":"3561543255383101","name":"Jli15","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561543255383101","authorIdStr":"3561543255383101"},"htmlText":"900 by year end","listText":"900 by year end","text":"900 by year end","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144373785","repostId":1166729175,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":144975433,"gmtCreate":1626265264322,"gmtModify":1703756620496,"author":{"id":"3578967818815253","authorId":"3578967818815253","name":"LHJarsenal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0d7e1e2167d189c3611e1bcef48e104","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578967818815253","authorIdStr":"3578967818815253"},"htmlText":"Like n comment.&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment.&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144975433","repostId":1166729175,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":144976437,"gmtCreate":1626265108629,"gmtModify":1703756617220,"author":{"id":"3577138342407985","authorId":"3577138342407985","name":"ZuYangKennet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb7985b6cc690772e1a7cd7b2492a49","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577138342407985","authorIdStr":"3577138342407985"},"htmlText":"Wait for year end","listText":"Wait for year end","text":"Wait for year end","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144976437","repostId":1166729175,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":144927586,"gmtCreate":1626263422145,"gmtModify":1703756582204,"author":{"id":"4087614241741070","authorId":"4087614241741070","name":"ee22","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/028308438db45c2a37d707ada16c5045","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087614241741070","authorIdStr":"4087614241741070"},"htmlText":"Still low woa...","listText":"Still low woa...","text":"Still low woa...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144927586","repostId":1166729175,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":144099630,"gmtCreate":1626251130520,"gmtModify":1703756354813,"author":{"id":"3562019478826489","authorId":"3562019478826489","name":"Jimmy365","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0b5ef01e17ff83b62385dd919d36027","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3562019478826489","authorIdStr":"3562019478826489"},"htmlText":"Support","listText":"Support","text":"Support","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144099630","repostId":1166729175,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":145780299,"gmtCreate":1626245666711,"gmtModify":1703756252864,"author":{"id":"3578092998513325","authorId":"3578092998513325","name":"Jlhyz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a05d401ae56ca5fc2b7c0a097a1e24b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578092998513325","authorIdStr":"3578092998513325"},"htmlText":"Comment and like please&nbsp;","listText":"Comment and like please&nbsp;","text":"Comment and like 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