Gold mounted a significant rebound on Friday, February 6th, potentially driven by escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Spot gold prices briefly climbed back above $4,900 per ounce. The sector's popular ETF, the Nonferrous Metals ETF HuaBao (159876), saw its intraday gain peak at 1.53% before ultimately closing up 0.18% against the market trend, demonstrating resilience.
Capital flows indicate strong confidence in the future performance of the nonferrous metals sector. Over 10 billion yuan in main funds poured into the sector, with the Nonferrous Metals ETF HuaBao (159876) attracting consecutive inflows totaling 40.93 million yuan over the preceding two days.
Regarding constituent stocks, Hunan Gold led gains, rising over 9%. Shenzhen Lithium & Technology advanced more than 6%, and Guocheng Mining climbed over 5%. Among heavyweight stocks, Northern Rare Earth rose more than 3%, and Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) gained nearly 2%.
Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran intensified. Iran unexpectedly warned that it could easily access US military bases, while the US urged its citizens to leave Iran promptly. Additionally, the latest US employment data fell short of expectations, fueling increased anticipation for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. These factors likely benefited gold prices, with spot gold surging over 2.5% at one point, reclaiming the $4,900 per ounce level.
CITIC Futures noted that, in the short term, investor expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy have been fluctuating. The sell-off in precious metals has impacted the nonferrous metals sector. However, considering downstream pre-holiday stocking demand, a rapid price decline is expected to stimulate consumption. Improvements in supply and demand may help stabilize prices. From a medium to long-term perspective, risks to the Federal Reserve's independence and expectations of a weaker US dollar persist. The overall expectation for improved supply and demand also remains, suggesting the nonferrous metals sector will likely maintain a volatile but relatively strong trend. Price movements for basic metals like copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel are viewed favorably.
Sinolink Securities believes a significant shift has occurred in the fundamentals of nonferrous metals, with critical turning points emerging in supply, demand, and inventory: 1. On the supply side, low capital expenditures, China's "anti-involution" policies, and resource nationalism overseas are substantially impacting the supply of various nonferrous metal varieties. 2. On the demand side, the past five years were driven by new energy, while the next five years are expected to be propelled by AI, alongside the rebuilding of manufacturing capacity in Europe and the US, further pulling demand. 3. Regarding inventory, this cycle represents a restocking trend driven by deglobalization, potentially associated with a second term for former US President Trump. The global inventory research framework, based on globalization efficiency over the past two decades, is becoming obsolete, to be replaced by a deglobalization inventory cycle.
Guosheng Securities argues that a combination of supply-demand mismatches, accommodative macro policies, and industrial upgrading is creating a resonance effect. This "nonferrous metals feast" is not a short-term pulse but is expected to sustain high profitability for 3-5 years. While the market outlook for nonferrous metals appears bullish, Dongfang Jincheng cautions that short-term risks include profit-taking by speculative funds, which could increase volatility. Huatai Securities recommends a moderate allocation to the nonferrous metals sector, suggesting a weighting of 10%-20% within a fund portfolio. This approach aims to capture potential upside while helping to diversify risk.
[The Nonferrous Metals Trend is Here, A 'Super Cycle' Appears Inevitable] The Nonferrous Metals ETF HuaBao (159876) and its feeder fund (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) track a benchmark index that comprehensively covers industries including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium. It spans different cyclical phases: precious metals (hedge), strategic metals (growth), and industrial metals (recovery). This full-category coverage allows for better capture of the sector's beta trends. Additionally, this ETF is a margin trading security, making it an efficient tool for a one-stop allocation to the nonferrous metals sector.
Recent market volatility may be significant, and short-term price movements are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Investors are advised to make rational investment decisions based on their individual financial situation and risk tolerance, paying close attention to position sizing and risk management.
ETF Fee Information: When subscribing for or redeeming fund shares, subscription/redemption agents may charge a commission of up to 0.5%. Trading fees are subject to the rates charged by the securities company. The ETF does not charge a sales service fee. Feeder Fund Fee Information: For the HuaBao CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF Feeder Fund (Class A), the subscription fee is 1,000 RMB per transaction for amounts of 2 million RMB or more; 0.6% for amounts between 1 million RMB (inclusive) and 2 million RMB; and 1% for amounts below 1 million RMB. The redemption fee is 1.5% for holdings under 7 days and 0% for holdings of 7 days or more. No sales service fee is charged. The HuaBao CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF Feeder Fund (Class C) charges no subscription fee. The redemption fee is 1.5% for holdings under 7 days and 0% for holdings of 7 days or more. A sales service fee of 0.3% is charged.
Risk Disclosure: The Nonferrous Metals ETF HuaBao and its feeder fund passively track the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index. The index's base date is December 31, 2013, and it was launched on July 13, 2015. The index's performance over the past five full calendar years is as follows: 2021: +35.89%; 2022: -19.22%; 2023: -10.43%; 2024: +2.96%; 2025: +91.67%. The index's constituent stocks are adjusted according to its compilation rules, and its historical backtested performance is not indicative of future results. The mention of index constituents herein is for illustrative purposes only; descriptions of individual stocks are not investment recommendations of any form and do not represent the holdings or trading动向 of any fund managed by the management company. The fund manager assesses this fund's risk level as R3-Medium Risk, suitable for investors with a Balanced (C3) or higher risk profile. Suitability matching opinions are subject to the selling institution. All information appearing in this document is for reference only, and investors are solely responsible for any independent investment decisions. Furthermore, any views, analyses, or forecasts herein do not constitute investment advice to readers, and no liability is accepted for any direct or indirect losses resulting from the use of this content. Fund investment carries risks. A fund's past performance is not indicative of its future results. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee the performance of this fund. Invest cautiously in funds.
MACD golden cross signals have formed, and these stocks are performing well.
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