IFBH, once a market darling, has seen its fortunes reverse dramatically since its high-profile IPO. As of the latest close, its shares traded at HKD 18.05, with a market cap of HKD 4.81 billion—down nearly HKD 8 billion (62.0%) from its peak.
The company’s rapid rise and fall have stunned investors. In June, IFBH set records as the fastest Hong Kong-listed food and beverage firm in 2025, securing approval just 67 days after filing. Its IPO drew frenzied demand: the Hong Kong public offering was oversubscribed by 2,682.35x, while the international placement saw 22.9x oversubscription. Shares surged 42.1% on debut and peaked at HKD 48.8.
However, the rally proved short-lived. Excluding a minor bump in September when added to the Stock Connect, IFBH’s stock has trended downward, losing 51.1% in two months with a meager 0.6% average daily turnover.
**Dependence on China and Coconut Water Intensifies Amid Slowing Growth** IFBH’s H1 2025 revenue grew 31.5% YoY to USD 94.5 million, but net profit fell 4.8% to USD 15.0 million. Adjusted profit (excluding one-time IPO costs) rose 13.9%, a far cry from its 100%+ growth in 2023–2024.
China accounted for 92.6% of revenue (up 29.8% YoY), while coconut water sales made up 96.9% (up 33.3%). Both figures reflect deepening reliance on a single market and product, even as growth rates lag behind historical and industry benchmarks.
Competition in China’s coconut water sector has turned brutal, with retail prices now 27% below average production costs. IFBH’s market share plunged to 36.4% in Q1 2025 from ~56% a year earlier.
**Cash Flow Strain and Looming Lockup Expiry** To retain market share, IFBH extended lenient credit terms, driving trade receivables up 194.4% to USD 20.7 million. This contributed to a 37.5% drop in operating cash flow.
Eleven cornerstone investors—including UBS, Sequoia China, and Singapore’s GIC—hold 26.8% of pre-IPO shares, now underwater by 35.1%. Their lockup expires on December 29, raising fears of a selloff that could further pressure the stock.
With one month until the deadline, IFBH faces a critical test of investor confidence amid deteriorating fundamentals and heightened market risks.
Comments