Edible Oils Market Overview Market News and Key Data
Price Performance In the futures market, the palm oil contract 2609 closed this week at 9,778 yuan per ton, up 286 yuan week-on-week, an increase of 3.0%. The soybean oil contract 2609 closed at 8,527 yuan per ton, rising 61 yuan week-on-week, a gain of 0.72%. The rapeseed oil contract 2609 ended the week at 9,697 yuan per ton, increasing by 237 yuan week-on-week, up 2.5%. In the spot market, palm oil spot prices in Guangdong reached 9,640 yuan per ton, up 240 yuan week-on-week, a rise of 2.55%, with the spot basis P09 at -138, down 46 yuan from the previous week. In Tianjin, grade-one soybean oil spot prices were 8,740 yuan per ton, increasing by 120 yuan per ton week-on-week, up 1.39%, with the spot basis Y09 at +213, up 59 yuan. In Jiangsu, grade-four rapeseed oil spot prices stood at 10,200 yuan per ton, up 150 yuan week-on-week, a gain of 1.49%, with the spot basis OI09 at +503, down 87 yuan.
Palm Oil Supply and Demand On the supply side, data from the Southern Peninsular Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) showed that from April 1-20, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 31.13% month-on-month, with fresh fruit bunch yield rising by 29.80% and oil extraction rate up by 0.20%. According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), Malaysia's crude palm oil production from April 1-20 increased by 17.52% compared to the same period last month. Production in Peninsular Malaysia rose by 20.76%, Sabah by 11.61%, Sarawak by 19.62%, and Eastern Malaysia by 13.82%. This week (April 16-23), six new palm oil purchase vessels were added for China, with four for June shipment and two for August. During this statistical period, total palm oil transactions at key domestic oil mills amounted to 700 tons, with a daily average of 140 tons, a decrease of 360 tons from the previous week's daily average, down 72%. Inventory data from Mysteel surveys showed that as of April 17, 2026 (Week 16), commercial palm oil inventories in key regions nationwide stood at 724,400 tons, down 12,800 tons week-on-week, a decrease of 1.74%, but up 340,000 tons year-on-year from 384,400 tons, an increase of 88.45%.
Soybean Oil Supply and Demand Supply-side data from the General Administration of Customs indicated that China imported 4.019 million tons of soybeans in March 2026, down 1.957 million tons from February, a decrease of 32.8%, but up 516,000 tons year-on-year compared to March 2025, an increase of 14.7%. Cumulative soybean imports for January-March 2026 reached 16.566 million tons, down 547,000 tons year-on-year from the same period in 2025, a decrease of 3.1%. According to Mysteel's survey of national oil mills, the actual soybean crush volume in Week 17 (April 18-24) was 1.6293 million tons, down 136,300 tons from the previous week and 124,600 tons lower than estimated; the actual operating rate was 44.86%. For Week 18 (April 25-May 1), the estimated crush volume is 1.6273 million tons, slightly lower than this week's actual crush by 2,000 tons; the estimated operating rate is 44.81%, down 0.05 percentage points from this week's actual rate. During this statistical period, total bulk soybean oil transactions at key domestic oil mills were 69,300 tons, with a daily average of 15,390 tons, down 9.06% week-on-week. Inventory data from 114 surveyed samples showed that as of April 17, 2026, national commercial soybean oil inventories were 1.0077 million tons, up 13,600 tons week-on-week, an increase of 1.37%, and up 263,200 tons year-on-year, a rise of 35.35%.
Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand According to Mysteel statistics, as of April 17, the rapeseed crush volume at coastal oil mills was 44,000 tons, up 16,000 tons from the previous period. Canadian imported rapeseed is arriving in batches during April-May, and domestic oil mills' crushing schedules are gradually being implemented. Oil mills in Hainan have already commenced the first batch of rapeseed crushing, signaling the initial recovery of rapeseed processing capacity. Subsequently, major coastal oil mills in Dongguan and Xiamen are planning to restart rapeseed processing lines. As raw material arrivals steadily increase, crushing capacity for rapeseed products in multiple regions is expected to gradually recover, leading to a phased increase in rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil supply. Mysteel data shows that as of April 17, rapeseed oil production at coastal oil mills was 18,400 tons, up 6,600 tons from the previous period. With the recent batch arrivals of Canadian imported rapeseed, raw material inventories at coastal oil mills are being replenished, significantly improving the previously tight supply situation. As oil mill operating rates for rapeseed lines steadily recover and overall crush volumes gradually increase, rapeseed oil market output is expected to see sustained growth, further easing supply tightness. According to Mysteel, rapeseed oil withdrawals at coastal oil mills as of April 17 were 14,000 tons, up 7,600 tons from the previous period. Currently, rapeseed meal supply at domestic oil mills primarily fulfills previously signed basis contracts and spot orders, with limited new order volume. Downstream withdrawals are proceeding orderly according to schedules, with overall outbound节奏平稳顺畅, maintaining stable market circulation without concentrated withdrawals or panic selling. Inventory data shows national imported rapeseed stocks at 111,000 tons, down 29,000 tons week-on-week; coastal oil mill rapeseed oil stocks were 22,000 tons, up 4,000 tons week-on-week.
