Japan's crude oil imports have sharply contracted due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict, exposing the nation's high dependence on Middle Eastern energy and causing profound impacts on Asia's overall energy supply landscape. Data released by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) on Friday shows that Japan's crude oil imports in April plummeted by nearly 66% year-on-year to 850,000 barrels per day, marking the lowest level since November 1962. This figure reflects the severe impact on the global energy supply chain from shipping obstructions in the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran on February 28 this year. Imports from the Middle East fell by 68% year-on-year, with shipments from Japan's two largest suppliers, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both dropping by over 60%. Concurrently, domestic sales of refined oil products in Japan decreased by 11.3% year-on-year in April to 2.04 million barrels per day, while sales of the petrochemical feedstock naphtha contracted significantly by 35.6%.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit chokepoint for approximately one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), has been effectively controlled by Iran since the war began on February 28, leading to a substantial reduction in crude shipments from the Middle East. According to tanker tracking data from analytics firm Kpler, crude exports from the Middle East from March to May are projected to have fallen by 48% year-on-year, while the decline in global crude exports was only 10%. Among Gulf nations, Saudi exports are estimated to have dropped by 29%, the UAE by 33%, with Kuwait and Iraq seeing declines exceeding 90%. Iran's exports remained largely flat from March to April but are forecasted to have plunged by 87% in May due to a U.S. naval blockade. Several crude tankers have departed the Gulf region, but energy flows through the Strait remain far below pre-war levels. Saudi Arabia is attempting to export crude via alternative routes through the Red Sea, but its overall export capacity has significantly decreased compared to pre-war. The Red Sea route to Asia must pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait near Yemen, where the presence of Iran-aligned Houthi forces poses a potential threat to passage.
Among major global crude importers, Japan has been particularly hard hit. Analysis shows Japan's crude imports from March to May fell by approximately 47% year-on-year, the fourth-largest decline among analyzed countries and the steepest drop among the world's top ten crude importers. Before the conflict, 90% of Japan's crude imports came from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but this share had fallen to 60% by May. To fill the gap, Japan accelerated imports of U.S. crude, increasing its share in Japan's oil imports from 2% in February to over 20% in May. The Japanese government began tapping its strategic petroleum reserves in late March, with current reserves still sufficient to cover over 200 days of domestic consumption. The Prime Minister stated on April 30 that Japan expects to maintain naphtha supply through purchases from the U.S. and other countries until the end of the year and beyond. However, uncertainty remains over whether the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen to free navigation, with many believing Middle East tensions will persist, increasing pressure on Japan to diversify its supply sources.
Supply constraints have propagated down the industrial chain. Refiners in Japan and other parts of Asia further reduced operating rates in April and May. In Japan, gasoline sales in April fell 2.6% year-on-year to 693,875 barrels per day; kerosene sales dropped 13.3% to 120,524 barrels per day; and naphtha sales saw the most significant decline, plunging 35.6% to 406,231 barrels per day. The naphtha shortage has had tangible effects on downstream industries, with Japanese food packaging manufacturers beginning to switch to black-and-white or transparent designs to cope with material scarcity. Globally, naphtha exports from March to May fell by 23%, with exports from the UAE—the largest Middle Eastern naphtha producer—plunging 87%, and Saudi Arabia's falling 27%. Japan, the world's second-largest naphtha importer, saw a 58% decline, the steepest among the top five importing nations.
The impact of this supply shock varies significantly across Asian nations. In Southeast Asia, Vietnam saw the largest crude import decline at 51%, while Malaysia's fell 43%. Some emerging market countries, constrained by limited petroleum reserves due to fiscal limitations, have experienced sales disruptions of refined products. In contrast, China and India have been less affected. China's crude imports from March to May are projected to have fallen 18% year-on-year; India's decline over the same period was about 3%, and it is actively seeking alternative supplies from Russia and Venezuela. Europe overall has shown greater resilience than Asia, benefiting from diversified supply sources including the North Sea, the United States, North Africa, and the Caspian region. From March to May, Greece's crude imports grew 34%, the UK's increased 9%, and Spain's rose 7%.
Regarding LNG, Japan's imports from the Middle East constitute a relatively lower share, with imports declining 11%, less than the drops for crude and naphtha. However, a major Qatari production facility was attacked in late March, losing 17% of its capacity. A senior Qatari official stated that restoring production could take three to five years. Qatar accounts for 20% of global LNG exports, and its exports have plummeted by 94%.
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