Market Analysis This week, the three major edible oils experienced gains followed by consolidation, with variations among varieties. Palm oil was primarily supported by high crude oil prices and expectations of El Niño weather in the second half of the year, with noticeable capital inflows driving it higher. Soybean oil was buoyed by export expectations and transmission from U.S. soybean oil, but domestic oil mill operating rate recovery and substantial Q2 supply pressure limited gains. Rapeseed oil showed relative strength due to cost support from rising ICE canseed prices and relatively low domestic rapeseed oil inventories. Palm oil performed strongly this week, with soybean-palm and rapeseed-palm spreads remaining inverted. As of April 24 closing, the soybean-palm 09 contract spread was -1,251, and the rapeseed-palm 09 contract spread was -81.
Looking ahead, for soybean oil, according to the USDA Crop Progress Report, U.S. soybean planting reached 12% as of the week ending April 19, above the five-year average of 5%, indicating a faster planting pace. CONAB's crop progress report showed Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest at 88.1% as of April 18, with the agency raising its production forecast by 1.2 million tons from March's 177.85 million tons, confirming South America's bumper crop and shifting market focus to North America. Currently during Brazil's peak soybean export season, Mysteel estimates Brazil's April exports will exceed 16 million tons. Due to Middle East geopolitical issues significantly raising fertilizer and fuel prices, market expectations point to higher soybean planting costs this year. Under pressure from South American soybean supplies and rising planting costs, CBOT soybeans continue to trade within a narrow range. Customs data shows China's March soybean imports at 4.019 million tons, with January-March imports at 16.566 million tons, down 547,000 tons year-on-year. Mysteel data indicates Q2 will see peak arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, with total arrivals expected to exceed 30 million tons. April-June arrivals are estimated at approximately 7.93 million, 11.5 million, and 11 million tons, up 12.3% year-on-year. As of April 21, domestic port soybean inventories reached 5.4689 million tons, with expectations for continued accumulation and soon-to-rise oil mill operating rates. Additionally, current soybean oil inventory levels are significantly higher than last year, continuously pressuring prices. However, strong international competitiveness of domestic soybean oil prices this year is expected to boost exports, supporting consumption. With ongoing Middle East volatility keeping crude oil prices high, soybean oil is likely to oscillate between crude oil support and supply pressure, following crude and palm oil trends.
For palm oil, Indonesian energy ministry officials stated that as of April 13, Indonesia has consumed 3.9 million kiloliters of palm oil-based biodiesel this year and will implement B50 from July 1, further boosting palm oil demand. GAPKI data showed Indonesia exported 3.297 million tons of palm oil products in February, up 17% year-on-year, with February crude palm oil production at 5.015 million tons and end-February stocks at 2.026 million tons. Indonesia's demand growth and low inventories provide long-term support for palm oil prices. MPOA data indicated Malaysia's crude palm oil production from April 1-20 increased 17.52% month-on-month, marking the start of the production growth cycle. High-frequency shipping data showed significant month-on-month declines in Malaysian exports in early-mid April. According to the SEA, recent declines in Indian palm oil imports are due to short-term demand adjustments from high landed prices. Despite high foreign offers, weak origin export data allows for negotiation room, maintaining attractive actual import margins for China. Mysteel data showed six new purchase vessels added this week, indicating ample domestic palm oil supply and weak basis. Overall, market attention is highly focused on potential El Niño extreme weather impacts on palm oil production in the second half of the year, a theme expected to be repeatedly mentioned, intermittently boosting market sentiment. With ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and high international crude oil prices, coupled with active biodiesel policy promotion in Indonesia and Malaysia, price floors are evident, limiting palm oil's downside. Palm oil is expected to have further upside potential after short-term corrections.
For rapeseed oil, U.S.-Iran peace talks over the weekend kept crude oil prices volatile. Supported by rising Chicago soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil prices, along with a weak Canadian dollar, ICE canseed prices increased. As of April 24 closing, the ICE canseed July contract settled at 742.2 Canadian dollars per ton, raising China's import costs for Canadian seed, though crushing margins remained stable. Oil mills are progressively importing Canadian seed. The latest Canadian Grain Commission report showed canseed exports of 138,200 tons for the week ending April 19, down from 284,100 tons the previous week. Year-to-date canseed exports are 6.012 million tons, still below last year's 7.522 million tons for the same period. Future Canadian seed imports are expected to remain normal. Customs data shows China imported 247,000 tons of rapeseed in March, including 184,000 tons of Australian seed; rapeseed oil imports were 187,000 tons, including 135,000 tons from Russia. According to Mysteel, accelerated Canadian seed customs clearance has begun, with Hainan oil mills initiating the first batch of crushing. Guangdong and Fujian crushing volumes are expected to increase next week. Current circulating rapeseed oil inventories in coastal areas remain low, with inland supplies mostly consisting of reserve oil, keeping rapeseed oil basis firm. However, high prices are suppressing downstream demand, resulting in relatively light market activity. Rapeseed oil is expected to remain strong, influenced by crude oil and palm oil, with attention on coastal crusher operations and Canadian seed purchase vessel schedules.
Strategy Neutral
Risk None
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